The Many Ways to Project How Jarrett Stidham Will Perform in 2020

The many ways to predict how 2019 fourth-round pick Jarrett Stidham will perform as the Patriots' starting quarterback in 2020.

The New England Patriots' offseason has been a whirlwind quarantined within the borders of a circus if you listen to local talk radio. “Where’s Tom Brady going?” monopolized half of the NFL's offseason, and while we now know where he's going, what we didn't know for some time is who would replace Brady under center in New England.

However, after many rumors and speculation surrounding who would succeed Brady in Foxboro, there seems to be only one option to become the Patriots' starting quarterback next season: Jarrett Stidham. 

Now, let's go over every way possible to predict how Stidham will perform this upcoming season. 

2020 With Stidham Taking the Snaps

Tom Brady has been New England's starting quarterback since Mo Lewis re-organized Drew Bledsoe’s internal organs with a bone-crushing hit that ended his 2001 season and eventually, his career, in New England. Brady has taken the majority of snaps and started 14 games or more in 17 of the 19 seasons that followed. That’s an astounding number of snaps, practices and weekly gameplans.

2020 is going to look like something many Patriots fans have never seen, while others will struggle to remember. We all remember Steve Grogan, Tony Eason, and Hugh Millen right? They were a few of the starters before Bledsoe, who was before Brady. We are in completely unfamiliar and unknown territory. So, I went looking for anything that could shed some light on how New England will manage this new era; the Jarrett Stidham era.

I examined three snapshots in time to see what we could potentially get in 2020. I examined Drew Bledsoe's last season as a starter in 2000, Tom Brady’s rookie season in 2001 to compare to the previous season with Bledsoe, and the 11-5 Matt Cassel audition after Tom Brady’s season ending ACL injury in 2008.

These three samples are small in size and they aren’t perfect comparables to the NFL we are watching today, but they could foreshadow things to come. Those three situations had important factors that could provide some insight into what we might see this season. In 2000, the Patriots had an established, veteran quarterback with a huge arm. In 2001, like Stidham now, they had an inexperienced quarterback in his first season as a starter. In 2008, when Cassel took over for an injured Tom Brady, Josh McDaniels was the Patriots offensive coordinator, preparing game plans with, again, an inexperienced quarterback in his first season as a starter, much like Brady in 2001 and now Stidham in 2020. 

Comparing how the Patriots managed a young, inexperienced Tom Brady in 2001 to what we might expect from Jarrett Stidham in 2020 was a natural place to start. It sounds crazy, and possibly blasphemous, to say this after the incredible career Tom Brady has compiled. But if you were to compare the 199th overall selection in the 2000 draft from Michigan to the 133rd overall pick in 2019 out of Auburn, an argument could be made that Stidham profiled as the better QB prospect on draft day as well as when they both entered their second NFL season.

Before I look at relevant seasons for a roadmap to what the Patriots could be in 2020, let's take a quick look at what Brady was in 2001 compared to his career averages, which is enlightening.

Tom Brady’s First Season - 2001

Stats:

Games Started: 14

Completions: 264

Attempts: 413 (Career Low)

Passing Yards: 2,843 (Career Low)

Touchdowns: 18 (Career Low)

Interceptions: 12 (3rd worst of Career)

Passing Yards Per Game: 189.5 (Career Average: 261.7)

Yards Per Completion:10.8 (Career Average: 11.7)

Quarterback Rating: 86.5 (Career Rating: 97)

Tom Brady wasn’t “Tom Brady” in 2001, but the sample was meaningful. He started 14 games and played in 15 out of 16, which was almost an entire season. It wasn’t a tiny window of a couple games where he played in garbage time or in isolated packages during select moments in select games. Tom “was the guy” for essentially the entire season, like Stidham is expected to be in 2020.

Brady was well below his career norms and had career lows in almost every meaningful category. That’s not a surprise. He was a second-year NFL quarterback in his first real action on a contending team taking over for an established veteran who had in the not-so-distant past been given a confidence inspiring big-money contract extension. The Krafts loved Drew Bledsoe and they showed him the money. It was a difficult situation and Belichick and Weiss managed him that way. I expect the same from Belichick and McDaniels this season.

