SI

NFL Power Rankings: Chiefs Fall to No. 5 Despite Win Over Steelers

Kansas City has earned a first-round playoff bye, but there are several other teams that have looked like more convincing contenders throughout the season.

Conor Orr

Chiefs coach Andy Reid is on the precipice of overseeing the first 16–1 regular season in NFL history.
Chiefs coach Andy Reid is on the precipice of overseeing the first 16–1 regular season in NFL history. / Barry Reeger-Imagn Images
In this story:

Let me be the first to wish you a happy 2025 and let me also be the first to suggest eschewing the typical New Year’s resolutions in favor of something more simple: In every moment, let’s just try a little harder to love and appreciate one another; to work just a little bit harder and to care a little bit less about what other people think. After years of trying to do the life equivalent of running a marathon with no training, I’ve become a big fan of marginal gains. 

The Week 17 slate wasn’t necessarily beautiful or even decisive in giving us much of a clearer look at the playoff picture. But it did give us A.J. Brown firing poor Tanner McKee’s first career touchdown pass 30 rows into the Philadelphia sky (the guy gave it back for a signed jersey). 

To me, that’s good enough. 

1. Buffalo Bills (13–3)

Last week’s ranking: No. 1
Last week’s result: beat New York Jets, 40–14
This week: at New England

Good Tuesday morning to the Buffalo Bills, who have an MVP favorite, the No. 2 seed on lockdown in the AFC and will either host a rookie quarterback or the Miami Dolphins (most likely) in the first round of the playoffs. Remember back in the preseason when I picked every team’s record and nervously phoned my editor to ask if it would be too controversial to have this team winning the division over the Jets? 

2. Detroit Lions (14–2)

Last week’s ranking: No. 2
Last week’s result: beat San Francisco, 40–34
This week: vs. Minnesota

#GRIT

*Also, how do you not love Aaron Glenn and Dan Campbell throwing safety blitzes at the 49ers when up 12 with fewer than two minutes to play? 

3. Philadelphia Eagles (13–3)

Last week’s ranking: No. 5
Last week’s result: beat Dallas, 41–7
This week: vs. New York Giants

Full column on the upcoming Saquon Barkley decision here. The TL;DR version? I can almost stomach putting Barkley out there on his own but when the record necessitates an all-in performance from a banged-up offensive line and a handful of wide receivers who have spent the season blocking for this guy downfield, is it really worth it?  

4. Minnesota Vikings (14–2)

Last week’s ranking: No. 4
Last week’s result: beat Green Bay, 27–25
This week: at Detroit

A switch to a man-heavy defense against the Packers threw a massive wrench into Green Bay’s plans offensively. It led to an enjoyable game I like to call: Pause Game Pass during Vikings games just before the QB is about to throw and see if there’s anyone open. Outside of a well-timed screen call from Matt LaFleur, the answer for the better part of a decisive first half was no. The Vikings just play so soundly, and even when playing crossers where defenders have to switch, there’s no hiccups.  

5. Kansas City Chiefs (15–1)

Last week’s ranking: No. 3
Last week’s result: beat Pittsburgh, 29–10
This week: at Denver

A few weeks back I mentioned that Carson Wentz didn’t look bad in his limited action. If Kansas City does, indeed, decide to rest starters this weekend, it’s a really interesting test to see what the Chiefs look like under similar circumstances faced by teams that have passed them by in the power rankings, like Minnesota and Philadelphia. Can Wentz hang around against a good Broncos defense? We’re constantly moving the goalposts on Kansas City in this forum, but that would shock me out of my unfair bias. 

6. Baltimore Ravens (11–5)

Last week’s ranking: No. 7
Last week’s result: beat Houston, 31–2
This week: vs. Cleveland

Just look at this thread below and ask yourself: how are we going to coach our defensive line against the Ravens in the postseason? If we’re hyper aggressive, we’ll get trapped at every turn. If we sit back, Derrick Henry is going to run all over us anyway. Todd Monken can be so demoralizing to play against with this personnel. 

7. Green Bay Packers (11–5)

Last week’s ranking: No. 6
Last week’s result: lost to Minnesota, 27–25
This week: vs. Chicago

I sympathize with Matt LaFleur on the offsides call, which, I cannot say with any degree of certainty was correct or incorrect (the All-22 sideline view in this case is angled just enough to throw off the integrity of the view). But I am also so happy that he gifted us with an incredibly demonstrative timeout right afterward, making for a rare double-ice of a kicker. The world needs more people who hate to lose. 

