NFL Power Rankings: Chiefs Slip After Suffering First Defeat

The two-time defending champs finally lost a game, while the Steelers and Eagles continue their climbs toward the top.

Andy Reid and the Chiefs dropped their first game of the season in a 30–21 loss to the Buffalo Bills. / Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Just because something needs to change doesn’t mean it will. After doing these Power Rankings for 11 weeks now, I can say with confidence that there are not a great deal of good football teams available. In fact, if the Super Bowl champion doesn’t come from within the top eight on this list, I would be incredibly stunned. There is a very small middle class in the NFL of teams that could ebb either way and a massive swath of the NFL that we would love to relegate out of existence (if there are no NFL clubs in New Jersey how are television broadcasts going to show us photos of the 45-minutes-away Statue of Liberty?). 

I’ll have more thoughts on the long-term consequences of this as we inch closer to next week’s slate of games but for now I’ll say this: Don’t be surprised if what we saw from the Lions on Sunday against the Jaguars becomes more commonplace. The war is on between teams that are willing to build the right way and teams that would be just as happy getting “roasted” by Stephen A. Smith every Monday morning. 

Anyway, let’s get rolling, shall we? A lot to cover in a packed version of the MMQB Power Rankings…

1. Detroit Lions (9–1)

Last week’s ranking: No. 1
Last week’s result: beat Jacksonville, 52–6
This week: at Indianapolis

We’ll begin here to say this: I was happy the Lions throttled the Jaguars over the weekend. When I was reporting out the cover story for this year’s football preview issue in Detroit, the theme of controlling the controllable essentially saved the Lions’ franchise. Wading through the muck can seem so daunting when you consider the entirety of it all … but less so when you just focus on one step. The Lions aren’t worried about a Super Bowl right now, the team put together a plan against Jacksonville; specific plays for Jacksonville. It’s not Detroit’s fault that the Jaguars opted not to show up or stop them. 

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2. Buffalo Bills (9–2)

Last week’s ranking: No. 3
Last week’s result: beat Kansas City, 30–21
This week: bye

A full column here on Sean McDermott’s big fourth-and-2 decision, but the TLDR is this: It was a massive choice in both the macro and micro sense; a great, confidence-building call for Joe Brady; and an even greater confidence-building call for Sean McDermott. Josh Allen said it best after the game: McDermott put his faith in his players. They’re going to remember as much later in the season.

3. Kansas City Chiefs (9–1)

Last week’s ranking: No. 2
Last week’s result: lost to Buffalo, 30–21
This week: at Carolina

Now the Chiefs know precisely what they can and cannot get away with. The pass rush needs to improve. And pass protection as well. Patrick Mahomes was under pressure on nearly 40% of his snaps despite the Bills rushing more than four defenders on roughly 22% of Mahomes’s dropbacks. The Bills did an excellent job, in my opinion, of layering pressure and attacking Mahomes during the latter parts of his drop when he is normally able to extend plays and allow wide receivers to break open. 

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (8–2)

Last week’s ranking: No. 7
Last week’s result: beat Baltimore, 18–16
This week: at Cleveland

Full column here on the magic of Mike Tomlin. The quick version: The Steelers beat the Ravens because of three moments on Sunday that are directly attributed to head coaching. One, calling a timeout just as Baltimore was executing its jump pass attempt on a 2-point conversion that would have tied the game. Two, calling a timeout and shuffling in Justin Fields after Pittsburgh got the ball back. Three, gassing up Patrick Queen pre-game and allowing him to be a captain for the coin toss. Queen forced a massive fumble that led to points just before the half. 

5. Philadelphia Eagles (8–2)

Last week’s ranking: No. 6
Last week’s result: beat Washington, 26–18
This week: at Los Angeles Rams

Jayden Daniels, welcome to Vic Fangio Land. Almost five yards of average separation for receivers per play. A 7% blitz rate on Sunday and … Daniels’s worst game in terms of net yards per attempt and quarterback rating. The deep zone looks—a lot of Cover 4—was instrumental in keeping Daniels in the pocket (his second fewest rushing yards to date) and offering him nothing down the field. 

6. Minnesota Vikings (8–2)

Last week’s ranking: No. 5
Last week’s result: beat Tennessee, 23–13
This week: at Chicago

Sam Darnold was the third-best performer against the Titans this season, which doesn’t feel significant until one realizes that the Titans are the second-most zone-heavy team in the NFL. Darnold has shredded man coverage this season but has struggled against teams that play a higher load of zone. Much like we’re talking about Jayden Daniels seeing a lot of deep coverage looks, teams adjusted to Darnold, caused a bit of a squeeze statistically, and now we see him coming out the other side like good quarterbacks do. 

