Patriots Playoff Prospectus is Still Promising Following Week Fifteen Loss to Colts

The Patriots still find themselves in good position to contend for both the division title and a top spot in the conference.

Despite their 27-17 losts to the Indianapolis Colts on Saturday night, the New England Patriots still find themselves in good standing when it comes to their postseason hopes.

At 9-5 through fourteen games in the 2021 NFL season, the Patriots are highly-likely to be bound for the playoffs. They presently hold the second seed in the Conference, and have a one-game lead in the AFC East. However, their reign as odds-on favorites in the AFC may have taken a bit of a hit.

Week Sixteen with the Division on the Line?

The AFC East has become a three team race. In addition to the Patriots’ loss to the Colts, the potential fate of the Division was altered by a pair of key victories by two teams remaining on the Patriots regular-season schedule. The Buffalo Bills defeated Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers 31-14 on Sunday, while the Miami Dolphins pulled out a victory over the New York Jets 31-24. As a result, the teams are now are separated by just two games in the race for the Division title:

AFC East Standings, as of Tuesday, December 21:

1. Patriots (9-5)

2. Bills (8-6)

3. Dolphins (7-7)

4. Jets (3-11)

The Patriots and Bills will meet on Sunday, December 26 at Gillette Stadium. New England has the chance to clinch the division title with a win over Buffalo and a Miami loss to the New Orleans Saints. Should Miami defeat New Orleans, the Pats would win the Division by defeating the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, January 2 (assuming a New England victory over Buffalo on 12/26).

Winners of six straight games, the Miami Dolphins have returned to the postseason discussion. The Dolphins who host the Patriots in Week Eighteen. Miami already holds a victory over the Patriots, having defeated New England in Week One at Gillette Stadium.

Conference Shuffle

Though they held the top spot in the conference just one week ago, the Patriots only slipped slightly in the race for AFC playoff seeding.

The Kansas City Chiefs are currently seeded first in the AFC following their Thursday night victory over the Los Angeles Chargers. With the Pats’ loss to the Colts, the Tennessee Titans had the chance to grab the second spot in the Conference. However, the Titans fell to the Pittsburgh Steelers 19-16 on Sunday, dropping them to the third slot. As a result, the Patriots hold the number two seed in the AFC, with three games to play.

Perhaps the biggest slide of the weekend belonged to the Baltimore Ravens, who lost to the Green Bay Packers 31-30. The Ravens have now lost three games in a row, knocking them out of first place in the AFC North and down to eighth in the conference standings. With their 15-10 victory over the Denver Broncos on Sunday, the Cincinnati Bengals have taken over the top spot in their division.

AFC Playoff picture, as of Tuesday, December 21

1. Kansas City Chiefs (10-4; AFC West leader)

2. New England Patriots (9-5; AFC East leader)

3. Tennessee Titans (9-5; AFC South leader)

4. Cincinnati Bengals (8-6; AFC North leader)

5. Indianapolis Colts (8-6; first wild card)

6. Los Angeles Chargers (8-6; second wild card)

7. Buffalo Bills (8-6; third wild card)

In the hunt: Baltimore Ravens (8-6), Cleveland Browns (7-7), Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6-1), Miami Dolphins (7-7), Denver Broncos (7-7), Las Vegas Raiders (7-7)

Pats Playoff Hopes — Still Pretty Good

While their loss to Indianapolis was far from ideal, the Patriots still have control of their own fate. Though their grasp on the top spots in the Division and Conference have slightly decreased, New England’s chances of qualifying for the postseason are significantly strong. According to the analytics of FiveThirtyEight, the Pats are a near statistical lock to return to the postseason, in some capacity.

FiveThirtyEight uses the Elo Rating system, which is a measure of strength based on head-to-head results and quality of opponent in determining playoff probability. In short, Elo assigns each team a power rating (the NFL average is around 1500). In both their traditional Elo rating, as well as a quarterback-adjusted rating (based on the team’s likely starter in its next game and how much better or worse that QB is than the opponent’s top starter) the Patriots are third in the NFL, behind the Kansas City Chiefs (1st) and the Green Bay Packers (2nd). Tom Brady and the the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, rank fourth, dropping one spot from the previous week. 

Here are the Patriots postseason odds, per FiveThirtyEight, as of Tuesday, December 22.

Make playoffs: 98% (even from previous week)

Win division: 67% (-13% change from previous week)

First-round bye: 23% (-24% change from previous week)

Win Super Bowl: 10% (-5% change from previous week)

The Patriots now return home to the friendly confines of Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts, as they host the Buffalo Bills for a post-Christmas matchup on Sunday, December 26, 2021 at 1:00pm ET.