Analytics Don't Lie: Pierce and the Raiders Defense

The Las Vegas Raiders' new head coach, Antonio Pierce, took over the Las Vegas Raiders when they had a decent defense, but analytics prove he made them elite.

Under former head coach Josh McDaniels, the Raiders started the season with a dreadful 3-5 record. With interim head coach Antonio Pierce, the Raiders orchestrated a more hope-filled record of 5-4, with three crucial victories against divisional opponents. A contributing factor to the success under Antonio Piece came in the form of substantial defensive improvements on the field.

There are many factors to be evaluated when examining the success of a defensive unit in the NFL. Three stand-out factors of the many game-impacting statistics include recorded sacks, forced turnovers, and opponent 3rd down efficiency.

In weeks 1-8, under the leadership of McDaniels, the Raiders struggled tremendously in all three of the categories of defensive play.

In the season's first eight games, the Raiders recorded 16 sacks for a loss of 93 yards. During this period, the Raiders held an average of 2 sacks per game.

© Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

With the appointment of Antonio Pierce to head coach, the Raiders mustered up better success in recorded sacks for a significant loss in yards. In weeks 9-17, the Raiders recorded 30 sacks for a loss of 197 yards. In these weeks, the Raiders averaged 3.33 recorded sacks a game.

Along with the struggle to produce sacks, the Raiders defensive woes continued with an ever-present struggle to create turnovers. In weeks 1-9 under McDaniels, the Raiders produced only six interceptions and recovered two fumbles.

The Raiders discovered new success in weeks 9-17 under Pierce, in which the team produced seven interceptions and recovered seven fumbles. This discovery revealed a significant increase in turnover production by the Raiders defensive unit.

In addition to examining the number of recorded sacks and turnovers, it is also essential to analyze opponents' effectiveness on 3rd down. During the McDaniels regime, in weeks 1-8, the Raider's opponent's 3rd down efficiency was 47-104, resulting in an opponent 3rd down percentage of 45.2 percent.

During weeks 9-17, under the leadership of Antonio Pierce, the Raiders developed consistency and success in their defensive play, including the limiting of opponents 3rd down success. Under Pierce, the opponent's 3rd down efficiency was 47-123, resulting in an opponent 3rd down percentage of 38.21 percent.

The Raiders struggled to maintain defensive production under the McDaniels regime in weeks 1-8. An analysis of critical categories crucial to defensive success makes it clear that the Raiders struggled to produce sacks and turnovers and limit opponents' efficiency on 3rd down.

The Raiders significantly improved their defensive play, with Antonio Pierce replacing McDaniels at the helm. Despite a seemingly small difference in specific critical categories of defensive success, in weeks 9-17, the Raiders demonstrated the ability to produce more sacks and turnovers and consistently limit opponents' effectiveness on 3rd down.

Antonio Pierce has now been named the head coach for the 2023-2024 NFL season and will have an opportunity to put this continued success on display. 

From February 27 to March 4, 2024, the NFL Scouting Combine will be held at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Ind.

The NFL Draft will be held in Detroit, Mich., on April 25-27, 2024. The Las Vegas Raiders currently hold the No. 13 overall pick.

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