Why Jarrett Stidham's Auburn Tape Can Barely Be Used to Project His Success as Patriots' Starter

"You'll be a first-round pick in the NFL here in this offense. You're going to get lost there."

What seems to be a common argument when trying to determine if quarterback Jarrett Stidham can succeed as a starter in the NFL is where he was selected in the 2019 NFL Draft. 

As a fourth-round draft pick - 133rd overall - being a Day 3 pick doesn't bode well for those who try to defend Stidham's potential ability as a starter after one year in a complex New England Patriots system. "If he has the ability, then why wasn't he drafted in the first two rounds, or at the very least in the third round?" is a question in some variation can be found on the Twitterverse. 

Well, while the ability is there, what many scouts and coaches look at to evaluate talent in the pre-draft process is tape. And the tape didn't work in Stidham's favor, especially in 2018, which was his last season at Auburn. He earned a 61.0 passing grade from PFF that year - which was down from 75.0 in 2017 - and had a measly 79.9 passing grade from a clean pocket, which is not a great number for a QB that doesn't have pressure in his face. 

So why is there still so much talk that Stidham is capable of being the successor to Tom Brady in New England despite the college tape - which is the biggest sample size we have of Stidham throwing the football - not proving that? It's because - as college coaches and NFL scouts have explained - Stidham's college tape provides little detail into what he can do at the next level, even though that didn't stop evaluators from holding his play at Auburn against him. 

"We recruited him when he left Baylor, and we kept telling him he can't go to the SEC and play at Auburn or Florida," one Big 12 coach told Bleacher Report. "Neither one of those teams had any recent history of throwing the ball with any kind of efficiency. Our pitch was simple: You'll be a first-round pick in the NFL here in this offense. You're going to get lost there."

An NFL scout also went into more detail telling Bleacher Report how Auburn's offense is built for a mobile QB. 

"[Stidham] is playing in a phone booth between the hashes, and he has multiple play fakes to get through, and then he's supposed to look up, go through progressions and find the safeties—in the SEC, against those defensive linemen? Come on, man," another scout says. "What did they expect from him?

"That stuff is a lot easier to pull off if you have a quarterback who is a legitimate threat to beat you running the ball. Everyone is crowding the box to slow down the QB run, and the first [passing] read off the play fakes is usually the throw to make—and the receiver usually has separation."

The scout stops here for emphasis, because it's not so much a criticism of the Auburn offense as it is the reality of two lost seasons for Stidham within it.

"He had first-round talent that was mucked up by a system that didn't fit him," the scout continues. "He looked good at the Senior Bowl. He looked good at the combine. But we're a tape-is-your-resume league. And that tape at Auburn had some brutal stretches. Enough to make a lot of personnel departments push him down—and in some cases, off—draft boards."

Yes, there are four games of preseason tape from Stidham's rookie season in the NFL that can also be used to evaluate how he may perform as a starter in the NFL. And that tape bodes well in his favor. But what gets misused in arguments about Stidham's future is how he performed as a starter in college. 

Understanding why the Patriots like him so much has little to do with Stidham's tape at Auburn or where he was drafted. Instead, it has to do with his physical abilities as a passer, which weren't displayed all too often during his time in the SEC but were flashed at the NFL Combine, the Senior Bowl and his Pro Day. The mental aspect of his game - which was displayed in meeting rooms with scouts and coaches - doesn't entirely show up on tape either. 

So, instead of looking at his tape from his days at Auburn, what should be looked at is how many scouts and coaches believe Stidham's ability was hampered by a college system that didn't work to his strengths. More importantly, Bill Belichick - who has a history of developing talent at the quarterback position - drafted Stidham and seemingly looks ready to have him compete for a starting job in 2020. Because of that, Stidham should be looked at as a QB who is capable of being a starter in the NFL until he proves otherwise.