7. Baltimore Ravens (7–4)

Last week’s ranking: No. 4
Last week’s result: lost to Pittsburgh, 18–16
This week: at Los Angeles Chargers

The Steelers absolutely severed Baltimore’s deep passing game. A lot has been said about Lamar Jackson’s record against the Steelers but I’d be more concerned about Jackson’s deep ball numbers over the last two weeks. 

• vs. Pittsburgh: 0-for-3, CPOE: -32%
• vs. Cincinnati: 0-for-4, CPOE: -41%

Compare that to Week 9 against a good Vance Joseph defense where Jackson was 3-of-3 on deep shots for a +41.4% CPOE. 

What has been uncovered that’s causing Jackson not to like what he’s seeing deep? 

Herbert is averaging a career-high 7.9 yards per pass attempt through 10 games this season, and notched a season-high 65 rushing yards on Sunday against Cincinnati. / Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

8. Los Angeles Chargers (7–3)

Last week’s ranking: No. 9
Last week’s result: beat Cincinnati, 34–27
This week: at Baltimore

The Chargers got the absolute best out of the Bengals not only offensively but defensively too. Justin Herbert threw a league high 27.8% of his throws into tight coverage on Sunday night against a very good—for one week at least—Bengals defense. Herbert also dealt with a paltry average wideout separation rating, which was more than a yard below the league leader from Sunday. 

9. Green Bay Packers (7–3)

Last week’s ranking: No. 8
Last week’s result: beat Chicago, 20–19
This week: vs. San Francisco

I am buying big on the Packers because this team has unbelievable biomarkers and still underwhelming performances despite those numbers—some of which are luck adjusted. They are horrendous in the red zone and lost two big opportunities there on Sunday. And Love was just O.K. despite having the most open wide receivers in terms of average separation in all of Week 11. So basically, if they are 7–3 despite all this, imagine what happens if Love gets on another end-of-year heater like he did last season. 

10. Arizona Cardinals (6–4)

Last week’s ranking: No. 12
Last week’s result: bye
This week: at Seattle

Next up after the bye? Seattle, Minnesota, Seattle in a stretch that will define this very fun Cardinals season. I expected Arizona to be in the mix here but I did not expect the 49ers and the Rams to be so unable to gain separation. This is a position that typically favors youth and fresh legs, something the Cardinals have plenty of.  

11. Washington Commanders (7–4)

Last week’s ranking: No. 10
Last week’s result: lost to Philadelphia, 26–18
This week: at Dallas

One thing that has been fairly remarkable about the Commanders’ run thus far is how remarkably well-timed the offense is. If you look at Daniels’s time-to-throw splits, only the second Giants game is a major outlier, and even in games where he appears to struggle (and struggle is a very relative word compared to the rest of the NFL and considering the fact that he’s wearing a kevlar vest right now to shield a rib injury), he’s still only about 0.10 second per throw off from Tom Brady-like numbers. That’s cool. 

12. San Francisco 49ers (5–5)

Last week’s ranking: No. 11
Last week’s result: lost to Seattle, 20–17
This week: at Green Bay

It’s still hard for me to comprehend the 49ers being 5–5. If I told you that a team had the eighth highest-scoring team in the league, a defense that’s top-10 in passing yards, touchdowns allowed and interceptions, and a system that ranks top three in time of possession, yards per drive and plays run per drive, you’d guess they were pretty good, right? Green Bay, Buffalo, the Rams, Arizona and Detroit are still lurking on this schedule. 

13. Los Angeles Rams (5–5)

Last week’s ranking: No. 21
Last week’s result: beat New England, 28–22
This week: vs. Philadelphia

I’m not saying this to be snarky, but there’s nothing about Matthew Stafford that screams blitz him more than any team in the NFL and see what happens. Stafford is a vet, still sneaky athletic and has a cannon alongside a deep roster of cerebral wide receivers. New England sent extra rushers against Stafford on 63% of his throws. The Patriots’ final stat line? Four QB hits. No sacks. 

14. Seattle Seahawks (5–5)

Last week’s ranking: No. 19
Last week’s result: beat San Francisco, 20–17
This week: vs. Arizona

So this is why the Seahawks hired Mike Macdonald. Absent the offensive mind that was going to match wits with Shanahan and McVay, the option was there to get the defensive coach who could slow them down. Macdonald hurled a major curveball at Brock Purdy, blitzing him on 40% of his dropbacks after throwing up these numbers in the preceding weeks: 29.5%, 18%, 15% and 20%.

That last 20% was against Purdy in the Seahawks’ first matchup with Shanahan this year. So, half the number of designed blitzes as this week. 

