NFL Power Rankings: Straddling the Line Between Seeing and Believing

Two games aren’t enough to completely dispose of preseason expectations, but it’s enough to reexamine what we thought we knew.

Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 2–0 after a big win in Detroit on Sunday. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Week 2 is my favorite week of Power Rankings because it’s often the most ridiculous. It’s like polling eight people at a Dave Matthews Band concert in New Jersey and using that information to project the results of the presidential election (eat your heart out, Nate Silver). But we also have no other choice. Sure, we could go into this exercise with a stick up our rear ends and contend that teams like the Saints and Buccaneers and Seahawks and Chargers and Vikings are not really good enough to be considered end-of-year contenders. We would then be writing Power Rankings that did not reflect what we know so far and would not be all that exciting to read.

So with that said, this is our best effort at balancing what we’ve seen against what we think we know. It’s also a suitable way in which to shed selectively aggressive fan bases off my back like pond water from a duck.  

1. Kansas City Chiefs (2–0)

Last week’s ranking: No. 1
Last week’s result: beat Cincinnati, 26–25
This week: at Atlanta

I’m not sure how many other folks out there saw Kansas City backed up against a fourth-and-16 and still thought there was no way they were losing the game. And while top Chiefs conspiracy theorists will say that is because of some relationship between top pharmaceutical companies, the NFL and a deeply secretive Hollywood talent agency, I just think it’s because good teams put themselves in a position where they can maximize the chances of something good happening. Posting up a receiver on a 2024 seventh-round draft pick is … a good plan. 

2. Buffalo Bills (2–0)

Last week’s ranking: No. 4
Last week’s result: beat Miami, 31–10
This week: vs. Jacksonville

The Lions get knocked down one spot and the Bills move into No. 2 after a convincing win over the Dolphins on short rest, this after fending off the Cardinals in Week 1. That win looks better in hindsight after Arizona blew the door off the rehabbing Rams. A balanced effort and just two Josh Allen carries in a divisional win is about as perfect as the Bills can get. By the way, I don’t want this fan base to forget who never doubted them this offseason—not once—and who did not take the bait on any glimmering toys in that division. 

3. Detroit Lions (1–1)

Last week’s ranking: No. 2
Last week’s result: lost to Tampa Bay, 20–16
This week: at Arizona

I thought the Lions would lose one of their first two games because, for one, they were never going to go undefeated, and, two, seem to me to be the kind of club that needs to take an elbow to the nose before they get to full strength. This was a wake-up call for the defense but was also a notice that they do not own a monopoly on toughness. The Buccaneers came into Detroit with attitude.  

4. Houston Texans (2–0)

Last week’s ranking: No. 10
Last week’s result: beat Chicago, 19–13
This week: at Minnesota

Twelve pressures and five sacks is impressive. Seeing DeMeco Ryans strategically change his stripes and blitz Caleb Williams on nearly half of his dropbacks was also impressive. The Texans coach showed he has plenty of clubs in the bag we haven’t seen yet. This is critical to the kind of evolution Houston needed to take place in 2024 to go from good to great. 

5. Green Bay Packers (1–1)

Last week’s ranking: No. 6
Last week’s result: beat Indianapolis, 16–10
This week: at Tennessee

The Packers had one of the most impressive wins of the season so far, staving off 0–2 without Jordan Love by building a bully of a run game and an offense tailormade for Malik Willis. I’ve always thought Willis was a fun player and he showed some touch on a critical, much needed touchdown pass. But the champagne goes to Matt LaFleur and his staff, who smeared this offense in all sorts of window dressing that disguised what we already knew: the plan was to run it down the pipe. 

6. San Francisco 49ers (1–1)

Last week’s ranking: No. 3
Last week’s result: lost to Minnesota, 23–17
This week: at Los Angeles Rams

Week 1 wasn’t an aberration but it showed exactly what the 49ers can and can’t get away with when it comes to making something of the 2024 roster. Injury-riddled, rusty and showing a bit of its age, the 49ers struggled against a Vikings team that went right for the jugular and disallowed Kyle Shanahan’s team from simply putting them through the machinery. Getting hit with the greatest full-field knockout punch of the season from Sam Darnold to Justin Jefferson doesn’t hurt, but expect Minnesota to encourage others to come right at the defending NFC champions. 

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2–0)

Last week’s ranking: No. 13
Last week’s result: beat Detroit, 20–16
This week: vs. Denver

Baker Mayfield pulled one of the greatest dead-leg fakes en route to setting up a critical touchdown run in this game. But let’s give credit where it’s due: this wasn’t just a Baker/Godwin/Evans game. Down ballot, this Buccaneers team is pretty loaded and showcases a team that has been quietly hitting its mid and late-round picks to supplant a strong roster with a Patriots-like middle class. 

