Why They Win: Patriots at Steelers, Week 2

Despite last week's loss in Miami, New England is actually favored at Pittsburgh.

What: New England Patriots (0-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0)
Where: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
When: 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Who's Won: New England leads series 17-16 (Last: 33-3 NE, 9/8/19)

After a business trip to Florida was anything but successful, the New England Patriots will face off against their lone companions in the brotherhood of six Super Bowls in the Pittsburgh Steelers. Like the Patriots, the Steelers are attempting to make it back to the AFC playoffs, a quest that began with a narrow overtime victory over the defending Super Bowl finalists from Cincinnati last Sunday. 

Things look rather dire in Foxboro with the Patriots coming off a listless loss in Miami, but the "Any Given Sunday" mantra has rung especially true in new century New England. How can they possibly pull this one off? We investigate ...

“Guess who? Kyle Dugger.”@KingDugg_3 flying all over the field!

📺: #NEvsMIA on CBS pic.twitter.com/egp0C3GCJM

— Lenoir-Rhyne Football (@LRBearsFootball) September 11, 2022

Give Najee Nothing

Bill Belichick labeled Sunday's visit to South Beach "pretty even." Anyone who saw how New England's once-mighty offense operated ... or didn't, as the case would be ... has led every chorus of "how?", but a linger at the box score partly narrows the 20-7 gap.

One of the rare Patriot victories on Sunday was their successful takedown of the Miami run game, which averaged only three yards on 21 carries (and that doesn't even factor in a pair of Tua Tagovailoa kneel-downs). Kyle Dugger's ability to invade the backfield was particularly inspiring, has two of his five Sunday tackles created a loss. That's certainly an encouraging sign for a run defense unit that ranked 22nd in yards per game last season.  

Pittsburgh's sophomore sensation Najee Harris is expected to play on Sunday despite a foot injury limiting him to 23 yards on 10 carries against the Bengals. With Harris sidelined, carries mostly went to receiver Chase Claypool and undrafted rookie Jaylen Warren. If the Patriots can bottle up Pittsburgh's rushing attack, they could be well on pace to stealing a victory. That goes double if they ...

Make a Pitch for Mitch

The Steelers' quarterback situation is a ticking time bomb in the fledgling stages of the post-Ben Roethlisberger era. To his credit, Mitchell Trubiusky did exactly what was needed of him during the win over the Bengals: he managed the game well, would not have been the primary reason for his team's demise, and even got a clutch throw or two off in the dying moments. 

But as long as Kenny Pickett ... who's not just a first-round pick but well-used to celebratory antics at the former castle of ketchup ... lingers behind him, Trubisky's every throw will be analyzed and discussed ... and God forbid he lose a game, especially over the next three weeks (dates with the Cleveland Browns and New York Jets await before the team goes to Buffalo in Week 5). 

If the Patriots can carry on the run-stop momentum, they'll put Pittsburgh in a position where they have to rely on Trubisky's arm to win a game. As any Chicago fan can tell you, that's not exactly a position of power: Trubisky threw 38 passes in last week's overtime victory, the 11th time in his career he's done so. The Bears were 2-8 on the prior 10 occasions, which includes a 50-throw outing in an October 2018 loss to the Patriots. 

New England fans are used to Pickett's schtick: he was, in fact, winless in a pair of starts against Boston College. If they hear Steeler fans call for him on Sunday, they'll have done their job. 

Leftover pieces from the #Patriots loss. Really liked how Damien Harris ran. Had a lot of juice in those legs. Needs more touches, but when you dig the hole the Pats did, limits those opportunities. pic.twitter.com/xjLA3ilovm

— Mike Giardi (@MikeGiardi) September 13, 2022

No Watt Bulb

The Steelers' momentum-gaining victory over the AFC's Super Bowl rep came with the ultimate price: T.J. Watt was lost in the final stages of the victory due to a torn pectoral muscle. Originally thought to be season-ending, the Steelers opted for the simpler option of short-term injured reserve and further optimism prevailed when it was determined Watt would not need surgery.

All that matters from the Patriots' perspective is that he won't be around for Sunday's get-together.

Enough has been written about the struggles of the offense, be it Mac Jones' composure and/or health or Kendrick Bourne's snaps. There's a prime opportunity for the new rushing attack of Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Ty Montgomery (New England's lone scorer last week) to break out against a run defense ... one with Watt ... that was dead-last in football last season. It'll be a solid test for former Bengal Larry Ogunjobi, who held his own against the Bengals attack last week despite historically struggling against the run. In a battle of potential game-managers (more likely with Jones battling both back issues and a non-COVID illness), the better run game could prove to be the difference. A potential showcase awaits New England's latest ground attack.

Geoff Magliocchetti is on Twitter @GeoffJMags