2020 Projections Based on Past Experiences

I looked at the relevant NFL seasons to see how New England's staffs managed their offenses in the circumstances they had at the time. I thought that the most telling and relevant places to look were passing and rushing attempts and how those teams compared that year to other teams in the league at the time. I examined how often they passed versus how often they ran, both season totals and per game averages. I didn't focus on the results because it was the approach that I believe is most relevant.

I constructed a table with these stats:

* Total Rushing Attempts (R/Att)

* Rushing Attempts Per Game (RAtt/G)

* Total Passing Attempts (P/Att)

* Passing Attempts per Game (PAtt/G)

Next to each statistic I included how they ranked compared to the rest of the league that season. Raw totals are important while league ranking provides perspective.

I examined these stats based on the belief that it is the best way to evaluate how the coaching staff “managed” their quarterback. My assumption being, the more rushes a team attempted the more cautious they were being with their quarterback. The more passing attempts and attempts per game, the more they relied and the more they trusted the QB, i.e. experience. It's clear that experience impacts approach and these NFL seasons and specific circumstances illustrate that while shedding some light on what we will see from Stidham. 

By using the 2000 and 2001 seasons, which were Bledsoe’s last as the full-time starter and Brady’s first after Bledsoe’s injury, I was able to isolate a statistical difference in the approach Belichick and Weiss took when they had an experienced veteran as opposed to an inexperienced second-year guy. Examining Cassel’s one season as the Patriots starter in 2008, I was able to compile a similar comparison. Then, I included New England's 2019 season as a baseline for comparison for projecting Stidham's 2020 performance.

Here is the table so we can compare and contrast the relevant seasons in the hopes of shedding some light on what to expect from Jarrett Stidham in 2020.

Season (QB)	Passing Attempts	Passing Attempts per Game	Rushing Attempts	Rushing Attempts per Game
2000 (Bledsoe)	565 (11th)	35.3 (11th)	424 (18th)	26.5 (18th)
2001 (Brady)	482 (24th)	30.1 (24th)	473 (Tied for 8th)	29.6 (Tied for 8th)
2002 (Brady)	605 (4th)	37.8 (4th)	395 (28th)	24.7 (28th)
2008 (Cassel)	534 (12th)	33.4 (12th)	513 (4th)	32.1 (4th)
2019 (Brady)	620 (5th)	38.8 (5th)	447 (9th)	27.9 (9th)
2020 (Stidham Projected?)	506 (28th)	31.6 (28th)	483 (3rd)	30.1 (3rd)

Drew Bledsoe 2000 vs. Tom Brady 2001

In 2000, under Belichick and Weiss and with Bledsoe as the starter, the New England Patriots attempted over 500 total passes for the eighth straight season in which Bledsoe started at least 12 games and they ranked 11th in the NFL. On top of that, Bledsoe personally threw 500 passes or more in every season that he started at least 15 games. 

In 2001, after Brady took over, the Patriots attempted only 482 passes and ranked 24th in the NFL in total pass attempts. It was the lowest total passing attempts by a Patriots team since Bledsoe was drafted in 1993.

As an offense, they attempted 989 total offensive plays in 2000 and 955 in 2001 - 34 fewer total plays. They rushed the ball 49 more times in 2001 and threw it 83 fewer times. As an offense, they ranked 11th in pass attempts in 2000 with Bledsoe versus 24th in 2001 with Brady. In rushing, they ranked 18th in total attempts with Bledsoe under center while being tied for 8th with Brady taking the snaps.

The team ran a comparable number of total offensive plays while they leaned more heavily on the run game with Brady. Neither quarterback was mobile, they weren’t doing rollouts and quarterback options or anything we see in today’s systems. It’s clear they wanted to manage Brady rather than cut him loose as they had come accustomed to doing with Bledsoe.

Tom Brady 2001 vs. Tom Brady 2002

The Patriots won the 2001 Super Bowl against the St. Louis Rams in what became one of the biggest upsets in playoff history - in any sport. Babe Ruth supposedly called his shot and Joe Namath did too, but the Pats were 14 point dogs, the Rams had league MVP Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk and the “Fastest Team on Turf.” Brady had proved himself with the way he finished that season and the way he led them to a Super Bowl championship in a game nobody thought they could win.

Brady was 11-3 as a starter, he had a completion percentage of 63.9%, ninth best of what turned out to be an extremely successful Patriots career, and while it wasn’t a perfect season, it was a perfect ending. Bledsoe’s days were definitely over and Belichick and Weiss were convinced, this guy (Brady) could play, and the gameplans confirmed it.