8. New Orleans Saints (2–0)

Last week’s ranking: No. 21
Last week’s result: beat Dallas, 44–19
This week: vs. Philadelphia

You can read some lengthier thoughts on the Saints here but I love everything about this team and hope there’s a way they can sustain the energy. First-half deep shots are connecting. Their skill position players are getting the ball with room to run. But it’s also the little stuff: Alvin Kamara getting right up in Micah Parsons’s face on an early-game third down before this contest got out of hand. That’s what will continue to set the Saints apart in their quest to keep pace with the Buccaneers. 

9. Minnesota Vikings (2–0)

Last week’s ranking: No. 18
Last week’s result: beat San Francisco, 23–17
This week: vs. Houston

Though it’s early, the Vikings have a legitimate top-10 passing offense and a defense that has allowed fewer points than only the Steelers, which played the Denver Broncos, and the Chargers, which has played both the Raiders and the Panthers. Brian Flores is carving a pathway back to a head coaching chair so far with a pair of memorable performances against great offensive minds. 

10. Philadelphia Eagles (1–1)

Last week’s ranking: No. 5
Last week’s result: lost to Atlanta, 22–21
This week: at New Orleans

What a waste of a good opportunity. Fun Nick Sirianni was back! Cocky, lovable-only-in-our-town players were back! Sirianni sprinted down the sideline to meet C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who deserves an Oscar for convincing the officiating crew that he didn’t rip off his helmet after an incredible fourth down stop (he absolutely ripped off his helmet after an incredible fourth down stop). Then, Sirianni had some distinct flare while declining a penalty when Atlanta purposefully jumped offsides for the tush-push. While not from Philly, I pride myself in sensing when a Philadelphia moment is brewing. The Eagles appeared to have taken these broken wings and learned to fly again.  

And then the Falcons marched down the field in the blink of an eye, threw a go-ahead touchdown and picked off Jalen Hurts on a possible answer. The Eagles were booed off the field. 

Embattled Nick Sirianni is back. 

11. Pittsburgh Steelers (2–0)

Last week’s ranking: No. 11
Last week’s result: beat Denver, 13–6
This week: vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Only Tua Tagovailoa, Kyler Murray and Bo Nix have run more play action to start the season than Justin Fields, but I still feel like there’s a long way the Steelers offense can go to meet Fields where he’s most effective. Granted I have long ago developed into a Fields apologist, this team has dynamic potential in the running game and melding everything for a more harmonious relationship between passing and running concepts will come with time. The benefits of allowing Fields to ride the waves far outweighs those of Russell Wilson possibly taking the air out of a two-game winning streak. 

12. Los Angeles Chargers (2–0)

Last week’s ranking: No. 15
Last week’s result: beat Carolina, 26–3
This week: at Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh and Kansas City are next, two teams that should help us answer the major question attached to this team: who are these guys? J.K. Dobbins has been the heartwarming story of this season, but so has the fact that the Chargers are carving teams up with one of the lowest run block win rates in the NFL (and, much to the chagrin of previous Chargers regimes, the best run stop win rate in the NFL). 

13. Cincinnati Bengals (0–2)

Last week’s ranking: No. 14
Last week’s result: lost to Kansas City, 26–25
This week: vs. Washington

Two straight 0–2 teams here. Explain it? O.K. This is a declaration to buy low on the Bengals who, yes, are 0–2 but Washington and Carolina are next. The Bengals took the Chiefs to the final moments of the game and there is still that matter of the phantom fumble that has still been left unresolved. All of this while Ja’Marr Chase is still not at all being utilized at his full potential. Joe Burrow is O.K. The Bengals will be, too. 

14. Baltimore Ravens (0–2)

Last week’s ranking: No. 7
Last week’s result: lost to Las Vegas, 26–23
This week: at Dallas

I am a little less certain of the Ravens turning the season around than Cincinnati despite very similar circumstances and, one could argue, a more concerning total team loss sustained by the Bengals. With a stung Dallas team, Buffalo and Cincinnati coming up next, we could either see John Harbaugh in the thick of the playoff hunt or looking at a top-10 pick for the first time since 2016. 

15. Arizona Cardinals (1–1)

Last week’s ranking: No. 24
Last week’s result: beat Los Angeles Rams, 41–10
This week: vs. Detroit

I am happier by the day that I had Arizona contending for a playoff spot in my preseason All 272 predictions. My one lament is that I didn’t have them edging out another team for an actual top-seven spot. This team has transformed into a young and dynamic roster full of underrated players and a mature Kyler Murray who looks night and day compared to a season ago. Murray’s play-extending ability is now more of a honed weapon, and no QB has taken more time to throw in the NFL this season; stunning considering QBs like Anthony Richardson and the seemingly glacial pace at which he gets to releasing the ball. 