15. Denver Broncos (6–5)

Last week’s ranking: No. 17
Last week’s result: beat Atlanta, 38–6
This week: at Las Vegas

I’m not sure what to do with this information but I thought it was interesting, via NextGenStats: Bo Nix was the first quarterback in the NFL this year to score multiple touchdowns on passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage. I suppose you could say that’s Sean Payton putting him in good positions, or a coach realizing that the Falcons’ secondary had no interest in tackling after the game was clearly out of reach. Another check in the box for Payton is a continued use of creative backfield motion, which was a critical part of Nix’s first touchdown pass to Nate Adkins (beyond the line of scrimmage). 

16. Houston Texans (7–4)

Last week’s ranking: No. 13
Last week’s result: beat Dallas, 34–10
This week: vs. Tennessee

After Cooper Rush coughed up a fumble leading to a knockout-blow defensive touchdown, this game stopped looking close. This is a “win your clunker” special for the Texans but I have a very conservative position on them in the power rankings thanks to an inescapable feeling that I shouldn’t trust them. C.J. Stroud has not hit triple digits on his passer rating since Oct. 13 now. Since Oct. 20, Stroud has thrown just two touchdowns to three picks. 

17. Atlanta Falcons (6–5)

Last week’s ranking: No. 15
Last week’s result: lost to Denver, 38–6
This week: bye

The Falcons getting ripped by the Broncos confirmed some of my worst fears about this team: that the roster deficiencies that were saddled upon Arthur Smith are still there with a little bit of light wallpapering. It’s been fascinating to watch both Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers try and function off different branches of an offense that requires the ability for them to perform boot action. And even more so to see Cousins running play action on 3% of his dropbacks on Sunday against Denver. Bo Nix, on the other sideline, used a 40% play action rate. 

18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4–6)

Last week’s ranking: No. 16
Last week’s result: bye
This week: at New York Giants

As everyone knows, I’ve always been a major supporter of the Buccaneers. Now hear this: Mike Evans has returned to practice. Tampa Bay now faces the Giants, Panthers and Raiders over the next three weeks. I would guess that Tampa Bay goes into mid-December as the betting favorite to win the NFC South. Their bye week could not have come at a better time. 

Hill had a signature performance against the Browns, logging 222 all-purpose yards and three touchdowns. / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

19. New Orleans Saints (4–7)

Last week’s ranking: No. 22
Last week’s result: beat Cleveland, 35–14
This week: bye

Darren Rizzi, you had me at admitting you clogged the toilet. Now you green light the world’s greatest stat line of all time. How can I not want you to earn the full-time head coaching gig?

Taysom Hill:

• 1-of-2 passing, 18 yards, INT
• Seven rushes, 138 yards, 3 TDs
• Eight catches on 10 targets, 50 yards

20. Indianapolis Colts (5–6)

Last week’s ranking: No. 20
Last week’s result: beat New York Jets, 28–27
This week: vs. Detroit

Going into this game, Anthony Richardson had a god-awful 48% completion rate when not under pressure. Against the Jets, he was pressured on about a third of his snaps and blitzed on about a quarter of his snaps and looked … really good. My thought is that Shane Steichen buried the Jets with constant play action—a league high for Week 11 at 48.5%—at a time when opponents feared Steichen was going to hide Richardson behind a running game. 

21. Chicago Bears (4–6)

Last week’s ranking: No. 18
Last week’s result: lost to Green Bay, 20–19
This week: vs. Minnesota

I thought that the ghost of situational issues left Matt Eberflus’s soul just before halftime of this game when he tried so hard to outthink himself by utilizing timeouts to squeeze just the perfect amount of clock time away from the Packers to prevent another gutting, stunning end of half play. And then the field goal was blocked. At this point, as he now wades through the hardest back-end schedule remaining in the NFL, all we can do is pray. 

Worth noting: New play-caller Thomas Brown did an excellent job of getting Caleb Williams to release the ball quickly. And Caleb Williams did a really good job of taking free real estate on the ground even though it’s clear that’s not the game he prefers to play. 

22. Cincinnati Bengals (4–7)

Last week’s ranking: No. 14
Last week’s result: lost to Los Angeles Chargers, 34–27
This week: bye

More than anything, I think this Bengals season was a failure to capture a vibe. This team looked incredibly defeated on the sideline against Los Angeles Sunday and while it’s hard not to when you miss field goals on consecutive drives in the fourth quarter, the fact that everyone except the quarterback and maybe one or two of his playmakers on any given play look like there’s some fight left in them reflects something in the process that seems to be missing.  

23. Miami Dolphins (4–6)

Last week’s ranking: No. 23
Last week’s result: beat Las Vegas, 34–19
This week: vs. New England

The Dolphins, along with the Colts and 49ers, all sit between a 23% and 29% chance of reaching the postseason according to The New York Times’s postseason prediction model. One of these teams is going to make the playoffs, and while I don’t know if Miami is capable I will say this: Jalen Ramsey played the final downs of this game like it was the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl. If anybody on this team has surrendered, I haven’t seen it yet. 