Brady made 123 more pass attempts and the Patriots as a team attempted 78 fewer rushes in 2002 than they had in 2001. They jumped to 4th in total pass attempts in 2002 after ranking 24th in 2001.

Matt Cassel 2008

Matt Cassel is one of the more interesting stories you’re ever going to see, and while Jarrett Stidham’s story isn’t all that similar, their potential as quarterbacks is and how the Patriots manage Stidham in 2020 could be too.

The Patriots drafted Cassel in the seventh round of the 2005 NFL draft after a career at the University of Southern California where he was never their starting quarterback. You read that right. Cassel was never the starting quarterback of the USC Trojans and the Patriots still drafted him to one day, potentially, be theirs. 

Tom Brady was the league's MVP after throwing for 4,806 yards and 50 touchdowns in New England's undefeated 2007 regular season. He had led the Patriots to three Super Bowl victories and was already Super Bowl MVP three times by the time Cassel showed up in Foxboro. And now, after only 11 passes during the 2007 season, Matt Cassel was going to have to fill those shoes in 2008.

This is how they did it.

In 2007, the Patriots threw the ball 586 times, fifth most in the NFL, while rushing the ball 451 times, ranking them tied for ninth. In 2008, with Cassel under center, they still threw the ball 534 times, ranking 12th in total pass attempts, while rushing the ball 513 times, ranking them fourth in total rush attempts. They were 11-5 and lost out, both in winning the division and making the playoffs, by a tiebreaker to the Miami Dolphins.

The way the Patriots managed Cassel and the offense surprised me in some ways while not being all that surprising in others. Brady had a historically dominant 2007 and yet, with Cassel, Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels only threw the ball 52 fewer times. Less than four fewer pass attempts per game with a QB that wasn’t able to win the starting QB job in college, nevermind lead a team coming off an undefeated season.

Another surprise was how many times they ran the ball. They rushed the ball over 500 times, only 21 fewer rushing attempts than passing attempts. In 2007, that separation was 135. They were almost a 50/50 run vs. pass split with Cassel. It isn't a surprise to see them run the ball more, but their total rushing attempts exploded in comparison to 2007.

2008 was a sign of the times and it still proves my point: Belichick, Weiss and McDaniels believe in managing inexperienced quarterbacks by limiting their exposure and the potential for mistakes. The Patriots attempted a lot of passes in 2008, but by percentage they ran the ball more than they ever had before or since.

Cassel only threw 11 interceptions in 2008. Brady had never thrown fewer than 12 in a season up to that point in his career. Cassel was extremely efficient in comparable total attempts and the Patriots still ran the ball almost 50% of the time any way, something they had never done before or since. It’s remarkable how many attempts Cassel threw in 2008, but what’s more noteworthy is that even with a quarterback who appears to have earned their confidence on the field, the Patriots stuck to their approach - run the ball with an inexperienced guy.

Tom Brady 2019

We have been hearing, either from Pro Football Focus going back almost a decade at this point or the local Boston media recently, that Tom Brady is in decline. It’s one of the pillars holding up the argument that moving on in 2020 makes sense. He’s old. The cliff is coming. He can’t do this for two or three or four more years. A smart organization doesn’t commit to a 40+ year old QB for more than one year and marginal dollars. He doesn’t deserve to be paid like a Top five QB.

In 2019, Brady ranked fifth in passing yards (4,057 ), 13th in touchdowns (24), 87th in interceptions (8) and the Patriots were 12-4 on their way to another division title. 

But diehard football fans and saber-metric warriors would argue that the raw numbers aren’t the telling ones.

According to ESPN.com, Brady ranked 19th in Passer Rating (RTG), 17th in Adjusted QBR and he had a completion percentage of 60.8%, 27th overall (23rd among quarterbacks that started at least 11 games). This is where the decline argument lives.

In 2019, Brady attempted 613 passes - the most since 2015 and second most since 2013. The raw totals can be deceiving. Like Cassel in 2008, the total pass attempts were high in 2019 because the Patriots ran the third most plays from scrimmage in the NFL (1,095). The Patriots have consistently been a dominant offense so they always run a lot of plays, but they are running the ball more now than they did earlier in Brady’s reign.

New England ranked 9th in the league in 2019 (447), third in 2018 (478), 11th in 2017 (448) and third in 2016 (482) in rushing attempts. Between 2011 and 2013 the Patriots attempted 600 passes or more all three seasons and attempted over 600 passes again in 2015 after throwing 582 times in 2014.

