Previewing the Patriots-Bucs Matchup from a Fantasy Perspective

The New England Patriots will look to rebound when they face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, and one of the many ways to examine the matchup is through the fantasy football perspective.

In that vein, let's look at Sports Illustrated Fantasy Editor Michael Fabiano's Week 4 Start 'Em and Sit 'Em as they pertain to the Pats-Bucs battle on Sunday night.

Here are the notable players mentioned in the matchup with Fabiano's comments, along with some additional insight, via Patriot Maven, on that particular projection.

‘Starts’ of the Week

Tom Brady at Patriots

Fabiano’s Analysis:

“Is this one obvious? Absolutely. But who else but Brady would be the start of the week in his first game back at New England? He’ll be motivated to beat his former coach Bill Belichick and the Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Their defense has been tough on quarterbacks on paper this season, but the opposition has been the likes of Tua Tagovailoa, Zach Wilson and Jameis Winston.”

Patriot Maven Analysis:

Puttin emotion aside, Tom Brady will be highly-motivated to play at a high level on Sunday. The Bucs are entering Week Four, following a 34-24 loss to the Loas Angeles Rams. While the Pats defense will likely attempt to show Brady different looks (deploying multiple defensive backs, perhaps?) and apply pressure to his weak side, Brady will be equally adept at exploiting the Pats weakness with depth at outside corner. As such, Brady is well-positioned for a big game on Sunday.

Jakobi Meyers vs. Buccaneers

Fabiano’s Analysis:

“Meyers put up a nice stat line last week, posting nine catches for 94 yards on 14 targets. I like him as a FLEX starter in Week 4, as he'll face a potential negative game script against the Buccaneers. Their defense has allowed 62 catches, 723 yards, seven touchdowns and the most fantasy points to wideouts in their first three games, and the Patriots will have to throw a ton.”

Patriot Maven Analysis:

Meyers is the Patriots most reliable pass catcher. With James White reportedly landing on injured reserve, the Pats will look to the pass in order to make things happen on third down. Though Kendrick Bourne is coming off of a career-day against the Saints last week, Meyers will be the more frequent target for Mac Jones on Sunday. Nelson Agholor as a vertical option could be an intriguing choice for the start, as well…especially if the Pats decide to test the Tampa Bay secondary.

Rob Gronkowski at Patriots

Fabiano’s Analysis

“Can you say … revenge? Much like Tom Brady at quarterback, Gronkowski is my start of the week at his position in a contest against the Patriots. The matchup is bad on paper, as New England has surrendered the third-fewest points to tight ends in their last eight games. But you know coach Bruce Arians will want to get Gronkowski involved in a big way this week.”

Patriot Maven Analysis:

While Gronkowski would be a poor coverage matchup for the Pats safeties, the prolific ex-Pat has been tending to a rib injury, which he suffered in Tampa’s loss to the Rams on Sunday. Gronkowski did not participate in practice on Wednesday or Thursday, putting his status or Week Four in doubt. However, X-rays taken earlier in the week on Gronowski’s ribs were negative. Should he be able to suit up, he is likely to be limited. Still, Gronkowski is still a dangerous red zone target, even at less than 100 percent.

‘Sits’ of the Week:

Jonnu Smith vs. Buccaneers

Fabiano’s Analysis

“This week’s matchup against the Buccaneers is a nice one on paper, as their defense has allowed the 10th-most points to tight ends. The problem is that Smith has run a pass route on just 37.1 percent of Mac Jones's dropbacks after three weeks. That's far less than Hunter Henry, who has run a route on nearly 70 percent of dropbacks. At this point, Smith is a fade for me.”

Patriot Maven Analysis:

Smith is arguably coming off one of his worst performances as a pro. Smith saw only 30 snaps on Sunday against New Orleans, catching just one pass on six targets with two drops; one of which he fumbled directly into the hands of safety Malcolm Jenkins, who ran it back for a pick-six. While his stock is likely to go up, Smith will still be heavily targeted by Tampa’s defense. Therefore, he may still be a week, or two, away from a breakout performance.

Damien Harris vs. Buccaneers

Fabiano’s Analysis:

“Harris is coming off his worst line of the season, scoring a mere 3.1 fantasy points in a loss to the Saints. Things are unlikely to get better this week, as the Patriots will face a Buccaneers defense that has allowed just 57.2 rushing yards per game this season. This game could go sideways in a hurry for New England, so the potential for a negative game script is clear as well.”

Patriot Maven Analysis:

Harris struggled in both rushing and pass protection in Week Three. Though he is capable of bursting for bit yardage, he has been largely held in check. Much of that rests on the woes of the offensive line, who have been weakened by the absence of right tackle Trent Brown. If Brown is active, Harris could be an interesting option to get the fantasy start. However, if the Pats offensive line struggles continue, he is likely to find himself in the middle-of-the-pack on New England’s final stat line.

Patriots D/ST vs. Buccaneers

Fabiano’s Analysis:

“The Patriots D/ST has been solid to this point in the season, but this is not the week to start them. With Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and the explosive Buccaneers offense visiting Foxboro Stadium, New England’s defense could be in for a long afternoon. Keep the P-Men on the sidelines.”

Patriot Maven Analysis:

The Patriots front seven is much improved, as additions such as Matt Judon and Kyle Van Noy (at linebacker) and Davon Godchaux (at defensive tackle) have helped the Patriots to more easily set the edge and stop the run. The key to watch on Sunday will be the ease (or lack thereof) with which Tom Brady is able to find weaknesses in the Pats’ secondary. J.C. Jackson has been a solid primary option, but the Pats remain a bit thin beyond him. It is a certainty that Tom Brady knows that, and he will look to exploit it.

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