NFL Power Rankings: Has ‘Magic Worn Off’ for Patriots?

Can Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots win a playoff game for the first time post-Tom Brady?

Bill Belichick may not be on the hot seat in 2023, but the New England Patriots have zero playoff wins to show for the first three seasons post-Tom Brady. And if our latest NFL Power Rankings are any indication, they'll have a difficult time changing that trend this season.

Our rankings for May 2023: 

1. Kansas City Chiefs

As long as the trio of Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Andy Reid are together, the Chiefs will find themselves among the league’s elite teams. Second-year running back Isiah Pacheco could took a major step forward for the defending Super Bowl Champions.

2. Philadelphia Eagles

There’s a case to be made that even though they came up short of winning a Super Bowl, the 2022 Eagles were the most talented team in free agency. They lost quite a few pieces in free agency, but then general manager Howie Roseman added Jordan Davis, Nolan Smith, D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny. This is arguably the best roster in the NFL still.

3. Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati signed four-time Pro Bowler Orlando Brown to a lucrative four-year deal this offseason, as they continue to rebuild the offensive line in front of Joe Burrow. As is, Cincinnati has done an incredible job surrounding Burrow with skill-position talent, and we expect Ja’Marr Chase to re-enter the conversation for the best wide receiver in football after he was limited to 12 games a season ago.

4. San Francisco 49ers

Kyle Shanahan is perhaps the best head coach in the sport, and the 49ers are a team littered with stars. The problem is that many of those stars – Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey – have injury histories. And unlike a majority of the teams they are wedged in between, they haven’t figured out who is their franchise quarterback. This is a Super Bowl contender, but one too many things seems to go wrong for them every year.

5. Buffalo Bills

On one hand, the addition of tight end Dalton Kincaid in the first round could take an already scary passing attack to another level. On the other hand, this is Josh Allen’s sixth season and for all Brandon Beane has done well, Buffalo still hasn’t given their do-it-all quarterback a consistent running game. Now 27, Allen acknowledged this offseason that he can’t continue to take as many hits, but when it comes time to play in the postseason, he still may be their best rushing option.

6. Baltimore Ravens

We can’t guarantee Lamar Jackson, Odell Beckham Jr. or J.K. Dobbins will stay healthy, but if they do, Baltimore has a chance to be a Super Bowl contender. Jackson’s contract status is no longer hanging over the team, and if new offensive coordinator Todd Monken opens up the passing game while still utilizing his quarterback’s rushing ability, Baltimore could play with anyone.

7. Miami Dolphins

There are still some valid criticisms to make of Tua Tagovailoa the player, but even despite that, he and the Dolphins looked like an elite team when their quarterback was healthy. The problem is that whether it’s a concussion or something else, history tells us that Tagovailoa won’t stay healthy. And that could very well doom the Dolphins in a loaded AFC.

8. Dallas Cowboys

A few of the teams below the Cowboys might be more talented, but it’s impossible to ignore how wide open the NFC is compared to the AFC. Unless Ezekiel Elliott comes back, the Cowboys don’t have a ton in the way of proven options at running back behind Tony Pollard. But Dallas added a Brandin Cooks in a trade and should get a better version of Michael Gallup as he moves further away from tearing his left ACL late in the 2021 season. Can they avoid being eliminated by the 49ers in the postseason for the third consecutive year?

9. Los Angeles Chargers

We tend to value advanced information and always having concrete evidence to back up an opinion. But if you’re hesitant to bet on the Chargers because they are the Chargers, it’s hard to argue with you. Justin Herbert is like the next evolution of Matthew Stafford, but until the Chargers shake a stigma that he inherited, there will be quite a few skeptics.

10. New York Jets

It’s hard to bet against Aaron Rodgers when he’s operating out of spite. And while it’s not hard to imagine things going south with Rodgers in the New York media market, the 2023 Jets figure to be as interesting as any team the franchise has produced since their quarterback was … Brett Favre.

