Are We There Yet? Patriots Potential Playoff-Clinching Scenarios Heading Into Week Seventeen

The 9-6 New England Patriots are set to face the 2-13 Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, January 2, 2022 at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts.

The New England Patriots are entering Week Seventeen of the 2021 season at 9–6, having dropped their Week Sixteen matchup with the Buffalo Bills 33-21 at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts. While their loss to the Bills’ was far from ideal, the Patriots still have control of their own postseason fate. Though their grasp on the top spots in the Division and Conference have notably decreased, New England’s chances of qualifying for the postseason are still significantly strong — chances that will, however, be put to the test as the Pats prepare to host the Jacksonville Jaguars, this Sunday at Gillette Stadium.

Despite last week’s loss, the oddsmakers are heavily favoring the home team this weekend. Per the latest lines at BetOnline.ag, the Patriots are entering Sunday’s matchup in Foxboro as 15.5 point favorites. The over/under has been set at 41.

Should the Patriots defeat the Jaguars on Sunday, all eyes will be on the Miami Dolphins (+3.5 vs, Tennessee Titans) and Las Vegas Raiders (+6, vs. Indianapolis Colts). With a Dolphins or Raiders loss, coupled with a New England victory, the Patriots will return to the postseason after a one-year absence.

The Dolphins and Raiders are both listed as underdogs by BetOnline.ag heading into Week 17. Miami will visit the Tennessee Titans (-3.5) at a projected 3.5-point disadvantage, while Las Vegas will go up against the Indianapolis Colts as six-point underdogs.

Here are New England’s playoff-clinching scenarios heading into Week Seventeen:

NE win + MIA loss or tie OR

NE win + LV loss or tie OR

NE tie + MIA loss + LV loss + LAC loss or tie OR

NE tie + MIA loss + BAL loss or tie OR

NE tie + LV loss + LAC loss + BAL loss + PIT loss or tie OR

NE tie + LV loss + LAC loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + MIA win + BUF win

-as of 29 Dec 2021

*There are other clinching scenarios for the Patriots that involve multiple tie games.

Odds Have Slipped for Division, Conference Supremacy

Once considered a strong favorite to reclaim the AFC East title, the Pats now find themselves looking up at Buffalo with two games remaining on their schedule. Heading into Sunday, the Bills are -700 favorites in the race for the AFC, with the Patriots’ behind them at +400. Having won their last seven straight, the Miami Dolphins remain in the race, albeit as an overwhelming long shot at +4000.

The Pats odds to win the conference title were also adversely affected by their Week Sixteen loss. In the overall race for the AFC, BetOnline has New England at +700 to be crowned kings of the AFC, trailing only the Kansas City Chiefs at +155, the Buffalo Bills at +425 and the Indianapolis Colts at +700, owning the head-to-head tiebreaker over New England.

While the odds are subject to change between now and Sunday, the Pats return to prominence means that they will once again be very much a part of the action when it comes to the sports books.

The Patriots and Jaguars will hit the practice fields on Thursday, in anticipation of their post-New Years’ Day duel at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts on Sunday, January 2, 2022 at 1:00pm ET.