Plunging Patriots: Odds of New England 'Winning' No. 1 Pick in 2024 NFL Draft?

The New England Patriots seem locked into the No. 2 overall pick in next year's NFL Draft, but could vault to No. 1 with a little "help" from the Carolina Panthers.

A far cry from December pushes to be the best and secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC Playoffs on their way to a record six Super Bowls, the only valuable goal still within reach for this year's New England Patriots is to be the worst.

Sure, winning their final three games could save legendary coach Bill Belichick's job. But - perhaps more pressing - three losses could sink the Pats to the rock bottom of the NFL and, in doing so, jump-start their arduous rebuilding project.

Heading into Week 16, the 3-11 Patriots have a 10-percent chance to land the No. 1 overall pick in next April's NFL Draft. They have a 58-percent chance of picking in the top two and are almost assured (82 percent) of owning choice No. 1, 2 or 3.

New England is by far the worst team in the AFC, but what will it take for the Pats to slide into the No. 1 overall pick?

Despite their upset win last week, the 2-10 Carolina Panthers (whose pick belongs to the Chicago Bears because of last year's trade up for quarterback Bryce Young) have the inside track. The Patriots are one game ahead - er, behind - in this "race." New England has the same record as the Arizona Cardinals, but is slotted No. 2 because of a slightly weaker strength of schedule.

If they finish 3-14, it would be their worst since 1992. That year the Pats went 2-14, earned the No. 1 overall pick and selected quarterback Drew Bledsoe.

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A look at the remaining schedules for the "contenders" for the No. 1 overall pick:

1. Panthers (2-12): vs. Packers (6-8), at Jaguars (8-6), vs. Buccaneers (7-7)

2. Patriots (3-11): at Broncos (7-7), at Bills (8-6), vs. Jets (5-9)

3. Cardinals (3-11): at Bears (5-9), at Eagles (10-4), vs. Seahawks (7-7)

4. Commanders (4-10): at Jets (5-9), vs. 49ers (11-3), vs. Cowboys (10-4)

The season finale Jan. 7 at Gillette Stadium could be fascinating, and important. It might be Belichick's Foxboro farewell. Perhaps he'll give his franchise the No. 1 draft pick as a parting gift?

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