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson
Steelers QB Russell Wilson has thrown for just 550 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions in Pittsburgh’s last three games, all losses. / Barry Reeger-Imagn Images

8. Pittsburgh Steelers (10–6)

Last week’s ranking: No. 8
Last week’s result: lost to Kansas City, 29–10
This week: vs. Cincinnati

A four-game losing streak to end the season is not unprecedented for the Steelers, who have routinely struggled in the month of December. But in this particular case, it would be incredibly debilitating to enter the playoffs having been soundly disposed of by the best teams on your schedule all in rapid succession. 

9. Washington Commanders (11–5)

Last week’s ranking: No. 9
Last week’s result: beat Atlanta, 30–24
This week: at Dallas

Probably the most devastating part of the Jayden Daniels experience is that you cannot get him off the field on critical downs. In a huge game against the Atlanta Falcons, Daniels was 9-for-12, picked up 10 first downs and threw three touchdowns on either third or fourth down. That is absolutely brutal. 

10. Los Angeles Rams (10–6)

Last week’s ranking: No. 10
Last week’s result: beat Arizona, 13–9
This week: vs. Seattle

While this is an incredibly random sample size—and in this same sample size the Raiders are the No. 1 defense in the NFL in terms of EPA per play—the Rams have been one of the best defenses in the NFL over the last month. Sean McVay’s club is winning shootouts but has also now gone three straight weeks without allowing double-digit points (one of those games was in inclement weather, though another was against a Jets team at home in cold weather, which would seem to be disadvantageous to the Rams). 

11. Los Angeles Chargers (10–6)

Last week’s ranking: No. 12
Last week’s result: beat New England, 40–7
This week: at Las Vegas

At this point, we need another HarBowl, yes? Part of me wants to see the Chargers advance and I think, even despite their rash of injuries, they would have an infinitely better chance against Pittsburgh. That said, it’s time to manifest with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. 

12. Cincinnati Bengals (8–8)

Last week’s ranking: No. 15
Last week’s result: beat Denver, 30–24
This week: at Pittsburgh

The Bengals are playing like one of the 12 best teams in the NFL right now. Ideally, they are the team we had in mind when the NFL introduced a seventh playoff seed and are the perfect foil especially if we can get a repeat defensive performance out of the Bengals like we got Saturday versus Denver. If nothing else, this season of half measures will provide a personnel blueprint heading into a critical offseason for the Bengals. 

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9–7)

Last week’s ranking: No. 19
Last week’s result: beat Carolina, 48–14
This week: vs. New Orleans

A long and circuitous path has led us back to where we began the season: the Buccaneers are capable of losing in the first round of the playoffs and capable of beating the No. 1 seed by three touchdowns. They are nuclear level volatile and I am so much happier to see them in the postseason driver’s seat than Atlanta. 

14. Denver Broncos (9–7)

Last week’s ranking: No. 14
Last week’s result: lost to Cincinnati, 30–24
This week: vs. Kansas City

If I’m Andy Reid, I most certainly do not want to see Joe Burrow in the playoffs. But I would probably rather see Miami than Denver. And while I’m assuming we’ll be fed some platitude about how we play every game to win, Reid does have a pretty favorable schedule layout in which to determine how he wants to deploy his starters, or if he wants to at all. Losing to a mish-mosh of first stringers is a non-starter for Sean Payton and a really dangerous Broncos team. 

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud, right, scrambles as Baltimore Ravens defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike gives chase.
Stroud posted a season-worst 13.2 QBR against a Ravens defense that has struggled at times this season to contain the pass game. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

15. Houston Texans (9–7)

Last week’s ranking: No. 11
Last week’s result: lost to Baltimore, 31–2
This week: at Tennessee

All of the biomarkers in a massive loss to the Ravens in which the offense was shut out were troubling. C.J. Stroud again looked frozen against split safety looks, the defense was stomped out by Derrick Henry (Houston is not alone here) and Lamar Jackson was allowed to spend more time from snap to throw than at any other point this season with no punishment. Barring a major identity shift, the Texans are looking like a prime candidate to get boat raced just as their playoff journey begins. 

16. San Francisco 49ers (6–10)

Last week’s ranking: No. 21
Last week’s result: lost to Detroit, 40–34
This week: at Arizona

In the first half Monday, Brock Purdy was delivering in a game that may not have meant much for the 49ers, but meant a great deal to a quarterback who is still struggling to prove that he is worthy of a long-term deal commensurate with the market. 

In the second half, Purdy was playing like a quarterback who was going to be subject to the most grating and frustrating offseason-long conversation in recent NFL history.

