REPORT: How Tie Breakers Could Impact Raiders' Draft Plans

The Las Vegas Raiders are expected to finish the season with one of the top picks in the NFL Draft, if not the first overall pick.

Apr 25, 2024; Detroit, MI, USA; A Las Vegas Raiders logo at the 2024 NFL Draft at Campus Martius Park and Hart Plaza. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Las Vegas Raiders are in the running for the first overall pick in the upcoming NFL Draft this offseason, but they have stiff competition for the pick. Not only do the New York Giants and Raiders have essentially the same record, but they also need a quarterback.

The Giants lost to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 15 to fall to 2-12 on the season. The Raiders head into their Monday night matchup against the Atlanta Falcons on a nine-game losing streak and are underdogs at home.

Assuming the Raiders’ losing streak continues, they would again have the same record as the Giants. If the season ended with that being the case, the Giants would be awarded the first overall pick, according to Daniel Chavkin of The Sporting News.

“While some teams are fighting for playoff positioning at the top of the NFL standings, two others are fighting for the bottom — and for the top of the No. 1 pick race,” Chavkin  said. “The Giants and Raiders share the worst record in the NFL at 2-11 heading into Week 15, which means they are the favorites to earn the top pick in the 2025 NFL draft.

“A team's strength of schedule is determined by the combined record of its opponents, and the team with the lower strength of schedule earns the higher pick,” Chavkin said. “If two teams are tied with the same strength of schedule, here is the order of tiebreakers the NFL would use until it breaks the tie. But it is unlikely the league would need to go deep in its tiebreaker list:

1. Head-to-head
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games (minimum of four)
3. Strength of victory in all games
4. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games
5. Best net points in all games
6. Best net touchdowns in all games
7. Coin toss."

Chavkin broke down the Raiders' and Giants' strength of schedules. The Giants would technically edge out the Raiders for the first pick.

“If the season ended before Week 15, the Giants would own the No. 1 pick over the Raiders, as they have a lower strength of schedule — .527 compared to Las Vegas' .574,"
Chavkin said. "In the four remaining weeks of the NFL season, though, the Raiders play teams with a combined .423 winning percentage, while the Giants play teams with a winning percentage of .574.

"If both the Giants and the Raiders were to lose all of their remaining games, then based on the current records of every team in the NFL, Las Vegas would jump New York at the top of the draft. As a result, the next four weeks are crucial to deciding the NFL draft order."

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