16. New York Jets (1–1)

Last week’s ranking: No. 16
Last week’s result: beat Tennessee, 24–17
This week: vs. New England

While depth is not yet a concern, we are starting to see why the Jets wanted to trade for Haason Reddick in the first place. These next two weeks will absolutely demand a strong pass rush in order to avoid a killer of a loss to an inferior opponent. The Patriots and Broncos are both teams the Jets should beat and both teams that are suspect to strong edge rushing. Jacoby Brissett is another QB with one of the longest snap-to-throw times in the NFL. Bo Nix is a rookie. With the Vikings, Bills and Steelers on the other end of that mountain, the Jets need to stack wins when possible.  

17. Dallas Cowboys (1–1)

Last week’s ranking: No. 9
Last week’s result: lost to New Orleans, 44–19
This week: vs. Baltimore

The Dallas Cowboys continued a tradition from last year in which they shove around a vulnerable opponent early in the season and then leave themselves totally exposed to an uppercut knockout. Could the Cowboys have simply been exposed given that Klint Kubiak knew Mike Zimmer intimately and designed an offense to beat it? Or, was their win over a severely wounded Cleveland team the ultimate red herring to start the season? 

18. Atlanta Falcons (1–1)

Last week’s ranking: No. 20
Last week’s result: beat Philadelphia, 22–21
This week: vs. Kansas City

Kirk Cousins said after the game that he’s not all the way back. That was clear a week ago but less so this week against the Eagles, when Cousins looked spry on his way down the field to deliver a game-winning touchdown. The Falcons survived the prospect of a terrifying 0–2 hole and can now begin the climb to deflate red hot starts from both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints. 

19. Seattle Seahawks (2–0)

Last week’s ranking: No. 25
Last week’s result: beat New England, 23–20
This week: vs. Miami

The Patriots are looking more and more like a semi-quality opponent, so I don’t put this win in the same category as the Week 1 banana peel slipper against Denver. Geno Smith toward the end of this game was looking better than ever and the possibilities for this receiving corps between Jaxon Smith-Njigba and D.K. Metcalf is intriguing. The pair, according to NFL research, became the first Seahawks tandem to have 10-plus catches and 100-plus yards apiece in one game. My prediction? That won’t be an isolated achievement this year. 

20. Chicago Bears (1–1)

Last week’s ranking: No. 19
Last week’s result: lost to Houston, 19–13
This week: at Indianapolis

You can watch Caleb Williams in the pocket and see that momentary bit of hesitation just after he pats the ball which can make all the difference between a released ball and a sack. Dealing with DeMeco Ryans, I would guess, takes that hesitation right out of Williams from here on out. I still think his movement skills are next-level and it's a matter of time before Williams puts it all together. 

21. Miami Dolphins (1–1)

Last week’s ranking: No. 12
Last week’s result: lost to Buffalo, 31–10
This week: at Seattle

Tyler Huntley ends up as Miami’s backup option/competition for Skylar Thompson. But I wonder if the Dolphins would entertain swinging a deal for a pigeonholed backup like Trey Lance or Bryce Young at some point. Mike McDaniel and Young would be a fascinating combination. Mike White is on the Bills’ practice squad, Desmond Ridder, Austin Reed and Bailey Zappe are also on practice squads and I wonder what they would look like in a Mike McDaniel offense. 

22. Indianapolis Colts (0–2)

Last week’s ranking: No. 17
Last week’s result: lost to Green Bay, 16–10
This week: vs. Chicago

Anthony Richardson is going to have some big swing-and-miss games and he can make up for it on the ground. Against Green Bay, he threw three picks and only rushed for 37 yards. This is one of those games that the Colts have to live with as Richardson’s rawness gets ironed out. 

23. Los Angeles Rams (0–2)

Last week’s ranking: No. 8
Last week’s result: lost to Arizona, 41–10
This week: vs. San Francisco

We always knew that this was a season that, despite Los Angeles’s infusion of younger talent, hinged dramatically on the health of a handful of players. Cooper Kupp? Out. Puka Nacua? Out. Jonah Jackson? Out. Last year gave us a glimmer of hope that the bones of this Super Bowl team, with a little help, could have one last ride. That feels unlikely now after the Rams were hammered by the division-rival Cardinals. 

24. Cleveland Browns (1–1)

Last week’s ranking: No. 22
Last week’s result: beat Jacksonville, 18–13
This week: vs. New York Giants

The Browns survived by virtue of catching an absolutely dazed Jaguars team that handed Cleveland chance after chance to win the game. The Browns, even with their opponent having just two timeouts with less than two minutes remaining, still handed Jacksonville the ball back with a not-insignificant amount of time to attempt a game-winning touchdown. Still, this was a necessary bit of survival and a much-needed mistake-free game from Deshaun Watson, who was not spectacular but did extend a handful of plays to generate positive gains. I wouldn’t imagine this team is even relatively at ease, but better off than it would have been with a loss. 

