The Raiders' Quarterbacks Deserve a Chance

The Las Vegas Raiders quarterback room was recently given the the label of "weakest" in the league. Just how true is that?

Jan 7, 2024; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Aidan O'Connell (4) throws against the Denver Broncos during the fourth quarter at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports / Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

In a recent list from Pro Football Focus, the Las Vegas Raiders quarterback room -- headlined by second-year quarterback Aidan O'Connell and journeyman offseason acquisition Gardner Minshew -- was ranked as the "weakest" in the league.

PFF's John Kosko wrote that the Raiders did "very little" to improve the quarterback situation for the upcoming 2024 season. Kosko wrote, "Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell will compete for the starting job, which doesn't spark much excitement for a fanbase that has yet to see a legit contender in Vegas."

Josh Allen, widely regarded as one of the five (if not three) best quarterbacks in the league, had a rookie season in 2018 comparable to O'Connell's in 2023.

Allen played in 12 games, while O'Connell appeared in 11. Allen made 11 starts to O'Connell's 10. Allen threw 320 times for 2,074 yards, 10 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. O'Connell had 343 pass attempts for 2,218 yards, 12 touchdowns and just seven interceptions. Allen's overall PFF grade was 65.3 -- O'Connell's 65.9.

A deeper dive into the rookie seasons of Allen and O'Connell shows striking parallels.

As a rookie, Allen went 2-3 in starts against teams that would finish with records over .500 (not .500-even). Allen was 0-3 in starts against teams that would play in the playoffs, including division-rival and eventual Super Bowl champion New England. In those three starts against playoff teams, Allen completed 48 of 91 passes for 546 yards and two touchdowns with four interceptions.

O'Connell's rookie season saw a 1-3 record in starts against teams that would finish with records over .500, and a better 1-2 record in starts against playoff teams. Like Allen, O'Connell had to contend with a division-rival and eventual Super Bowl champion -- the Kansas City Chiefs. Unlike Allen, O'Connell played them twice, and won one of the contests. In his three starts against playoff teams, O'Connell completed 56 of 98 pass attempts for 581 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions. All three interceptions came in a single game -- Week 11 at Miami. O'Connell took care of the ball in his other two starts, both against the Chiefs.

Allen was selected seventh overall in the 2018 NFL Draft, after the Buffalo Bills traded up for him. He inherited a team that went 9-7 the year before, clinched a Wildcard spot, and had a second-year head coach in Sean McDermott.

O'Connell was the 136th pick in 2023. He joined a franchise that was 6-11 the previous season and had three head coaches since 2021. Head coach Josh McDaniel was fired after a 3-5 start, replaced by Antonio Pierce. The rookie's second NFL head coach named him the starter moving forward.

Minshew was signed in the offseason to compete for the starting job with O'Connell, though Pierce has made it clear it is O'Connell's job to lose. Minshew has played with Jacksonville, Philadelphia, and Indianapolis. He was the starter for the Colts last season when rookie Anthony Richardson went down with an injury.

The majority of Minshew's playing experience was with Jacksonville, before they drafted Trevor Lawrence first overall in 2021. Since Lawrence was drafted, he has played in 50 games and thrown 58 touchdown passes and 39 interceptions. Minshew has played in 49 games throughout his career, throwing for 59 touchdowns and 24 interceptions.

Lawrence has 22 starts against teams that would make the playoffs (not including the 2023 NFL Playoffs), and a record of 7-15 against those opponents. That is a winning percentage of .318. Minshew has 15 starts against eventual playoff teams, and a 5-10 record -- a .333 winning percentage.

Lawrence has seven more starts against playoff teams than Minshew -- but has 10 more interceptions and only three more touchdowns. Lawrence is on track to potentially receive a new contract that could surpass $50 million per year. Minshew is on his fourth team since he was drafted in 2019.

Allen and Lawrence are better quarterbacks than O'Connell and Minshew. These numbers should not diminish that fact, nor place unrealistic expectations on O'Connell and Minshew.

The two Raiders signal-callers deserve more credit than last place on the league-wide quarterback room rankings, however. O'Connell's rookie season was as good, if not better in some areas, as Allen's. Minshew's numbers aren't so bad for a quarterback who is on his fourth team before turning 30 years old. It does not mean Aidan O'Connell will be a top five NFL quarterback like Josh Allen. It does not mean Gardner Minshew is better than Trevor Lawrence.

What it means is that O'Connell and Minshew deserve a fair chance -- from both the Raiders and the media.

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