11. Jacksonville Jaguars

We’re not quite ready to to anoint Trevor Lawrence a top-five quarterback, but if he can continue to cut down on his turnovers – he had eight interceptions and 12 fumbles in his second season – he unquestionably has that type of talent. The addition of wide receiver Calvin Ridley might be just what the doctor ordered.

12. Detroit Lions

It’s fair to have some caution with the hype that the Lions are receiving given that they were a 9-8 team that missed the playoffs a year ago. But it’s impossible not to be impressed by the culture that the Lions have built under Dan Campbell, and even if they overdrafted Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit added one of the most talented skill-position players in the draft.

13. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks snuck into the playoffs last year at 9-8, and will get a full season of running back Kenneth Walker in 2023, who flashed star potential in his rookie season. Seattle added Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round, and he’ll join a wide receiving corps that includes Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. It will be interesting to see if Geno Smith can build on his 2022 season, and convince Seattle he could quarterback a Super Bowl team.

14. Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota went 13-4 in Kevin O’Connell’s first season, despite posting a -3 point differential. On one hand, that suggests O’Connell is good at managing the game. On the other hand, the Vikings were upset by the Giants – more on them in a minute – in the NFC Wild Card Round and feel like a team more likely to win nine games in 2023 than repeat their regular season success from 2022.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers

2023 feels like it’s going to turn into a referendum on third-year offensive coordinator Matt Canada. Can Kenny Pickett take a major step forward in his second season, while learning to protect himself from head injuries? Will Najee Harris bounce back after a disappointing 2022 campaign? If both of those answers aren’t yes, Mike Tomlin isn’t going to be the one to take the fall.

16. New York Giants

Even with a -6 point differential, the Giants went 9-7-1 in 2022, sneaking into the postseason and ultimately upsetting the Vikings. Brian Daboll is an excellent coach, but it feels like the Giants overachieved a year ago. Even if a massive regression isn’t in store, do the Giants have enough talent to go any further than they did in 2022?

17. Cleveland Browns

It’s almost impossible to evaluate Deshaun Watson right now. He sat out the entire 2021 season, and was suspended for the first 11 games of 2022. He then returned to the Browns and was underwhelming, throwing seven touchdowns to five interceptions across six games. He’s still only 27, so in theory, he should still be in his prime. But he has to show that in his first full season in Cleveland.

18. Atlanta Falcons

Whether using a top-10 pick of a running back is smart long-term team-building or not, the addition of Bijan Robinson to a young offensive core that already included Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Tyler Allgeier will make the Falcons frisky in 2023, if nothing else. They risk ending up in quarterback purgatory if the team improves but Desmond Ridder doesn’t end up being a franchise quarterback, though it wouldn’t be surprising if they wind up in the NFC South race.

19. Green Bay Packers

Out is Rodgers, but running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon remain, as do talented second-year wide receivers Christian Watson and Romeo Dobbs. If Jordan Love can play, don’t be so sure the Packers won’t beat the 8-9 record they posted in Rodgers’ final season with the team.

20. New Orleans Saints

New Orleans feels like a team that should maybe take their medicine for a year, stabilize their long-term salary cap situation and then move forward. But that doesn’t appear to be in the DNA of general manager Mickey Loomis, who did upgrade at quarterback this offseason by signing Derek Carr. But while the Saints could sneak into the playoffs via a brutal division, they don’t seem to have a path towards being a Super Bowl contender soon, even in the NFC.

21. Chicago Bears

Chicago went an NFL-worst 3-14 in 2022, but lost six games by five or less points. This offseason, general manager Ryan Poles added wide receiver D.J. Moore, right guard Nate Davis and linebackers Tremaine Edwards and T.J. Edwards. If Justin Fields takes a major step forward in his third season, there’s no reason why the Bears couldn’t compete for a division title.