After the game, Purdy’s medical evaluation on his throwing shoulder became one of the biggest stories in the NFL with massive ramifications for the free agent QB market on tap depending on the prognosis. 

17. Miami Dolphins (8–8)

Last week’s ranking: No. 13
Last week’s result: beat Cleveland, 20–3
This week: at New York Jets

I actually thought Tyler Huntley saw the field pretty well against the Browns. It helps when every single one of your throws to Tyreek Hill are completed and all but two of them aren’t really contested all that much. Cleveland didn’t show much of an interest in trying to remove Miami’s best playmaker from the equation. 

18. Seattle Seahawks (9–7)

Last week’s ranking: No. 18
Last week’s result: beat Chicago, 6–3
This week: at Los Angeles Rams

I thought Mike Macdonald handled the end of game situation really well, especially the suite of all-out blitz looks he showed Caleb Williams with the game on the line. Williams made a throw of the year candidate on one, and on the second, Macdonald didn't drop any of the rushers at the line after dropping two from the previous look. Williams was clearly scattered and tossed up a lob that was picked. 

19. Arizona Cardinals (7–9)

Last week’s ranking: No. 20
Last week’s result: lost to Los Angeles Rams, 13–9
This week: vs. San Francisco 

Sometimes teams get these weeks. They’re horrible in the red zone, which negates an astronomical advantage in time of possession, total yards and first downs, all of which the Cardinals had. These strange spurts have come at a disappointing time for a Cardinals team that I thought was good enough to hang around and pester for a No. 7 seed. 

20. Atlanta Falcons (8–8)

Last week’s ranking: No. 17
Last week’s result: lost to Washington, 30–24
This week: vs. Carolina

I am coming around a bit to Raheem Morris’s Day Two explanation of timeout usage—essentially that Atlanta had the defensive personnel they wanted for a more advantageous situation and so they didn’t want to give the Commanders a break to switch up—but I still think it’s ignoring how well Penix has seen the game so far and how incredibly capable he is at throwing into tight windows. Don’t get it twisted; I’m not saying Raheem Morris is babying Penix or downplaying his intelligence. But I am saying that if you’re drawing up a pros and cons column of using the timeout, cooling the situation down, giving him a breather and letting him rip is still infinitely better than wasting a third of the clock trying to get him a slightly better look.  

Indianapolis Colts head coach Shane Steichen
Colts head coach Shane Steichen was in charge of a team that appeared to quit midway through a shellacking at the hands of the lowly Giants. / Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

21. Indianapolis Colts (7–9)

Last week’s ranking: No. 16
Last week’s result: lost to New York Giants, 45–33
This week: vs. Jacksonville

The overall badness of the bottom 12 in the power rankings prevents me from adequately expressing my frustration about Indianapolis’s defense on Sunday against the Giants. As I outline a few blurbs later, this was just a horrible, unwilling performance by a defense that still had something to play for. More than half of Drew Lock’s passing yards Sunday came on yards made after the catch. Sure, it’s Malik Nabers doing this to you, but that’s still an indicator of a secondary in need of a physicality makeover. 

22. Dallas Cowboys (7–9)

Last week’s ranking: No. 22
Last week’s result: lost to Philadelphia, 41–7
This week: vs. Washington

Not a surprise, but since Micah Parsons has returned from injury he’s been the best pass rusher in the NFL. Like Myles Garrett suggesting he’d want to know the plan before deciding on his future in Cleveland, I’d make a similar request if I were Parsons. A truly generational talent gets that kind of treatment. Why sign up to be willingly ignored and strung along contractually?  

23. Las Vegas Raiders (4–12)

Last week’s ranking: No. 30
Last week’s result: beat New Orleans, 25–10
This week: vs. Los Angeles Chargers

An underrated aspect of Brock Bowers’s multi-record breaking game on Sunday was the gap between targets and how he could involve himself in the game plan despite the way he was being covered. He was hit twice on the first two plays of the game and then was swallowed up by a fast-switching New Orleans defense that made some smart prohibitive moves. Just before halftime, though, Bowers saw Aidan O’Connell in trouble and extended an in-breaking route into a wide open swath of space and went vertical behind the nearest defenders to gain space.  

24. Chicago Bears (4–12)

Last week’s ranking: No. 26
Last week’s result: lost to Seattle, 6–3
This week: at Green Bay

Some followers of the power rankings get quite upset when a bad team moves up after a loss. This seems especially true of the Bears. Though this was purely a factor of some other teams, like the Giants, getting a win and moving up. Caleb Williams’s fourth down throw after the absolutely comical false start, punt, timeout and fourth down attempt was absolutely absurd against a nine man front that eventually dropped two and rushed seven. His talent is undeniable and, if surrounded by a true tactician who understands clock management and can force Williams to stop burning so much time, will blossom. 

