Pats in the Playoffs: Are the Patriots Headed for a Postseason Showdown with Bills or Bengals?

While the Patriots playoff future has yet to be written, the odds favor a potential first-round matchup with either the Buffalo Bills or Cincinnati Bengals.

The New England Patriots are back in the playoffs.

The Pats officially qualified for the postseason by defeating the Jacksonville Jaguars 50-10 on Sunday, January 2 at Gillette Stadium. However, it should be noted that they did so with a bit of help from an old friend. The Tennessee Titans, coached by former Patriots linebacker Mike Vrabel, defeated the Miami Dolphins 34-3, thus securing New England’s spot among the AFC’s seven playoff teams.

Their victory, coupled with the Dolphins loss, sends the Patriots back to postseason play after a one-year absence. They have now qualified for the playoffs in 18 out of 22 seasons under head coach Bill Belichick.

Although they may have punched their ticket to mid-January football, the Patriots' place among the seven playoff teams in the conference has yet to be determined. Ultimately, their fate may be decided on the outcome of Sunday’s Week Eighteen matchup with Miami. The 10-6 Patriots will take on the 8-8 Dolphins on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.

Let’s take a look at New England’s playoff-clinching scenarios heading into Week Eighteen:

A Chance for the Conference?

At the moment, the Patriots hold the fifth seed in the AFC playoff picture; the highest of three potential wild card spots.

1st — Tennessee Titans (11-5) (clinched AFC South)

2nd— Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) (clinched AFC West)

3rd — Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) (clinched AFC North)

4th — Buffalo Bills (10-6) (clinched playoffs)

5th — New England Patriots (10-6) (clinched playoffs)

6th — Indianapolis Colts (9-7)

7th — Los Angeles Chargers (9-7)

In the hunt: 8. Las Vegas Raiders (9-7), 9. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7-1), 11. Baltimore Ravens (8-8)

In order for New England to clinch the number one seed, thus earning the only first-round bye and home-field advantage in this year’s playoffs, the following would need to occur:

New England win + Buffalo loss or tie + Kansas City loss + Tennessee loss.

The above scenario is a long shot in and of itself. However, it becomes an even more unlikely scenario when considering that Kansas City (-10, vs. Denver Broncos), Tennessee (-10, vs. Houston Texans) and Buffalo (-16, vs. New York Jets) are all favored by at least ten points in their respective weekend matchups. In the overall race for the AFC, BetOnline.ag has New England at +650 to be crowned kings of the AFC, trailing the Kansas City Chiefs at +225, the Buffalo Bills at +350 and the Tennessee Titans as +425, despite their being the current number one seed.

Desire for the Division

With Miami’s loss to the Titans in Week Seventeen, the AFC East division title race was reduced to two teams: the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots; with the latter still clinging to slim hopes of capturing the Division crown. Heading into Sunday, the Bills are -2000 favorites in the race for the AFC, with the Patriots’ behind them at +1000. In terms of analytics, the Bills have a 95 percent chance of winning the AFC East, as opposed to the Patriots with a five percent chance, per FiveThirtyEight.com.

Here is a look at the Patriots potential path to the AFC East division title:

New England win + Buffalo loss or tie

-OR-

New England tie + Buffalo loss

If the Playoffs began today…

AFC First-Round Bye: Titans

AFC Wild Card Weekend Matchups:

Chargers (7 seed) @ Chiefs (2 seed)

Colts (6 seed) @ Bengals (3 seed)

Patriots (5 seed) @ Bills (4 seed)

Facing slim odds for capturing either the AFC’s top seed, or the Division, New England is most likely headed toward playing a football game on Wild Card weekend. While the outcome of several Week Eighteen matchups (including their own) will ultimately decide their opening round playoff fate, the Patriots first round opponent is likely to be either the Cincinnati Bengals, or their division rival Buffalo Bills.

What It Potentially Means: Patriots vs. Bills

In what would be the most-anticipated rubber match in the AFC playoff picture, the Patriots and Bills have a decent chance of seeing each other for the third time in seven weeks. For that to happen, favorites would need to win their games on Saturday and Sunday. In short, the Patriots beating the Dolphins, the Bills beating the Jets, the Bengals beating the Browns, the Chiefs beating the Broncos, and the Titans beating the Texans. If all of that happens, New England and Buffalo would meet yet again in the wild card round.

As divisional rivals, the two teams know each other well. The Pats and Bills have split their regular-season matchups. The Pats defeated the Bills 14-10 in Week Thirteen in Orchard Park, NY, while the Bills got the best of the Patriots 33-21 in Foxboro in Week Sixteen. Unlike New England, the Bills control their own destiny — a win, and the Division is theirs for the second straight season. Still, it should be noted that Bill Belichick has a 36-8 record against Buffalo since taking New England’s helm in 2000, including a 19-3 record when the games are played in Western New York. A third showdown between the Patriots and Bills would have the makings of an instant classic.

What It Potentially Means: Patriots vs. Bengals

While the two teams did not face off in 2021, the Bengals may actually be the more intriguing, and more formidable of the Patriots potential opponents. Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow has emerged as one of the league’s best at the position in just his second season. In addition to Burrow, the Bengals offensive attack includes running back Joe Mixon (1,205 rushing yards) and rookie wideout Ja’Marr Chase (1429 yards receiving, 13 touchdowns).

For this matchup to come to fruition, Cincinnati would need to drop its season-finale to the Cleveland Browns. If Cincinnati falls to the fourth seed, or if the Patriots drop from fifth to sixth, the two teams will face off in the first round of the playoffs.

What’s Past is Prologue?

While the mutual animosity between Patriots Fans and Bills fans would make for an interesting week of hype on social media, the Pats may be more statistically likely to face off against the Bengals. According to ESPN’s Seth Walder, the most likely playoff matchup involving New England is not Patriots-Bills (33% chance) but rather Patriots-Bengals (41% chance). As this season has shown on more than one occasion, anything is possible in the NFL on any given Sunday. Whether a new opponent, or the potential to avenge a bitter loss to a familiar foe is on the horizon, starts with earning a win in Week Eighteen.

The Patriots will travel to Miami Gardens, Florida for their final regular-season game of 2021, as they prepare to take on the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday, January 9, 2022, at 4:25pm ET.