Patriots Path To Playoffs: Masters Of Their Domain?

The Patriots will face the Buffalo Bills in Week 18 in control of their playoff fate.

FOXBORO — The New England Patriots are entering the final week of the regular season in control of their own postseason fate, thanks to their 23-21 Week 17 victory over the Miami Dolphins on Sunday at Gillette Stadium.

With the win, the Pats snapped a four-game losing streak to their AFC East rivals, and kept their playoff hopes alive.

The Patriots hold the seventh and final seed in the AFC. Both the New York Jets and Las Vegas Raiders were officially eliminated with their respective losses. The analytics of FiveThirtyEight are giving New England a 29 percent chance of making the playoffs.

As their Week 18 showdown with the Buffalo Bills approaches, New England’s playoff-clinching scenarios have begun to take shape. 

Simply put, win and they’re in. 

Their most straightforward route to the postseason is to defeat the the Bills on Sunday, Jan. 8 at Highmark Stadium. In doing so, the Patriots would capture the AFC’s third wild card and No. 7 seed. As such, they would travel to the home field of the No. 2 seed (either Buffalo, the Kansas City Chiefs  or the Cincinnati Bengals) on wild-card weekend.

However, if the Patriots lose to Buffalo, the proverbial plot will begin to thicken. 

A loss to the Bills would severely weaken the Pats chances of qualifying for the postseason, but not eliminate them. New England would still clinch a playoff spot if ALL of the following should occur:  

• The New York Jets beat the Dolphins

• The Cleveland Browns beat the Pittsburgh Steelers

• The Jacksonville Jaguars beat or tie the Tennessee Titans 

Defeating the Bills will not be an easy task. The Patriots opened as 7.5-point road underdogs for Week 18, having lost five of their last six and three straight against the Bills.  The two division rivals last met in Week 13 at Gillette Stadium, which resulted in a 24-10 Buffalo victory. 

Still, Buffalo also has some business to which it must attend. 

The NFL announced their decision on Sunday night to flex next weekend’s Kansas City Chiefs-Las Vegas Raiders game to Saturday afternoon.

If the Bills defeat the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday night, and the Chiefs lose to the Raiders on Saturday, Buffalo would clinch a first-round playoff bye and home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. In that case, the Bills may enter Week 18 already having secured the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Therefore, they may be content to rest some of their starters, making the Pats path to victory a bit smoother. 

While the numerous roads to the postseason are fun to discuss, the Patriots veterans know that taking care of their own business is their best path to the playoffs. Following Sunday’s win over the Dolphins, team captain Matthew Slater addressed the manner in which New England must approach the week ahead. 

“I think the message has to be just leave it all out there,” Slater said. “This is a playoff game for us, we have to treat it as such. The urgency, the preparation, the focus, the attention to detail, it all needs to be there. So I am certainly going to be pushing hard. I do not know what my future holds so I want to make this count on a personal level and I know a lot of guys feel that same way so we will see how it goes.”

The Patriots will travel to Western New York to take on the AFC East Champions on Sunday, Jan 8 at Highmark Stadium. Kickoff is currently set at 1 p.m. ET, yet may be subject to change. 

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Follow Mike D’Abate on Twitter @mdabateNFL and Listen/Subscribe to his daily podcast: Locked On Patriots

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