25. Jacksonville Jaguars (0–2)

Last week’s ranking: No. 23
Last week’s result: lost to Cleveland, 18–13
This week: at Buffalo

The possibility that Jacksonville is sitting at 0–4 is very real. Houston and Buffalo are next, both on the road and both better than the teams that beat Jacksonville over the first two weeks of the season. Though it’s a week-to-week league, I don’t think it’s overstating it to call this situation one to monitor. There are a handful of times this happens in the NFL, where we become enamored with a small collection of “big name” players and assume the rest of the roster is up to the same caliber. That may very well be the case for Jacksonville, which has struggled in the margins. 

26. Washington Commanders (1–1)

Last week’s ranking: No. 27
Last week’s result: beat New York Giants, 21–18
This week: at Cincinnati

There’s nothing quite like watching a seven field goal game. But in all seriousness, Jayden Daniels was really good from the pocket when the game was in its most critical moments. The Commanders did not need a touchdown at the end of the game, they needed a field goal and Daniels let it fly with a quick release and connected on a pass to Noah Brown that made it happen. 

27. New England Patriots (1–1)

Last week’s ranking: No. 26
Last week’s result: lost to Seattle, 23–20
This week: at New York Jets

A compliment for the Patriots above anything we could have said from Sunday against the Seahawks: This Thursday against the Jets is a toss-up in my mind. If New England gets the run game in gear, Aaron Rodgers is going to have a serious test in his first introduction to the storied divisional rivalry. 

28. Las Vegas Raiders (1–1)

Last week’s ranking: No. 31
Last week’s result: beat Baltimore, 26–23
This week: vs. Carolina

Antonio Pierce got more aggressive and the Raiders played loose. Not a coincidence that their strengths matched up well against Baltimore’s weaknesses. Gardner Minshew, not kidding, is a quarterback that teams don’t love to see, especially when he gets hot. Does this change my opinion on Las Vegas long term? Not particularly. But was I blown away when Minshew still hit Brock Bowers on a throwback screen across the field despite a totally muddied backfield simply because of how big and rangy Bowers is? You bet. 

29. New York Giants (0–2)

Last week’s ranking: No. 29
Last week’s result: lost to Washington, 21–18
This week: at Cleveland

Oddly, mostly positives for the Giants on this one. I think the injury to the kicker is such a freak occurrence, even if he came into the game on the injury report. I also think Daniel Jones played well enough to stave off a conversation about a QB change for a week. I also think Malik Nabers handled a high volume of targets really well. If the Giants have a kicker, they’re 1–1 and we’re talking about the No. 20–22 team in this week’s power rankings without batting an eye. This Sunday in Cleveland becomes absolute must-win territory against the best pass rush the Giants have faced so far.  

30. Tennessee Titans (0–2)

Last week’s ranking: No. 28
Last week’s result: lost to New York Jets, 24–17
This week: vs. Green Bay

It doesn’t get better than a head coach asking his quarterback: “Hey … what the f— are you doing?” And then proceeding to call a decision “dumb,” adding that the quarterback is “grown up and he knows better.” I can’t tell if this is beautiful, refreshing honesty or what, but I am here for what is quickly becoming the ultimate buddy cop movie. The Titans are absolutely better than 0–2 and had leads on two superior opponents in each of the last two weeks. If the Will Levis wild outcomes scale tips in Tenneseee’s favor, watch out. 

31. Denver Broncos (0–2)

Last week’s ranking: No. 30
Last week’s result: lost to Pittsburgh, 13–6
This week: at Tampa Bay

Looking out at the schedule ahead for Denver, it’s worth asking when their first win is going to come. I remember many people linking Sean Payton to the Chargers job the year that the team decided to retain Brandon Staley for one more season. And, I wonder how different life would have been for him had the Chargers moved on early. Is this roster one good draft away from competing? Or, is it maybe two years away, which would be toward the end of Payton’s gargantuan contract?

32. Carolina Panthers (0–2)

Last week’s ranking: No. 32
Last week’s result: lost to Los Angeles Chargers, 26–3
This week: at Las Vegas

Sitting Bryce Young feels like the beginning of the end for the former No. 1 overall pick in Carolina. But I am incredibly confident that Young will have a promising career elsewhere once he gets outside the confines of Carolina and has a chance to breathe for a season, hopefully with a team owned by someone who has not operated a clinic on how to destroy a quarterback. Sam Darnold. Geno Smith. Baker Mayfield and, soon, Young.