The fact of the matter is that even with Brady, even with a banged up offensive line, and even with a relatively pedestrian running back, they are attempting to run the ball more consistently than in the past. They spent a first round pick on Sony Michel in 2018 - something very few teams are willing to do as the current NFL functions. It isn’t reasonable to expect them to run the ball less and pass it more without Brady in 2020.

Projecting Stidham and the 2020 Patriots

Bill Belichick’s history with inexperienced quarterbacks and rational, common sense when it comes to inexperienced quarterbacks in the NFL in general, tells us that the Patriots are going to manage Stidham and minimize the potential negative impact he could have in his first season as a starter. The best way to project what to expect in 2020 is to look back at the Patriots from 2019, reduce the number of opportunities Brady had to more closely reflect what Stidham is likely to have, and then compare those offensive totals - passing attempts and rushing attempts - to what other teams in similar circumstances did in 2019.

2019 Brady vs. 2020 Stidham

Even in a down year the Patriots offense still ranked 15th in total yards (5,564) and yards per game (354), seventh in points per game (26.3), eighth in passing yards per game (247.6) and 18th in rushing yards per game (106.4) in 2019. The main reason why they were able to rank so highly in so many categories is because they ranked third in total plays from scrimmage (1,095) - one fewer than the second ranked Atlanta Falcons.

You could argue that points per game is a relatively fair reflection of how well an offense performed, but even that category is deceptive because the more plays a team runs the more likely they are to score points. Does anyone who watched the 2019 Patriots believe they were a top 10 scoring offense or passing offense like their ranking suggests according to points per game and passing yards per game? In New England's case, they were able to run so many offensive plays because of how well their defense played. It all flowed downhill from there.

2019 Impact of the Patriots Defense on The Offense

In 2019, their defense allowed the fewest yards per game (275.9), total points (225), points per game (14.1), tied for the fewest yards per play (4.7) and had the lowest 3rd down percentage (24) of any team in the NFL according to NFL.com. There are a few reasons for this. One, they were good. Stephon Gilmore was a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year winner and on the whole, the Patriots got after it, especially in the first half of the season, which leads to reason number two. They played an extremely easy schedule and played more bad quarterbacks and bad offenses than almost any team in football. They faced the New York Jets, Buffalo Bills, and Miami Dolphins twice each as well as the Washington Redskins, New York Giants and the worst team in the NFL, the Cincinnati Bengals. Even their tougher opponents often had disappointing years, like the Cleveland Browns. 11 of their 16 games were against teams that ranked in the bottom 14 in points per game and only five teams on their schedule averaged more than 23 points per game.

The Patriots played an easy schedule and their defense, for large portions of the season, dominated their opponents, providing the offense with more than their fair share of plays to rack up yards and points. We aren’t going to see the same in 2020. The defense lost some key contributors (Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins) and while they got more athletic, they will also be significantly more inexperienced and their schedule exponentially more difficult.

Patriots fans can expect a less efficient offense with fewer plays from scrimmage both because of that inefficiency and because the defense isn’t going to be so dominant or provide them with the ball so often.

I expect New England's offensive plays from scrimmage to be closer to 980-1,000 rather than the 1,095 they ran in 2019. That would rank them somewhere between 22nd and 25th rather than third, which is what they ranked in 2019. Teams that ranked in that range in 2019 are the Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Chargers, Oakland Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs, and Cleveland Browns.

I also expect the offensive focus to be something closer to a 55%/45%, possibly 52%/48%, pass-to-run ratio in 2020 compared to 2019 when it was closer to 60%/40% (620 pass attempts vs. 447 rushing attempts). That means fewer total attempts for the offense on the whole and fewer passing attempts for Stidham.

I project Stidham to attempt something between 506-530 passes for 3,200-3,500 passing yards compared to Brady’s 613 attempts and 4,057 yards in 2019. A close statistical comparison from 2019? Ryan Fitzpatrick of the Miami Dolphins - 15 games played, 502 attempts, 3,529 yards.

