Patriots Running Backs Have Favorable Fantasy Playoff Schedule in 2020

Weeks 14-16 of the regular season provide a good avenue for success for New England's backfield in 2020.

One way to designate how valuable a player could be to your fantasy team is determining what their matchups will look like when the fantasy playoffs begin, which is typically between Weeks 14-16 of the regular season. 

PFF released their running back strength of schedule for 2020, which gives a look at just that. However, they don't use last year's unit numbers to determine strength of schedule. Instead, they base it on what each defensive roster looks like heading into the 2020 season, and use PFF grades to establish the overall strength of matchup outlook for each position based on a team’s schedule.

The entire chart they created gives us a numerical value for RB strength of schedule for the entire season, but they also averaged out Weeks 14-16 to give a separate numerical value for those weeks, because, as I just mentioned, those are the typical weeks when fantasy playoffs take place. 

Here is the chart PFF created:

Overall, the Patriots backfield is in the middle of the pack in strength of schedule, ranking No. 16 in the league, to be exact. However, Weeks 14-16 for them ranks as the third-easiest schedule in the NFL for running backs. 

In those weeks, New England faces the Los Angeles Rams - who rank 10th worst in the league against the run - the Miami Dolphins - who rank 8th worst in the league - and the Buffalo Bills - who rank 11th worst in the league. 

In PPR leagues, Sony Michel - who is projected to be New England's primary early-down rusher next season - is going 96th overall based on his average draft position, and is the 34th running back off the board, according to Fantasy Pros. That means you can get him somewhere in the early-to-middle part of the eighth round in 12-team leagues. Other RBs going in that area of the draft are Miami's Matt Breida, Chicago's Tarik Cohen, and Tampa Bay's rookie RB Ke'Shawn Vaughn. 

James White - New England's primary pass-catcher out of the backfield - is going 77th overall and is the 29th running back off the board, per Fantasy Pros, which means he's going early in the seventh round in 12-team leagues. Others RBs going off the board around White are San Francisco's Raheem Mostert and Los Angeles rookie RB Cam Akers. 

With the Patriots' offensive line fully healthy heading into the season - which means they should return to their 2018 form as one of the best offensive lines in the NFL - it looks like New England is in line to run the ball a heckuva lot in 2020. However, their quarterback situation could impact the fantasy value of some of the players in their backfield. 

It's still to be determined who will be the starting quarterback for the Patriots, which, barring who the starting QB is, could significantly impact how the offense is run schematically. If Jarrett Stidham becomes the starter, then there may be an opportunity for more passes to be thrown, because he is a more gifted thrower of the football compared to Brian Hoyer. And that would ultimately lead to more opportunities for someone like White to catch passes. But if Hoyer starts the season under center, then a more conservative passing game could take place, which would impact White's ceiling as a PPR back in fantasy in a negative manner. 

Regardless of the quarterback situation, the distribution of touches in New England's backfield is a bit murky. Michel will likely begin the season getting the most touches, but it won't be by very much. At some point the Patriots have to use Damien Harris, who they drafted in the third round last year and basically red-shirted his rookie season. Along with that, we saw Rex Burkhead be a more effective runner on early downs compared to Michel at certain points last season, so he deserves to get carries as well. Because of that, a committee approach is likely in the works, which means selecting one of the Patriots' running backs in a season-long league may be asking for trouble, especially at their ADP, even if they have a favorable playoff schedule.