Cautionary Tale: Lessons For Patriots After Dolphins' Playoff Loss
There are plenty of lessons for the New England Patriots to learn from their disastrous 4-13 campaign that spelled the end of the Bill Belichick era and solidified a Top 3 draft pick for the first time 30 years.
However, some of the biggest lessons can come from the games you don't even play.
Take the Miami Dolphins for example. New England's rival in the AFC East reached the postseason for the second straight year, and for the second straight year, they did not get past the Wild Card round.
Miami's high-powered offense which put up 70 points in one game this season was left lifeless in the frozen field at Arrowhead against the Kansas City Chiefs. Not only was the 26-7 loss alarming, but it certainly didn't help that the quarterback they spent a top overall pick on played poorly.
Tua Tagovailoa was selected with the fifth-overall pick in 2020 - ahead of other quarterbacks like Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, and Jordan Love. While his 67 percent completion percentage and 81 touchdown throws over his four-year NFL career have left many fans of the Fish pleased, it's what he hasn't been able to do that worries so many - and gives a cautionary lesson for teams like the Patriots.
Before his hip injury in college at Alabama, Tua was seen as a sure-fire pick to be taken first overall. Instead, Joe Burrow got the top spot as teams were concerned about the Dolphin quarterback's frame to deliver throws in tight pockets.
Now, following another playoff loss, and another loss against a team over .500, there is legitimate concern that the Dolphins hitched their wagon to a quarterback with a very limited ceiling.
Other quarterbacks from his draft class (Hurts and Burrow) have been to the Super Bowl. Herbert has put up even better numbers despite lesser talent and coaching around him than Tua. Even Love has taken the reigns of the Packers and led them to the playoffs in his first year.
Developing and projecting a quarterback's success in the modern NFL is extremely difficult to do. Teams need to make sure they have a strong blend of talent around signal-callers so they can develop a coaching plan in place to get the most out of them.
The Patriots are in a spot where they don't have any of the three.
They don't have a young quarterback to develop, they don't have the talent around any quarterback, and there are concerns about the Jerod Mayo-era to develop a strong offensive system needed.
That doesn't mean they won't be able to fix that.
With the third overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, New England should be able to be aggressive in how they want to judge the current quarterback class. But the other important lesson to learn from the Dolphins is that, sometimes, the top quarterback doesn't work.
Consider this, in the AFC playoff race currently, only CJ Stroud is a top-five pick moving on to the divisional round of the playoffs. Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson all fell outside the top five of their respective draft classes.
In short, New England should not simply take a quarterback this year for the sake of taking one. Developing a proper system and loaded offense should be the first thing that the Patriots should be focusing on.
It's what the Dolphins didn't do with Tua, and it's why they are stuck with another first-round playoff exit.
