ESPN Gives Patriots Harsh Projection for Upcoming NFL Season

Things could get bumpy for the New England Patriots in 2024.

May 11, 2024; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) hands the ball to running back Deshaun Fenwick (35) at the New England Patriots rookie camp at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports / Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

Even with a number of improvements throughout this spring for the New England Patriots, fans could be in for yet another turbulent season.

The Patriots look to have several challenges to endure for the coming year. They'll have a top ten toughest schedule in the NFL, land in one of the most talented divisions in football, and will be in the first year of rookie head coach Jerod Mayo and quarterback Drake Maye taking charge.

Of course, the current state and overall direction of the Patriots have seen a vast improvement from how things were viewed six months ago. Nonetheless, it's still far from sunshine and rainbows in Foxboro, and many are beginning to take note when predicting what the landscape of the NFL will look like next season.

When you ask ESPN's Football Power Index, things could get so rough for New England that a number one pick could be on the way for next offseason. The FPI pins the Patriots to not just have a borderline 25% chance to secure the top selection, but hold only a 2% chance to make the postseason.

"The FPI gives New England less than a 1% chance to win the division and only a 2% chance to reach the playoffs. The Patriots have the hardest strength of schedule in the NFL this year, but if you ask me those projections still feel a little overconfident forecasting New England's failure... New England's league-topping strength of schedule combined with the FPI's skepticism regarding its roster has the model believing the Patriots are the most likely team to pick first in the 2025 NFL draft, with a 22% chance."

- Seth Walder, ESPN

New England could very well be in for a year filled with adjustment. The Patriots' young core took notable steps forward this offseason, especially offensively, but it may end up taking a few seasons of reps for development to truly pan out. A long-term draft and develop approach is a strong plan to base this rebuild around, but it won't be without growing pains.

On the bright side, a league-worst finish does inevitably net the Patriots a top selection in the draft for 2025, securing an opportunity for another franchise cornerstone into the fold. It could be a new receiver, an offensive lineman, or even a player on the defensive end. Whatever it is, that caliber of talent is a massive boost for the future of this team.

If the Patriots can continue to do damage defensively, not all hope is lost for this group in 2024. Their defense ranked in the middle of the pack last season, and should remain without much change other than getting healthier. Glaring questions remain for the offense, though, and it may be what ends up making or breaking this next year for New England.

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