24. Dallas Cowboys (3–7)

Last week’s ranking: No. 26
Last week’s result: lost to Houston, 34–10
This week: at Washington

A weekend of entertainment in Dallas: a boxing match in which a YouTuber in his 20s beat a tired old man nearing his 60th birthday followed by a falling chunk of metal the size of a Great Dane fell from the roof. Chance of a death on both accounts … surprisingly high! 

25. New England Patriots (3–8)

Last week’s ranking: No. 24
Last week’s result: lost to Los Angeles Rams, 28–22
This week: at Miami

I thought Alex Van Pelt called a nice game in this one. It’s just something we don’t say a lot but probably should. It was clear early on, from a completely blown block on a Rams stunt to some secondary pressures, that Chris Shula wanted to bring the heat on the rookie. But New England had a lot of answers for Drake Maye. It’s about that time to start thinking about what the Patriots want with this staff as they head into next season and I’d argue that Van Pelt has done a good job—certainly in the mix for the best job with a rookie if we factor in surrounding talent. 

26. New York Jets (3–8)

Last week’s ranking: No. 27
Last week’s result: lost to Indianapolis, 28–27
This week: bye

I have a lot of respect for Sauce Gardner but was taken aback by his comments about not needing a tackling tutorial after the team was demolished by the Cardinals (this, before this defense was stunned by Anthony Richardson on a game-winning drive a few weeks after Richardson was removed from the starting lineup for failing to complete a pass). Jeff Ulbrich has been thrust into a bad situation but that shouldn’t make him out to be a know-nothing. This was a highly accomplished NFL vet who very likely would have been a head coach in 2025 elsewhere if Woody Johnson hadn’t nuked this team in Week 5. 

27. Cleveland Browns (2–8)

Last week’s ranking: No. 28
Last week’s result: lost to New Orleans, 35–14
This week: vs. Pittsburgh

The Browns have devolved into a kind of dark post-comedy. I get that some people think the Jameis Winston bit is entertaining but, like, this is the culmination of almost a decade’s worth of work. This is what your team is. Since 2016: Seven first-round draft picks and two years with more than one. One of the biggest QB trades in NFL history. And this is the product. 

28. Carolina Panthers (3–7)

Last week’s ranking: No. 25
Last week’s result: bye
This week: vs. Kansas City

I’m really interested to see what Panthers rookie Jonathon Brooks brings to the table. This offense has squeezed a second life out of Chuba Hubbard and Bryce Young looks the best he’s been to this point. The team liked him enough to spend valuable draft capital (No. 46 overall) on a back despite having Hubbard and needing … (checks notes) ... almost everything. 

29. New York Giants (2–8)

Last week’s ranking: No. 30
Last week’s result: bye
This week:vs. Tampa Bay

WTF. Tommy DeVito doesn’t live with his parents anymore? Is he even still Italian? 

30. Tennessee Titans (2–8)

Last week’s ranking: No. 29
Last week’s result: lost to Minnesota, 23–13
This week: at Houston

Will Levis was hurried on half of his snaps on Sunday. I don’t think we’re under any illusion that he’s the long-term answer and certainly he’s earned a place of deep suspicion among the fanbase, but there are some games where he plays at least halfway decent—Levis bested Rodgers for a barely-positive EPA per dropback rating Sunday—yet it feels like the Titans don’t have a shot. 

Bowers's 70 receptions rank second in the NFL behind only Cincinnati's Ja'Marr Chase. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

31. Las Vegas Raiders (2–8)

Last week’s ranking: No. 31
Last week’s result: lost to Miami, 34–19
This week: vs. Denver

Say this about Scott and Norv Turner: They can get the ball to the tight end. Brock Bowers set an NFL record held previously by Mark Bavaro (!!!) for most receptions in a single game by a rookie tight end. After rewatching all of his targets from Sunday I am blown away that nearly all of them were uncontested. I didn’t count a physical defender-in-his-grill snap until the midway point of the fourth quarter. My guess? He’s going to get Gronk treatment—a jam at the line and a devoted defender—from here on out. 

32. Jacksonville Jaguars (2–9)

Last week’s ranking: No. 32
Last week’s result: lost to Detroit, 52–6
This week: bye

We begin and end with the Jaguars. Here’s Albert and I discussing the idea of an in-season firing on this week’s MMQB podcast. I’m not a fan because, ultimately, it does nothing for Trevor Lawrence. Rumors of Belichick being interested in this job are very real, but I am dying to know if the Khan family really wants to pivot from one aging stalwart to another (see: Tom Coughlin to Urban Meyer to Doug Pederson to Belichick).

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