25. Carolina Panthers (4–12)

Last week’s ranking: No. 24
Last week’s result: lost to Tampa Bay, 48–14
This week: at Atlanta

The Panthers had their worst statistical outing in terms of yardage allowed since 2021. It looked a lot like this: 

And, oddly enough, Caleb Farley was, for some reason, left alone on Evans in a goal line situation not long after that touchdown catch. It went how you might imagine it’d go. 

26. New York Giants (3–13)

Last week’s ranking: No. 32
Last week’s result: beat Indianapolis, 45–33
This week: at Philadelphia

The Giants ran into a Colts team that gave up. In my notes from this one, I had underlined several really good blocks from Daniel Bellinger, one really heads-up block from Wan’Dale Robinson on the long Malik Nabers touchdown and one from Evan Neal on the previous Nabers touchdown. The flip side is a startling lack of effort from this Colts defense. The Neal block, for example, was simply the offensive tackle hurling himself at a defender and missing (for the most part). The Giants have had some bad luck this year, so it was nice to finally see them run into a team that put forth the kind of effort the Giants defense has at some points this year. 

27. New Orleans Saints (5–11)

Last week’s ranking: No. 23
Last week’s result: lost to Las Vegas, 25–10
This week: at Tampa Bay

Spencer Rattler had a kind of Anthony Richardson game in that many of his incompletions were either drops or throwaways, or a big gain was negated by some kind of disastrous penalty. He really only threw one horrible pass and it came after, you guessed it, a better pass that was negated by penalty. As much as one can come away impressed with a quarterback after losing 25–10 to the Raiders, I was with Rattler.  

28. Jacksonville Jaguars (4–12)

Last week’s ranking: No. 31
Last week’s result: beat Tennessee, 20–13
This week: at Indianapolis

The Jaguars played a video of the opposing quarterback beating the s--- out of their mascot video game style on the JumboTron on Sunday. Maybe just stick to Brian Thomas Jr. highlights! 

29. New England Patriots (3–13)

Last week’s ranking: No. 27
Last week’s result: lost to Los Angeles Chargers, 40–7
This week: vs. Buffalo

While the Chargers had Drake Maye’s number with the blitz later on in the game, I still found him to be incredibly decisive in the first half when the game was still in a manageable score situation. He seemed to recognize quickly that there was no one there to prevent him from scrambling and, understanding the offensive line situation, he was quick to take off. His touchdown throw, which came on an offsides bonus play, was an incredible bit of situational recognition and came while he was being hit. 

30. Cleveland Browns (3–13)

Last week’s ranking: No. 29
Last week’s result: lost to Miami, 20–3
This week: at Baltimore

We’re fairly certain that the Browns—again—are artfully trying their best to produce a roster that is not conducive to winning games. If you’d like to read about the first iteration of this attempt, check here. My question is whether the goal is to end up at the top of a bad quarterback draft class to select a quarterback, or to end up there in hopes that they can trade out of a pick that seemingly very few teams might actually want. As I have said many times in this space, let’s keep an eye on those sneaky little buggers. 

31. New York Jets (4–12)

Last week’s ranking: No. 25
Last week’s result: lost to Buffalo, 40–14
This week: vs. Miami

The end of this Jets season reminds me of the finale of their 2011 year, in which a star-studded team with Santonio Holmes, LaDainian Tomlinson, Plaxico Burress and more were gutted on Christmas by the Giants and then melted down against the Miami Dolphins. Those players, like these, were just so battered from a long season that many of them seemed happy to pack up their bags and leave. Just look at what DJ Reed said on Sunday after the Jets lost to the Bills: 

32. Tennessee Titans (3–13)

Last week’s ranking: No. 28
Last week’s result: lost to Jacksonville, 20–13
This week: vs. Houston

Let’s check in on the Ti…..

Published
Conor Orr
CONOR ORR

Conor Orr is a senior writer for Sports Illustrated, where he covers the NFL and cohosts the MMQB Podcast. Orr has been covering the NFL for more than a decade and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America. His work has been published in The Best American Sports Writing book series and he previously worked for The Newark Star-Ledger and NFL Media. Orr is an avid runner and youth sports coach who lives in New Jersey with his wife, two children and a loving terrier named Ernie.

Home/NFL