2019 NFL vs. 2020 Stidham

The Patriots offensive gameplans aren’t going to be the aggressive pass-heavy attacks that teams with elite quarterbacks will have, so we can safely ignore the elite quarterbacks and what they did in 2019. That means we can ignore offenses led by the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Patrick Mahomes, as well as some of the more impressive passing attacks like Dallas with Dak Prescott and Houston with DeShaun Watson. Those are elite guys with track records. At the same time, it’s not fair to compare a Belichick/McDaniels led offense, inexperienced quarterback or not, to what we saw from inextricably bad offenses like the Washington Redskins, Cincinnati Bengals, Chicago Bears, or the Duck Hodges led Pittsburgh Steelers and so on. These offenses lacked even competent quarterback play and in some cases had to make do with poor coaching. Belichick and McDaniels deserve more respect than to be compared to those 2019 offenses.

Here are a few 2019 offenses that I compared in these key categories; passing attempts (P/Att), completions (comp), passing yards (P/Yds), touchdowns/interceptions (TDs/INTs), and rushing attempts (Rush Att). I also cherry picked quarterback situations that looked something similar to what the Patriots could look like in 2020. 

Team/QB	Points Per Game	Comp/Pass Att/Yards	TDs/INT's	Rush Att/Att Per Game
New York Jets/S Darnold	17.2	323/521/3,111	19/16	383/23.9
Denver Broncos/Lock-Flacco	17.6	312/504/3,115	16/10	409/25.6
Miami Dolphins/R Fitzpatrick	19.1	371/615/3,804	22/18	349/21.8
Indy Colts/J Brissett	22.6	307/513/3,108	22/10	471/29.4
Buffalo Bills/Josh Allen	19.6	299/513/3,229	21/12	465/29.1
Chicago Bears/M Trubisky	17.5	371/580/3,291	20/12	395/24.7
NY Giants/Daniel Jones	21.3	376/607/3,731	30/17	362/22.6
Jacksonville Jags/Minshew	18.8	364/589/3,760	24/8	389/24.3

2019 Team-By-Team Comparison

New York Jets - QB Sam Darnold

I was surprised to see how poorly the Jets offense performed in 2019. Many analysts think highly of Sam Darnold and while he missed a few games and it isn’t all his fault, ranking second worst in points per game was a surprise - even for New York.

Darnold was a first round pick, and most analysts would agree that profiles him to be a better NFL quarterback than Stidham. However, both are young, and Darnold would still be considered inexperienced in 2019. That’s where this comparison has merit.

Le’Veon Bell is more talented than what the Patriots have at running back, but neither wide receiving core is elite and Michel and James White probably can do comparable as a pair to what Bell brings on his own, from a skill set perspective.

I expect the Patriots to run more offensive plays as well as a few more running plays than the Jets did in 2019, but overall the raw totals could be comparable. All that being said, I expect the Patriots to be better in 2020. Even with a young, green QB, the Jets 2019 looks like a worst-case scenario for the 2020 Patriots.

Denver Broncos - QB Drew Lock & Joe Flacco

Patriots fans have to hope Stidham can be better than Joe Flacco, and it should result in a better overall offense, more points and a more competitive season than what we saw from 2019’s fifth worse scoring offense in Denver.

Drew Lock looked good in limited opportunities, so while the Patriot offense on the whole is likely to be better, Locks 64.1% completion percentage could be better than what Stidham can provide in his first season.

Miami Dolphins - QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

The Dolphins were a shaky offense in 2019 and that’s why I added them into the mix here. However, Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t what we will see from Stidham. Belichick and McDaniels won’t allow Stidham to have a five interception game or any 60+ passing attempt Sundays like Fitzpatrick has been known to have from time to time.

I expect to see close to 100 fewer pass attempts from Stidham than the Dolphins had in 2019 (614) and 22 touchdowns to 18 interceptions won’t be a ratio the Pats accept either. The raw total attempts and passing yards could end up similar, but it will look very different on the field.

Indianapolis Colts - QB Jacoby Brissett

Ex-Patriot Jacoby Brissett led the Colts to a competitive, but relatively pedestrian overall offensive season in 2019. But they did score 22.6 points per game. They are an interesting comparison because they attempted 513 passes, ran the ball 471 times and ranked 16th overall in points per game. Those are raw totals I wouldn’t be shocked to see for New England, along with a better points per game ranking than I project for the 2020 Patriots.

Brissett and the 2019 Colts is what the Patriots should enter the 2020 season expecting to see, and if that is how Stidham’s first season as a starter plays out, it was a reasonably successful one. Brissett threw for fewer than 3,000 yards - Stidham can do better and be more explosive than that.

