NFL Draft: Where Do Patriots Rank in Player Value?

The New England Patriots have had their hits and misses over the years, but how do they rank vs. other teams since 2012?

FOXBORO - Contrary to what you may hear during drive-time terrestrial radio in the Boston area, it appears the the New England Patriots CAN draft, after all. 

The NFL Draft is one of the most important elements in determining the success or failure of any NFL team. One single draft pick has the potential to have a ripple effect, which may last for an entire decade one way or the other.

Draft well, and a team can be set for many years.

Draft poorly, and that team might watch a player, on whom they passed, helping his team achieve championship-level success.

Mac Jones

(Photo cred: NBC Sports)

James White

Shaq Mason

There are a ton of "what-if" scenarios when we look back at a team's draft classes, so ESPN decided to look back at all drafts since 2012 - a 10-year window - to see which team got the most value from players relative to where they were picked.

To evaluate players taken over the last 10 years (2012-2021), they used the Approximate Value (AV), Pro Football Reference's method of measuring the performance of every player. Then they took each player's career AV and put it up against a value based on where that player was taken in the draft. They call that the Career Approximate Value Over Expected (CAVOE).

In short, players drafted earlier have a higher baseline for performance. Therefore if they struggle, they will have a lower CAVOE than a later-round pick who performs similarly.

To calculate the rating, ESPN’s think tank added together CAVOE scores for all players drafted since 2012, regardless of how long a player was with the team that drafted them. The idea was to see which teams drafted players who provided the most value over their careers.

Where do the New England Patriots rank against other teams over that time period?

According to ESPN's formula, New England has the seventh-highest CAVOE of draft picks at 72.3.

Having posted a record of 115-46, the best collective record of any NFL team during that period, here is how New England’s players and drafts were ranked: 

 via ESPN.com

Best class from 2012-2021 drafts: 2021. It was a battle of the "bookend" classes between 2021 (QB Mac Jones, DT Christian Barmore, RB Rhamondre Stevenson) and 2012 (LB Chandler Jones, LB Dont'a Hightower, S Nate Ebner). A case could be made for either, but perhaps most telling is that the years in between garnered so little consideration. Maybe 2016 (G Joe Thuney, WR Malcolm Mitchell, LB Elandon Roberts, C Ted Karras) deserves some respect, but in the end, the early returns on last year's class move it to the top of the list ... for now. -- Mike Reiss, ESPN

CAVOE from Day 3 draft picks (Rounds 4-7): 115, second

Best Day 3 steal? G Shaq Mason, fourth round, 2015. Mason has been a staple of the team's offensive front since being drafted. Recently traded to the Buccaneers, he's still considered to be one of the best guards in the league. -- Jordan Reid, ESPN

Where do New England’s AFC East opponents rank?

Unsurprisingly, the Patriots were far and away the most successful team in the AFC in terms of CAVOE, with the Buffalo Bills scoring a 18.7 (ranking 12th), the Miami Dolphins (ranking 13th) with a 10.0, and the New York Jets ranking 32nd with a score of -304.9. 

Bill Belichick and his top NFL Draft strategist

Photo by Steven Senne-Pool/Getty Images

Joejuan Williams

(Creator: Mitchell Leff | Credit: Getty ImagesCopyright: 2021 Mitchell Leff)

Josh Uche

Patriots Country Overview:

While it may be fun to prod the fanbase by pushing the antagonistic “Bill can’t draft” narrative, the record shows that a significant portion of New England’s success over the past decade may be attributed to the NFL Draft. Still, for all the hits (Mac Jones, Chandler Jones, Shaq Mason, etc.), there were misses (Jake Bequette, Dominique Easley, Cyrus Jones, etc.) as well. Ultimately, draft strategy is not an exact science. However, New England’s recent success, as outlined above, should provide optimism for Patriots fans heading into this week’s 2022 NFL Draft.