Why They Win: How Patriots Down Dolphins, Raise Playoff Hopes

The New England Patriots end their regular season against familiar opponents. They'll need a big win to end it in the familiar territory of the postseason.

The New England Patriots literally couldn't have asked for a better opponent if they're looking to return to the AFC playoff for a second consecutive season. Will it be everything they imagined or will they be careful what they wished for?

That question lingers on Sunday afternoon, as one of the most impactful early games is situated in Foxboro. In what will likely be the Patriots' final home game of the 2022-23 season, they'll welcome in the Miami Dolphins, the current holders of the AFC's seventh and final playoff seed. New England will move into that spot with a win but will see their playoff hopes end with a loss.

Entry upon the bracket will rely on revenge: the Patriots' season began with a 20-7 loss in Miami, a game that saw them muster only 271 yards and a single touchdown in defeat. The Dolphins are facing their own brand of adversity, having lost franchise quarterback Tua Tagovailoa indefinitely due to a concussion sustained in last week's Christmas Day loss to the Green Bay Packers. 

Miami has won four consecutive meetings with the Patriots, but has not swept the annual pair in consecutive years since 1999-2000.

What: Miami Dolphins (8-7) @ New England Patriots (7-8)
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
When: 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Who's Won: Miami leads series 60-54 (Last: 20-7 MIA, 9/11/22) 

How do the Patriots keep their postseason hopes alive?

Burn the Bridge(water)

The Patriots' primary success has come through relentless pass rushing endeavors and they'll have to up the ante to keep the dream alive. Miami has been forced to turn to a backup quarterback, one whose efforts at establishing momentum have been stifled by injury and pressure (taken down six times on 66 dropbacks) and New England can't take it easy as the Dolphins get desperate. 

Sunday's showing, which could use another burst of Josh Uche magic, could prove historic in more ways than one: not only are the Patriots looking to establish a new postseason streak but Matthew Judon is a mere three sacks away from matching Andre Tippett's New England single-season sack record. The veteran sack master, however, promised not to abandon New England's defensive scheme or strategy in mere pursuit of the record.

"It comes within a scheme and a defensive game plan," Judon said in the lead-up to Sunday's contest. "I can’t really just go out there wilding and chasing records and chasing goals and abandoning my duties and my discipline to the team.”

“It’s been a crazy year and we're still in it. We still have something to fight for. That’s what we’re going to hang our hat on. We are not out of the race.”

Turnover More Than the Calendar

New Year's Eve/Day, especially in this day and age of the information surplus, always causes us to look back and go "wait, that happen this year???" So much has transpired over the NFL season alone that the Patriots' opening weekend matchup with the Dolphins feels like an eternity ago. That game saw the Patriots' defense mostly beautify a two-touchdown loss and that unit has only gotten better. 

The Patriots forced no turnovers on kickoff Sunday but have gone only one game since then with a zero in that column. They've came up especially big in last week's inspiring effort against the defending AFC champions, one that fell just short but was only close thanks to three takeaways from the hands of Joe Burrow. Fortunately for both sides of New England's Sunday prospects, Miami is tied for the third-worst turnover differential at -5, ahead of only New Orleans and Indianapolis. A good number of that comes from Tagovailoa interceptions, 

Such defensive evolution has likely afforded the Patriots an opportunity to stage a playoff push few outside of New England saw coming. Stealing will become a virtue once again if the Patriots want to include themselves among the AFC's contending seven. 

Mike Belichick 

For all the turmoil New England has faced, and continues to face, this season, one could still probably count on one hand ... perhaps one finger or less ... the number of coaches they'd want in a situation like Sunday's more than Bill Belichick. 

While Mike McDaniel has gotten Miami into the fateful seven, there's a lingering sense of underachievement in South Beach: should a team armed with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, a pair of rushers each putting up over 4.9 yards a carry (Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert), and a potential packed defense headlined by a former New Englander (Elandon Roberts) shouldn't be fighting for its playoff life at this point of year, especially with the expanded playoff picture?

A lesser team under lesser guidance might've folded under less accomplished coaching, but Belichick's delaying of the inevitable questions the Patriots will face once their season ends shows why he's been doing this with New England's top headset for over two decades. McDaniel, arguably guilty of overthinking over Miami's recent tumble down the standings, no doubt has potential to be a lauded mind in this league. For now, however, he and his brethren still bow to Belichick. 

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Geoff Magliocchetti is on Twitter @GeoffJMags

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