Raiders Might Have a Blueprint For Drafting a QB

The Las Vegas Raiders will likely draft a quarterback in 2025. One renowned NFL writer might have found the key to success.

Nov 9, 2024; Oxford, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi Rebels quarterback Jaxson Dart (2) reacts during the second half against the Georgia Bulldogs at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images / Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

NFL writer Rick Gosselin is perhaps one of the most prodigious sportswriters of our time. He is a Pro Football Hall of Fame selection committee member and an award-winning writer. He is also credited as one of the great minds behind the mock draft, and some consider him the perfector of the mock.

This past spring, amid all of the quarterback buzz with a stacked 2024 NFL Draft class, Gosselin wrote a piece for us entitled "Does the NFL Know What A QB Looks Like?" In the piece, the former Dallas Morning News columnist outlined the correlations he found in the quarterbacks that translated the best to the NFL.

"There is no real prototype that gives a quarterback his best chance for success in the NFL," Gosselin wrote. "But in the 20 years I spent researching NFL drafts for The Dallas Morning News in the 1990 and 2000 decades, there is one statistic I checked first and foremost on the resumes of all college quarterbacks. I didn’t care about Heisman Trophies, All-America honors, starting records or the height, weight and speed of a prospect. I wanted to know how many passes he threw at the college level. The more passes he has thrown, the better prepared he is for the NFL. So I always looked for the guys who threw 1,300 balls in college. They are usually the three- and four-year starters. They have seen all the coverages and blitzes that college defenses have to offer. Those are the guys that I viewed with the best chance for success at the next level.

" ... There are, of course, exceptions. Kenny Pickett threw 1,674 college passes at Pitt and became a first-round draft pick of the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2022. He posted a 14-10 record in his two NFL seasons with as many interceptions (13) as touchdowns (13) and was traded to the New York Jets in March. Brady Quinn threw 1,602 passes at Notre Dame. He became a first-round pick of the Cleveland Browns in 2007 but lasted only four NFL seasons, losing 16 of his 20 starts with more interceptions (17) than touchdowns (12).

"On the flipside, Kurt Warner threw only 352 career passes at Northern Iowa. He is now in the Hall of Fame with his two NFL MVP awards and Super Bowl ring. Tom Brady threw only 711 passes at Michigan. He threw more passes than that in the last of his 23 seasons in the NFL -- 733 for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 45 years of age. He won seven Super Bowls, three MVP awards and will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer when he becomes eligible in 2028."

Gosselin also noted the success rate of quarterbacks who were not thrown into the fire right away.

"Another tip for the drafters -- it wouldn’t hurt to sit your rookie quarterback for a season or two instead of rushing him onto the field before he is ready for the speed and complexity of the game," he wrote. "Playing a quarterback too soon can be damaging to his psyche. Especially if the team isn’t capable of protecting him."

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