Why Are the Patriots So Inconsistent?

Despite a strong midseason performance, one major question surrounds the New England Patriots' future as they head into the postseason.

Being a New England Patriots fan right now is just flat-out weird. 

As the NFL heads to wildcard weekend, it's impossible to ignore the biggest question mark surrounding the Patriots; how and why is this team so dang inconsistent?

After a poor but promising 2-4 start to the season, New England went on a 7 game winning streak and found themselves at the top of the AFC heading into their bye week. Though they were supposed to have all the momentum in the world, the team has finished its season by losing 3 of its final 4 matchups.

In the immediate aftermath of each loss, the shock wasn't just from the result, but the manner of the result. For some inexplicable reason, it just looked like the team had no interest in playing football that given day.

But as random as these losses have seemed, the toughest pill to swallow for the Foxborough Faithful is that they might not be random and inconsistent at all.

This season, the Patriots have lost against the Miami Dolphins twice, the New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dallas Cowboys, Indianapolis Colts, and Buffalo Bills. All of these teams are either playoff teams or playoff-caliber teams and share a combined record of 63-39 (.618), averaging a 10.5-5.5 record in a 17 game season.

In comparison, the teams that New England beat had a combined record of 63-80 (.441), averaging a 7.5-9.5 record. 

Omitting the team's win against the heavily injured Tennessee Titans (who will be significantly healthier in the playoffs) and the win in hurricane-like winds against the Bills (unlikely to be replicated in the wildcard matchup), this figure drops further to 40-69 (.367), averaging a 6-11 record. 

Of course, these records don't tell the whole story. But they do tell a story nonetheless, and it's not a great one. 

It's not hard to see that the team's seemingly great output (6th in scoring offense, 2nd in scoring defense) is moreso the product of a team thriving against subpar competition than a team that is truly a contender. 

It's absolutely fair for Patriots fans to wonder if they should be worried about the current state of the team -- and to be frank, they should. Though anything can happen in January football, the team would have to fix an uncomfortably long list of fundamental issues to raise the Lombardi Trophy come February.

1. An Identity Crisis

Despite a relatively successful rookie year for Mac Jones, the identity of New England's offense should be the same now as it was before the season started: the Patriots should remain a primarily run-first team that thrives in the air on intermediate play action. 

All season, the team has seemed to have trouble marrying the air and ground game. The huddling pass offense just doesn't have the explosiveness or tempo to keep defenses on their heels. At a certain point, the offense needs to commit to either running more up-tempo passing or staying patient in the run game and controlling time of possession.

The 2018-19 New England squad seems like an apt analog; though the team struggled all year in the air, they found their identity in the post-season as a power running team. After softening defenses through the ground, the offense was able to effectively move the ball behind Tom Brady's arm against the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs. For the 2021 Patriots to find postseason success, they will probably have to take a similar approach. 

2. Early Deficits

However, the approach the 2018 New England offense took depended on one key factor: controlling the tempo of the game. Against both the Chargers and Chiefs, the offense rushed ahead to early leads and could rely on an established air and ground attack to clean up in the end-game. 

Nearly every loss for the 2021 Patriots has involved the team falling into an early hole and simply being unable to recover. For the team to have a strong four postseason games, they will need to jump to early leads each and every time; though executing well at the beginning of games won't guarantee a victory, it'll at least avoid guaranteeing a loss.

3. Untimely Turnovers

Recipe for Patriots success is pretty simple this year.

8-0 when winning turnover battle
1-6 when losing turnover battle
1-1 when turnover battle is tied

— Ryan Hannable (@RyanHannable) January 10, 2022

Patriots' turnover margin over the 7-game win streak: +13
Patriots' turnover margin in other 10 games: -6

— Ryan Hannable (@RyanHannable) January 10, 2022

The numbers just speak for themselves. Without careless turnovers, New England would have been in position to potentially eke out wins against the Dolphins (both times) and Cowboys.

Turnovers and early deficits go hand-in-hand for this offense. As a whole, Jones has done a solid job with ball security, but there will have to be an even greater emphasis on minimizing self-inflicted damage.

4. Sloppy Penalties

The referees have objectively made a slew of poor calls against the Patriots this season -- but that doesn't excuse the overall lack of discipline the team seems to express in losses.

Holding penalties have stalled countless promising offensive drives; unfortunate personal fouls have cost the defense multiple stops; ticky-tack pass interference calls have made a difference.

Stopping penalties is a matter of discipline and, to some extent, luck. Both will need to be on New England's side for a deep playoff run.

5. Poor Edge Discipline

The team's lack of edge discipline has been fairly self-evident in the run game, as opposing running backs have found success all year against New England's defense in bouncing runs to the outside or having wide open lanes on the backside. 

Against the passing game, the Patriots' edge rushers have a bad habit of rushing too far upfield and allowing mobile quarterbacks to run through completely vacant lanes. This lack of situational awareness has cost the team on valuable drives towards the end of the game, such as against Tua Taigavailoa in the regular season finale. 

With New England poised to face a slew of mobile quarterbacks en route to the Super Bowl, they would have to fix a glaring edge discipline problem and force quarterbacks to make tough throws under duress. 

6. Passive Decision Making

Bill Belichick is unequivocally the greatest head coach in the history of football -- but his lack of aggression on fourth down decisions has been something of a mystery. 

His decision to settle for an eventually game-losing field goal attempt against the Buccaneers was met with intense scrutiny. In Week 18, Belichick's passiveness on 4th&1 right before halftime was again, questionable, especially given the significance of 3 points later on in the game. 

New England will be underdogs in every game they play this postseason. At a certain point, critical decisions will have to be made with the goal of actually winning games, not just avoiding losing them.

Bottom Line:

Clearly, the team has an extensively long list of issues that need to be sorted out. Each of these points has been so ubiquitous in the season that each could truthfully be the topic of an individual article. Given the team's poor performance to close out the season, it's unlikely that these problems will fix themselves across 4 days of practice. 

However, as long as Belichick is at the helm, there is always a glimmer of hope that the team will harness the postseason magic that has blessed the franchise since the turn of the millennium.