Previewing the Patriots-Bills Week Sixteen Matchup from a Fantasy Perspective

Breaking down the SI.com fantasy recommendations and what they might mean for Sunday’s matchup at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts.

The New England Patriots continue to prepare for their post-Christmas date with their divisional-rival Buffalo Bills; a matchup which will have major implications on the pursuit of the 2021 AFC East title. The Pats and Bills will meet on Sunday, December 26 at Gillette Stadium, with kickoff set for 1:00pm ET. One of the many ways to examine the matchup is through the fantasy football perspective.

In that regard, let's look at Sports Illustrated Fantasy Editor Michael Fabiano's Week Sixteen Start 'Em and Sit 'Em as they pertain to the Pats-Bills battle on Sunday.

Here are the notable players mentioned in the matchup with Fabiano's comments, along with some additional insight, via Patriot Maven, on that particular projection.

‘Starts’ of the Week

Gabriel Davis at Patriots:

Fabiano’s Analysis:

“Davis has been on fire in recent weeks, scoring four touchdowns and a combined 51.8 fantasy points in his last three games. He should also continue to see a nice target share against the Patriots, as the Bills will be without both Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley this week. Davis, who is still on the waiver wire in some leagues, should be seen as quite an attractive flex starter.”

Patriot Maven Analysis:

With Cole Beasley out for Sunday’s matchup, Davis’ role is likely to expand. The 22-year-old has been one of Buffalo’s most versatile weapons on offensive in 2021. The Bills have been known to move feature wideout Stefon Diggs around the formation. This type of flexibility not only helps his teammates to get into position, but it will help him find open routes. Davis can be productive at all three levels: down the field, intermediate routes, and catch-and-run routes. He is also a very good blocker and he’s been a key guy for them in the run game as well. The Pats defensive backfield will have their hands full in defending talented pass catchers like Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders and tight end Dawson Knox, However, they will need to dedicate some energy to disrupting Davis. Otherwise, the wideout may be poised for a big day.

Dawson Knox at Patriots:

Fabiano’ Analysis:

“Knox posted an unimpressive stat line last week, and an upcoming matchup against the Patriots isn’t favorable. Still, the Bills being without both Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley creates a chance for Knox to see an uptick in targets. So while New England has allowed just two tight ends to score more than 9.2 fantasy points this season, I’m still rolling with Knox this weekend.”

Patriot Maven Analysis:

When it comes to productivity at the tight end position, Knox is certainly near the top of the list. The 25-year-old is at his best operating in the intermediate area of the field, as well as the end zone. However, in Week Thirteen, Patriots’ safety Adrian Phillips elevated his game to a level which allowed him to make Buffalo’s top tight end a non-factor on Monday night. Phillips took away Knox’s ability to utilize the middle of the field, holding him to merely two catches for 14 yards. Phillips was credited with two pass break-ups on Knox, each of which significantly shifted the momentum in the Patriots’ favor. With the return of Kyle Dugger to the lineup, Knox may find it difficult to be a major fantasy points producer on Sunday.

‘Sits’ of the Week

Hunter Henry vs. Bills:

Fabiano’s Analysis:

Henry will be tough to sit after his huge stat line against the Colts last weekend, so consider this a warning. He had failed to score more than 9.9 points in five of his previous six games, including four games with 4.3 or fewer. This week he faces the Bills, who have allowed just one tight end to put up more than 12.2 points against them. That included holding Henry to no points in Week 13.

Patriot Maven Analysis:

While Fabiano’s logic is solid here, Henry continues to prove himself to be the Patriots most reliable pass catcher, and arguably their best route runner. Henry caught six passes for 77 yards and two touchdowns, once again solid in the red zone. The 27-year-old now leads all NFL tight ends with nine touchdowns in 2021. His synergy with Mac Jones was on full display, as he played a major role in the Pats’ potential comeback. With the Pats (particularly Jones) looking to incorporate the passing game into their offense against Buffalo this time around, expect Henry to be a big part of their game plan.

Bills D/ST at Patriots:

Fabiano’s Analysis:

The Bills D/ST has struggled in recent weeks from a fantasy standpoint, scoring an average of 3.3 points in their last three contests. That includes a zero-point fantasy stink bomb against the Patriots just two weeks ago. So while sitting this unit in fantasy is difficult, you might want to consider that move.

Patriot Maven Analysis:

On the defensive side of the ball, the Bills are solid at all three levels. Still. As Fabiano points out above, Buffalo’s preventive unit (along with the special teams) was a barren producer for fantasy points. Some of that was dictated by the Pats game plan, which all but eliminated the Bills’ chances to make plays against New England’s passing game. Buffalo’s defense might be a tough sit, given their prowess, but a strong performance by the Patriots’ offense might make this a call worth making.