Why They Win: How New England Patriots Upset Miami Dolphins

The New England Patriots already threw a wrench into one divisional opponent's season. Here's how they do it again.

The New England Patriots had tricks for one divisional rival. Now, another is looking for treats.

Fresh off an unexpected victory over the Buffalo Bills last weekend, the road back to respectability gets no easier this time around. Such a painful path ironically works its way to South Beach on Sunday, as the Patriots take on the AFC East-leading Miami Dolphins.

New England will look to carry on its seasonally appropriate hexing ways against a Miami group humbled back to Earth by a 31-17 prime-time loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in the Week 7 Sunday closer. Things are also personal for the Patriots, who are looking to avoid a sweep at the hands of Miami for the second time in three seasons after dropping the Foxborough portion back in Week 2. New England also hasn't dropped four straight in Miami since the turn of the century (1999-2002).

What: New England Patriots (2-5) @ Miami Dolphins (5-2)
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Who's Won: Miami leads series 61-55 (Last: 24-17 MIA, 9/2023)
Who's Favored: MIA 9.5

If Mac Jones (10) is able to build upon the momentum established last week un Buffalo, the Patriots could be on their way to another upset win / David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

One Last Passing Opportunity

There's one certainty when it comes to Dolphins games this season: bet the over. Points, yardage of the individual/team variety, you name it, Miami and their companions are poised to put on a Sunday show. New England's offense is coming off its most consistent effort of the season, a game where Mac Jones actually looked like an assured part of the team's future and was able to get the budding weapons involved in a diverse offensive showcase. 

As it stands, Miami should remain a tough challenge thanks to a league-best passing game but they're 20th on defending the air. A rusty Jalen Ramsey is expected to make his aqua debut on Sunday so the Patriots will be among the last to face the Dolphins before they reach full strength. The second half of last week's game implied that the Patriots are capable of at least hanging in an offensive shootout. They'll have to be ready for a 60-minute shootout, but if Jones can get Demario Douglas and Kendrick Bourne involved again, New England a least has a passing (pun intended) chance.

A 60-Minute Job Interview

New Patriots fans who dare tune into Sunday's game best not get attached to its combatants: the visit to Miami is the final game before Halloween's NFL trade deadline and some familiar faces in Foxborough could be on the move. Prime candidate Josh Uche isn't slated to play but Bourne and a young veteran like Kyle Dugger have opportunities to impress in the box score while Trent Brown can impress suitors by keeping the pocket clean. Sunday against the mighty Dolphins is a big opportunity for the Patriots' moveable talents to stand out in front of observant front offices and perhaps give Foxborough a decent parting gift on their way out.

Cold Run

Even with several would-be contributors forced to watch this season from the sidelines, the Patriots have at least kept opposing ground games ... well, grounded. New England has let up a mere 3.4 rushing yards per carry this season and allowed the Bills to pick up only 81 in last week's win. The Dolphins are in an uncomfortable situation where 2023 breakout De'Veon Achane is out and he was granted an unintentional MVP case when South Beach's offense sputtered when they posted a season-low 45 in the loss to Philadelphia. If the Patriots can bottle up Raheem Mostert (scorer of nine touchdowns this season), it could grant them an opportunity to control the pace when they have the ball.