22. Las Vegas Raiders

Carr struggled in his lone season under Josh McDaniels, but in pivoting to Jimmy Garoppolo, the Raiders seemingly got a worse quarterback that’s more likely to get injured. Davante Adams may cement himself as a Hall of Famer while with the Raiders, but it’s a bit peculiar that McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler gave up a first-round pick for a wide receiver entering his age-30 season if they felt that the team wasn’t close to being able to make a Super Bowl run.

23. New England Patriots

The magic has worn off in New England. Sure, Bill O’Brien will be a better offensive coordinator than the tandem of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge a year ago. But even in a strong rookie season, there were questions about how high Mac Jones’ ceiling was. And outside of running back Rhamondre Stevenson, there just isn’t much to get excited about in terms of skill-position players. You do wonder how many more years Bill Belichick will be in New England for if the Patriots put together another .500-ish season.

24. Denver Broncos

Everything we saw in 2022 suggests that Russell Wilson is no longer the Hall of Fame-caliber quarterback he was for much of his time in Seattle. But Sean Payton is one of the best offensive minds in NFL history, and with both running back Javonte Williams and wide receiver Tim Patrick slated to return from torn ACLs, Denver should improve in 2023.

25. Los Angeles Rams

They got a Super Bowl out of it, but the “F-them-picks” mindset caught up to the Rams quicker than anyone expected. If Matthew Stafford is healthy for the full season, this ranking will likely prove to be too low. But he was limited to nine games in 2022, and you wonder whether he’s just hit a wall physically.

26. Tennessee Titans

Mike Vrabel might be like Tomlin in the sense that he’ll usually find a way to get his team to at least .500. But he’s got his work cut out. The group of pass catchers post-A.J. Brown was disastrous. Ryan Tannehill is likely in his last season with the Titans as the team grooms Will Levis to take over, probably in 2024. And as Derrick Henry enters his ninth NFL season, you just fear that his gigantic workload will eventually catch up to him.

27. Washington Commanders

By the time Week 1 rolls around, Joshua Harris will likely have officially taken over ownership of the team from Daniel Snyder. While that is a welcome development for Commanders fans, it starts the clock for the current D.C. regime. If Sam Howell doesn’t pan out, will general manager Martin Mayhew, head coach Ron Rivera and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy still be employed by the team a year from now?

28. Indianapolis Colts

If Anthony Richardson starts out of the gate for the Colts, he’ll likely flash his superstar potential. But even in the best-case-scenario, there also figure to be quite a few growing pains, as there were during Josh Allen’s first season in Buffalo. Shane Steichen’s work with Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts suggests he’ll get the best out of Richarson. But that’s not going to be an overnight process.

29. Carolina Panthers

If Bryce Young hits the ground running, who's to say the Panthers couldn’t compete for the NFC South title? They went 7-10 a year ago, before adding Miles Sandes, Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark in the offseason. Their defense Ejiro Evero will lead a talented defense, as new head coach Frank Reich assembled one of the deepest coaching staffs in the sport. At the very least, the Panthers are worth monitoring in 2023.

30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Part of you thinks that Chris Godwin will be healthier this year, Rachaad White will take a step forward and Baker Mayfield will revive his career in 2023. But Tampa Bay got old in a hurry in 2022, and it doesn’t seem logical that they would be better the year after Tom Brady retires.

31. Houston Texans

With DeMeco Ryans in at head coach and C.J. Stroud at quarterback, 2023 could be the year the culture changes in Houston. Still this is a roster that’s likely a year away from being a year away. And Will Anderson Jr. will have to win Defensive Rookie of the Year for their not to be questions about whether being able to draft him was worth giving up a top-five pick in 2024.

32. Arizona Cardinals

Kyler Murray tore his right ACL in December, so he almost certainly won’t be ready for Week 1. Three-time All-Pro DeAndre Hopkins’ future with the team remains unclear. Jonathan Gannon’s first season as head coach will likely be a struggle, but given that they own Houston’s first-round pick, such a campaign could net them two top-five picks in the 2024 NFL Draft.

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