Wes Welker vs. Julian Edelman debate: Recency bias has Patriots fans forgetful of Welker's dominance
FOXBOROUGH, Mass. - There have been a plethora of great receivers that have worn a New England Patriots jersey and left their mark on the organization; Stanley Morgan, Randy Moss, Troy Brown, Irving Fryar, to name a few.
Over the past two decades, there have been two Patriots slot receivers that have sparked a recent debate as to which was more dominant during their prime years in the NFL.
Wes Welker, a Patriot from 2007-2012, found the prime years of his NFL career during his stint in New England, recording one of the best six-year stretches across the board by an NFL receiver ever.
Julian Edelman, who was drafted by the Patriots in 2009 and ultimately took over Welker's role once he left to join the Broncos, has been a household name for the past nine years in New England and will go down as one of the best postseason wideouts of all-time in the league.
So, NBC Sports Boston ran a poll on their Twitter page asking the question: Wes Welker 2007-2012 or Julian Edelman 2013-2018?
Here were the results:
Screenshot of NBCSB Twitter poll
That is surprising, to say the least. But it is understandable. Recency bias plays a part in why 71 percent of Twitter pollers voted Edelman as the better receiver during the aforesaid timeframe compared to Welker in his Patriots tenure. Edelman's dominance in the postseason, along with Welker's horrific drop in Super Bowl XLVI also very likely played a role in the pollers giving the edge to the former Kent State QB.
But does that one major mishap by Welker tell the whole story? No.
Let's look at each player's regular season stats during their "prime" years.
| Games | Catches | Yards | Touchdowns | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Wes Welker (2007-12) | 93 | 672 | 7,459 | 37 |
Julian Edelman (2013-18) | 67 | 430 | 4,676 | 26 |
Edelman has two fewer years of stats to show for because of the timeframe and a torn ACL that put him out for the entirety of the 2017 season. Welker's ridiculous stat line during his tenure in New England, coupled with the extra two years of play gives him a serious advantage when looking at stat lines. But Edelman didn't help his case either by missing 13 games during the other four seasons while Welker only missed three in six seasons.
However, let's be fair and compare their postseason stats as well.
| Games | Catches | Yards | Touchdowns | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Wes Welker (2007-12) | 9 | 69 | 686 | 4 |
Julian Edelman (2013-18) | 13 | 106 | 1,337 | 3 |
The postseason stats tell a similar story, but with the roles reversed. Four more games for Welker could have put him in contention for surpassing Edelman's catches/yards totals, or at the very least would have had him not very far behind.
It's important to look at the roster surrounding the two as well.
During Welker's tenure, Randy Moss broke onto the scene and had a historical season in 2007 and was one of the best receivers in the league until 2010 when the Patriots cut ties with him. Welker had 300 more receiving yards and 111 catches in 2008 when Brady went down for the season and Matt Cassel was the starting QB for most of the season.
From there, New England drafted Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez in 2010 and both tight ends made their mark early on within New England's offense, creating a two-headed monster that the NFL had not seen before. Gronkowski surpassed 1,000 yards in his 2nd year in the league and Hernandez nearly did as well during the same season in 2011.
For Edelman, 2013 was his breakout campaign (105 catches, 1,056 yards, and six touchdowns), a season in which the only stronger receiving option on the roster was Gronkowski, but he only played in seven games that year. Players like Aaron Dobson, Keshawn Martin, Kenbrell Thompkins, and Brandon LaFell were the no. 2's in the receiver grouping during the five-year span. Edelman was also the beneficiary of six postseason games in which Gronkowski was not active, making him the de facto no. 1 passing option.
Let's also not forget who mentored Edelman when he first came into the NFL. His first three seasons in the league he had to learn a completely new position, and who better to learn from than Welker, who groomed the former QB for three seasons before departing for the Broncos. They played the same exact role within New England's offense (though Edelman does a bit more on the outside than Welker used too) and you can bet Edelman learned a lot from the veteran slot receiver during the early stages of his career.
If you want to say 2013-2018 Edelman is the better of the two receivers, it is solely based on what he did in the postseason. Plus, you're also making the argument that Welker wasn't as clutch in the postseason as Edelman was because of some crucial drops in big games. But we need to be looked at his the overall body of work; if we are talking about consistency, availability, reliability, and overall production, Welker takes the cake.
