Why They Win: How Do Patriots Corral Colts?

In a matchup that has gone from deciding the AFC's Super Bowl rep to a battle between opponents clinging to their playoff lives, where the New England Patriots hold the advantage?

A matchup between the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts could once again play a role in forming the AFC playoff picture. 

This time the cleared areas appear to be the Wild Card round rather than the conference title game, but playoff positioning could nonetheless be on the line when the teams renew their rivalry on Sunday afternoon. 

Fresh off a big divisional victory over the New York Jets, the Patriots seek to create another winning streak with a familiar foe standing in their way. The Colts are likewise gripping onto fleeting playoff dreams moving into a new era with Sam Ehlinger under center. His first excursion was a 17-16 home loss at the hands of the Washington Commanders last weekend, charging the Colts with consecutive losses after two prior wins. 

What: Indianapolis Colts (3-4-1) at New England Patriots (4-4)
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
When: 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Who's Won: New England leads series 52-30 (last: 27-17 IND, 12/2021) 

How do the Patriots prevail and say nay to the neigh-sayers? 

Attack, Mac!

New England may be tempted to continue showcasing its newest prospective offensive star in Rhamondre Stevenson, but the Colts have curbed rushers' enthusiasm to the tune of allowing only four yards a carry (only San Francisco and the aforementioned Jets have done better in that category). 

That leaves a solid opportunity in Mac Jones' corner, one that comes against a former Patriot buddy in Stephon Gilmore. The Colts' pass rush, despite the prescience of former Rhode Island football star Kwity Paye, has struggled to gain true traction. Their sack total (19) and pressure per dropback (23.7 percent) are each fairly respectable, but only Buffalo and Chicago have blitzed fewer times over the first half of the season. Opposing quarterbacks are also completing 68.6 of their passes against the Colts' aerial defense, averaging 6.8 yards per attempt.  

Jones needs to do his part to avoid the Patriots' quarterback situation from mirroring the Colts' ineffective, if not intriguing, long-term strategy under center. Indianapolis' overly sporadic blitzing tendencies at least hint he'll have time to make decisions on Sunda, even with three offensive contributors (David Andrews, Marcus Cannon, DeVante Parker) set to sit out. 

No Offense

New England is a favorite on Sunday for an obvious reason ... Sam Ehlinger, chosen five rounds after Jones, will be starting on Sunday in his second NFL start. But one look at the Colts' depth chart shows that quarterback is far from their only area of need moving forward. To put this in terms that a Patriot or Colt fan would understand, Indianapolis isn't exactly field Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James, Marvin Harrison, and Jeff Saturday out there.

With New England nightmare-haunter Jonathan Taylor out (after putting up 170 on them last holiday season) and Nyheim Hines dealt to Buffalo, the Colts will be hard-pressed to find rushing solutions against a New England defense ripe for a rushing attack. Rusher Phillip Lindsay appears to be the top name capable of taking pressure off of Ehlinger with New England's strong pass defense facing Parris Campbell and Alec Pierce. The Patriots already took advantage of one beleaguered rushing attack last week against the Jets (holding them to 51 rushing yards on 15 attempts in the post-Breece Hall era) and their pass rush could enjoy a big day with Dennis Kelly currently listed as a game-time decision. 

There's no use avoiding the Longhorn in the room, though ... 

Sam-I-Am ... Not?

The Colts decided to cancel the "throwback" theme seen in their recent starting quarterback theme (i.e. Phillip Rivers, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, all of whom will be remembered as Colts the way Cam Newton will be remembered as a Patriot) by handing the reigns over to the second-year man Ehlinger. 

The Texas alum composed himself well against a mediocre Washington group last week but now he has to face a pass rush that includes Matthew Judon and Deatrich Wise, each in the midst of backfield-invading breakouts. If Kelly is injured, things could truly become dangerous. 

As the world discovered last week, the psychological hold the Patriots seem to hold on certain NFL individuals shouldn't be discounted. The two Foxboro holdovers from the Tom Brady-era dominance appear to be their mastery of the Jets and head coach Bill Belichick rattling young quarterbacks. Since 2020, first and second-year quarterbacks are 5-8 against Belichick's group, a number that drops to 1-5 when only freshmen are considered. Only one (Davis Mills in 2021) has posted a triple-digit passer rating and that came in a loss. 

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Geoff Magliocchetti is on Twitter @GeoffJMags

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