Analytics Don't Lie: Pierce & the Rule of Five

The Las Vegas Raiders' new coach, Antonio Pierce, took over the Las Vegas Raiders, and the analytics don't lie when you look at the rule of five before and after AP.

A critical statistical battle in the NFL comes from the rule of five.

The rule of five is a statistical battle around sacks and turnovers. In applying this rule, if the Raiders were to give up only one turnover and force four, then they are plus four. The goal is to achieve a plus-five ratio every game. On average, teams that accomplish the rule of five win 91 percent of their NFL games.

Under CoachJosh McDaniels, the Raiders struggled significantly in this key statistical battle.

During weeks 1-8 of the 2023 regular season, the Raiders produced a dismal turnover ratio of 16:8, meaning they lost 16 and forced 8. The Raider's average turnover ratio per game during the first eight weeks was 2:1.

The Raiders' failure to win this statistical battle resulted in a ghastly turnover differential of -8.

The struggle by the Raiders to protect the ball and force turnovers almost certainly contributed to their failure to win games.

Despite the woeful performance by the Raiders in weeks 1-8, the Raiders found hope and success under interim head coach Antonio Pierce.

When examining this statistical battle with Pierce at the head coaching position, the Raiders were substantially more successful in weeks 9-17.

The analytics don't like when it comes to Antonio Pierce and the rule of five / © Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

In weeks 9-17, the Raiders touted a turnover ratio of 8:14. In these weeks, the Raider's average turnover ratio per game was 0.89:1.56.

In this newly found success by the Raiders, the turnover differential during weeks 9-17 was substantially more successful at +6.

There is an astronomical difference in this statistical battle under McDaniels and Pierce. In weeks 1-8, the Raiders failed to win the battle of turnovers. In weeks 9-17, the Raiders won and dominated the battle.

Antonio Pierce has now been named the head coach for the 2023-2024 NFL season and will have an opportunity to put this continued success on display. 

From February 27 to March 4, 2024, the NFL Scouting Combine will be held at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Ind.

The NFL Draft will be held in Detroit, Mich., on April 25-27, 2024. The Las Vegas Raiders currently hold the No. 13 overall pick.

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