Patriots Playoff Chances Slim, But Still Alive After Week 13

Despite their Week 13 loss to the Buffalo Bills, the New England Patriots are still in the postseason hunt.

FOXBORO — In the immortal words of Happy Gilmore, “It ain’t over yet McGavin … The way I see it, we’ve only just begun.”

Admittedly, Happy’s chances of defeating Shooter McGavin in the climactic matchup in Adam Sandler’s 1996 comedic classic were much better than that of the New England Patriots making the playoffs at the conclusion of the 2022 NFL season.

Yet, they are still in the hunt.

Despite a lackluster performance in their 24-10 loss to the Buffalo Bills on Thursday night at Gillette Stadium, the Pats continue to have a path to the postseason, thanks to some help from a few teams on Sunday.

The Good

The Minnesota Vikings may have handed the Pats a bitter Thanksgiving night loss. However, they delivered the most significant helping hand to New England’s playoff hopes by defeating the New York Jets 27-22 at U.S. Bank Stadium. They are presently one game behind the Jets in the Wild Card hunt.

With the Patriots having swept them in the two-game regular-season series, the Pats hold the tiebreaker against New York.

Old friend Josh McDaniels and his Las Vegas Raiders (who coincidentally will host the Patriots in Week 15 at Allegiant Stadium) beat the Los Angeles Chargers 27-20 on Sunday. The loss dropped the Bolts to 6-6, and one notch below the Patriots in the playoff race, based on strength of schedule.

While the Patriots chances of catching the Miami Dolphins are slim, they were slightly enhanced by the San Francisco 49ers, who pulled off the 33-17 win in Week 13. With the loss, Miami fell to the sixth seed in the AFC with an 8-4 record. Though the Pats would need the pendulum to swing a bit more in their favor, Miami remains in their line of sight for the time being.

The Bad

While the Cincinnati Bengals 27-24 defeat of the Kansas City Chiefs kept them above the Dolphins for the AFC’s fifth slot, it did put additional pressure on New England by moving two games above them in the chase for the Wild Card. The Pats and Bengals are set for a Christmas Eve contest at Gillette Stadium, which is likely to have substantial postseason implications.

The Patriots also fell further behind the Baltimore Ravens, who held off the Denver Broncos by a final score of 10-9. The Ravens moved to 8-4, while maintaining the upper hand on New England after defeating them 37-26 in Week 3 at Gillette Stadium.

The Outlook

Here’s a look at the AFC standings heading into “Sunday Night Football” between the 4-7-1 Indianapolis Colts and NFC East’s Dallas Cowboys, both of whom have little impact on the current standings:

1. Buffalo Bills (9-3, AFC East leader)

2. Kansas City Chiefs (9-3, AFC West leader)

3. Baltimore Ravens (8-4, AFC North leader

4. Tennessee Titans (7-5, AFC West leader)

5. Cincinnati Bengals (8-4, first wild card)

6. Miami Dolphins (8-4, second wild card)

7. New York Jets (7-5, third wild card)

In The Hunt: 

8. New England Patriots (6-6)

9. Los Angeles Chargers (6-6)

According to the analytics of FiveThirtyEight, the Pats currently have a 25 percent chance of making the playoffs at the conclusion of Week 13.

FiveThirtyEight uses the Elo Rating system, which is a measure of strength based on head-to-head results and quality of opponent in determining playoff probability. In short, Elo assigns each team a power rating (the NFL average is around 1500). In both their traditional Elo rating, as well as a quarterback-adjusted rating (based on the team’s likely starter in its next game and how much better or worse that QB is than the opponent’s top starter) the Patriots are a middle-of-the-pack team with a 1507 power rating.

The Patriots don’t have much room for error in their final five games, three of which are against AFC teams currently in the playoff picture, but there remains a realistic chance the Patriots can grab the final wild-card spot.

Up Next:

The team will travel to Glendale, AZ for a Monday Night Football matchup with the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium on Dec. 12.

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Follow Mike D’Abate on Twitter @mdabateNFL and Listen/Subscribe to his daily podcast: Locked On Patriots

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