Buffalo Bills - QB Josh Allen

Stidham doesn’t have the arm talent, mobility or raw athletic ability that Allen has, but it’s difficult to see how he could be a worse or slower decision maker either. Stidham’s potential ceiling is much lower while his floor is safer than Allen. 

The Bills attempted to manage Allen in 2019 and it worked out fairly well. They made the playoffs, almost won a game and they are a team that could win the AFC East for the first time in what feels like a generation in 2020. Allen may be improving as a decision maker, but Stidham is better suited to be a successful game manager than Allen, making Allen and Stidham an odd couple, but an interesting comparable to scrutinize in 2020.

How the Bills won in 2019 is how the Patriots are going to have to do it in 2020. Manage the quarterback, don’t let him lose games, focus on running the ball and play good defense. Buffalo's defense is better than New England's, but Stidham is less likely to implode than Allen and his first season could be statistically better than Allen’s 2019. Allen's completion percentage was 58.8%, the worst of any starting quarterback in the NFL and he only threw for 3,089 yards, which ranked 23rd in the league.

Allen was inefficient and limited. Stidham could at least be efficient and if he is, maybe Belichick and McDaniels will allow him to be less limited.

Chicago Bears - QB Mitchell Trubisky

Trubisky’s completion percentage (63.2%) was actually better than Brady’s (60.8%) in 2019, but that’s where the comparisons stop. He threw for only 3,138 yards and the Bears ranked fourth worst in points per game.

Chicago's quarterback situation could reflect what we have in New England this season. Their total plays from scrimmage (1,020) were slightly over a thousand - which is in the same neighborhood as I project for the Patriots - while their quarterback has shown some potential as well as some flaws in his game. We could see in 2020 what we have seen from Trubisky over his three-year career in Chicago. The results were bad (17.5 points per game), but we could see this kind of up-and-down play from Stidham and we could even hear rumors of a potential benching, something we heard frequently out of Chicago in 2019.

New York Giants - QB Daniel Jones

I threw the Giants in here for comparison because Jones is young and inexperienced, but has shown the potential to be a legitimate starting quarterback in the NFL and that’s what Patriots fans are hoping to see from Stidham in 2020. I expect significantly fewer pass attempts from Stidham, but if Pats fans see flashes of potential like the Giants saw with Jones, it will be a positive season.

Jacksonville Jaguars - QB Gardner Minshew

I don’t think many knew who the heck Gardner Minshew was when 2019 started, but they know now. His completion percentage (60.6%) was .2% lower than Tom Brady’s and he threw 21 touchdowns to only six interceptions. I am not suggesting Minshew is the next Tom Brady, but that TD/INT ratio is impressive, significantly so in comparison to Tom Brady early in his career.

3,271 passing yards - which is how many yards Minshew threw for last season - is a reachable number for Stidham, while a better completion percentage is very much possible in a safe, managed offensive game plan designed by an offensive mind like McDaniels.

The Jags passing and rushing attempts as well as total passing yards are right in line with what we could see from Belichick/McDaniels in 2020. Jacksonville thinks they may have found a QB of their future, and if Stidham can show some of the things the Jags saw from Minshew, the Patriots could have something. It’s an extremely interesting comparison when projecting what we might see from Stidham in 2020.

2020 Projections

Fantasy sports aren't always reflective of what a player is or what he might be going forward, but it is a good place to look for statistical projections. It's where Fantasy sports are focused and it's what they're good at. According to Fantasydata.com, Stidham projects to be the 34th best quarterback in Fantasy sports in 2020. There are only 32 teams in the NFL. I expect much better, but expectations are low.

Stidham isn’t going to be the next Tom Brady. I guarantee it. I guarantee it because there will never be another Tom Brady. But, he can be better, statistically, as a rookie. Stidham can throw fewer interceptions than 2001's Brady and for a better completion percentage than 2019's Minshew. Brady went 11-3 as a first-year starter and won a Super Bowl. That’s the brilliance of Brady. The stats weren’t always as flashy as some might have demanded, but the number that mattered always shined and it's why he is the greatest of all time: wins. 

Patriots fans should expect to see a better statistical season from Stidham than Brady's 2001 Super Bowl MVP campaign. New England will have reasons to be excited about Stidham when he starts taking meaningful snaps, like the Giants last year with Daniel Jones and the Jags ownership with Minshew.