Patriots Long-Term Forecast: Mild Success With Scattered Chances of Playoffs?

ESPN's three-year projections has New England in the middle of the NFL pack.

We're fully aware that the New England Patriots are only 17-16 and haven't won a playoff game since Tom Brady left. And some of the NFL's so-called "experts" are predicting a regression for the six-time Super Bowl champs this season.

But what about long term? Will the potential of players such as Mac Jones and Matthew Judon and the guile of Bill Belichick return the Pats to prominence? Or are New Englanders headed for a strange, sustained drought of success?

According to ESPN, somewhere in the middle.

ESPN this week released its projections for the next three seasons, using criteria such as each team's quarterback situation, remaining (non-QB) roster, drafting ability, front office and coaching. Network experts Jeremy Fowler, Louis Riddick and Field Yates chimed in to arrive at a unanimous grade for where teams will be heading into the 2025 season.

The scores broke down thusly:

• 100: A+ (Elite)
• 90: A (Great)
• 80: B (Very good)
• 70: C (Average)
• 60: D (Very bad)
• 50 and below: F (Disastrous)

The Patriots landed 13th, with a "very good" score of 81.3. But No. 1 on the list? The AFC East-rival Buffalo Bills at a "great" 90.4.

ESPN's synopsis of 2022-24:

Yates:

While the Patriots are lower than we are accustomed to seeing them, this team has a chance to trend back up in the near future. Coach Bill Belichick gives them an inherent edge, and second-year quarterback Mac Jones is one of my picks for the NFL's breakout player in 2022. I'm bullish on Jones not just because of what he does well on the field but also because of the leadership he shows that can set the tempo for a franchise. One of the team's top questions going into this season is who will be working closest with Jones as the offensive play-caller, as no plan to replace Josh McDaniels in that capacity has been publicly revealed.

Riddick:

The Patriots' lack of explosiveness on the outside was concerning going into last season, but I'm more concerned this year about who will be in the ear of Jones when it comes to his development and the play-calling. That continuity, relationship and chemistry is not easy to duplicate, and given the coaches Belichick is seemingly choosing from to take McDaniels' place -- including offensive assistants Joe Judge and Matt Patricia I have significant concerns.

Fowler:

New England could use an infusion of speed on defense. I talked to a few teams this offseason that thought the Patriots, though stout on defense, looked a step slow to the ball late in the year last season. Young players linebacker Josh Uche and safety Kyle Dugger must continue to develop. And Jones could use one more threat on offense, preferably at the outside receiver spot.