Answering Your Raiders Questions: Is Carr Coming Back?

The Las Vegas Raiders are in the midst of answering long-term questions about the franchise, including the return of quarterback Derek Carr.

HENDERSON, Nev.--The Las Vegas Raiders have the most passionate fans in professional sports.

They are ravenous for information on their team, so I endeavor to answer some of your questions and emails each week.

Hondo, your question-and-answer articles are some of the best work in journalism.  Last week you wrote about Derek Carr's future. I noticed one small detail. You didn't say if you thought Derek would be back or not. So I am taking a shot as a first-time emailer that you will tell me what you think, please.  --Dan C. Sana Monica, CA

Thank you, Dan, for the kind words.  First, let's go back and show the email l and my answer from last week that you referenced.

Hondo, there have been two stories that I know of about Derek Carr's future with the Las Vegas Raiders. Do you have any insight from your sources on that? --Thank you, Scott B.

Scott, I do. My answer will be long, but here it goes.

To answer your question, I have to explain a situation from my past. Years ago, a coach told me that a player was NOT returning to his team in the fall. When I reported that, another media member spoke to the player, who assured him I was wrong.

That reporter repeatedly mocked me for months for getting my story wrong. He didn't know that the coach was keeping the player around to improve his GPA so that his poor GPA wouldn't hurt the program when he was dismissed from the team.

That other reporter wasn't wrong in his sourcing; we can all agree that a player is a terrific source. But I had a better one.

I say that because I have not read any other reports, and my report is not repudiation against anyone. Here is what I know.

When I started covering the Raiders three years ago, there were multiple reports that Derek Carr would be thrown away from the Raiders. I researched and spoke with those directly involved, who told me that was not happening, and I reported that, and I was right.

I reported a year before Davante Adams came to the Raiders that he wanted to come here, and the chance of it happening was very viable. I was mocked when I said the day before the trade was announced he was coming, and I was right—the same with Josh McDaniels getting the job.

I do not write that to pat myself on the back, I do it as proof of performance from the sources I have.

Here is what I know. The Raiders will not go into 2023 with a plan of starting a rookie. So those wanting a rookie drafted and starting will not get their way.

The Raiders have not decided to move on from Derek. That said, the Raiders are willing to move on from ANY player on the roster who they feel makes them better.

There are some things to consider with Derek. He has a no-trade clause, and Carr said he would retire before playing for anyone else.

According to one NFL Executive, the feeling around the Raiders and the NFL is that: "There is a thought process that he would not go to just anywhere, but there are a handful of clubs he would consider."

If that sentiment is true or not, we don't know. I didn't ask Derek, and I won't, not during the season when the NFL Playoffs are still out there.

With that said, there is a known sentiment that Coach Josh McDaniels and General Manager Dave Ziegler believe in and love Derek, as I reported when Silver and Black hired McDaniels. The presence of Carr was a big reason he took the job.

So who is better than Derek Carr? A very vocal part of the fan base would say: "Anyone." That is comical and unrealistic for a coach who will get a second season, but one that cannot look like year one.

There are names that multiple NFL Executives have mentioned to me.

Tom Brady is very close to McDaniels, but Brady comes with baggage. I am not talking about his very public divorce. Does he want to play next season? The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have afforded him special treatment. Not one NFL Executive or member of the Raiders organization I spoke to feels he would get the special treatment playing for McDaniels and Ziegler. He missed extensive time in training camp and the season for personal reasons. One of which was attending a wedding. One executive from an NFC team told me: "No way he would have gotten away with that with Bill (Belichick) or Josh." Would Brady come and commit knowing that the Raiders wouldn't allow that? Would McDaniels acquiesce and let him?

Many people feel like the San Francisco 49ers would be in play for Brady, but as one AFC Executive told me: "They have had more than one chance for Tom and haven't wanted him. They got their Mr. Irrelevant becoming relevant, don't see that happening, at all."

Would the Raiders move on from Carr for Brady? If Brady understood, there would be no special treatment, and if he was all in.

Derek has been different this year. His teammates have noticed it as well. He has given maximum effort, but he seems to be easily frustrated. One organization member told me: "I don't know what bothers him, I love him, but it seems obvious that he is not his old self. I love him; I want him here, and I am not rooting for a change." He added: "I can only imagine the constant barrage of negativity gets f****ing old."

If the Raiders could move on to an option that they feel makes them better, while they know there is a substantial market for a Derek Carr that most teams around the NFL love, that would be best for both parties. But, they would let him retire and make that move if it made them better. The cap hit would be insignificant.

One executive said it best: "Raiders fans are sold a bill of goods by their team of Just Win Baby. It is the franchise's fault. Don't blame your fans for being pissed that you’re losing, blame the organization that sells that and doesn't live by it. The team has hardly every had a defense for the kid (Carr) yet it is always his fault."

He added: "Be careful what you wish for. There are guys better than Derek Carr, no question. But that isn't an extensive list, and those guys don't come available all the time. Mark Davis gave Josh McDaniels a mulligan in year one, he won't get that in year two. McDaniels and Ziegler aren't stupid, it is hard but not impossible to get better than Derek, but you can't jump to just please fans, or next year you are done. And there won't be a second chance for Ziegler, or a third chance for McDaniels, and they know that."

So in answering your question, have they made a decision? Based on those in the organization who have given me excellent information, as mentioned earlier, no.

Would they move on? They would move on from anyone if they could get better, and the reality is that the list of who is better is minimal. But that list does exist, so you can't say no, and I do not believe they would.

Would they trade Carr if they could get better? Yes, and there would be a very long list of teams wanting him, and I believe the ransom would be two first-round picks. But, if Carr said no and they felt they could improve, they would let him go. But they don't dislike Carr and aren't in a hurry to do so.

This regime knows Mark Davis was patient in year one. They also know they shouldn't expect the same in year two.

So now that we have looked back at last week let's look ahead.  

Someone close to the situation told me early this morning that the Raiders "Are looking ahead."

The source told me: "They have to move on from Derek if they decide to do it within three days after the Super Bowl. You can't just let him go with no plan. Because his contract is for $33 million next year, and it is guaranteed for injury. I know they are talking now about benching him and not taking any chance with additional injuries."

The source added: "Even if down the road it is decided there is no better option, there is enough doubt in him moving forward that they have to hedge their bet and protect the team by not risking injury."

Finally, the source added: "I am certain they want to move on; I am also not certain that they can get someone better."

I can tell you this. Last week, I knew the Raiders hadn't made a final decision, and I believe they have this week if they can get someone they feel improves them. I also know they are analyzing that list right now.

That is why I asked Coach Josh McDaniels about it today. Here are my question and a follow-up from a colleague and his answer.

Q: As you look at the long-term of the team, Derek's contract, if he's injured, is guaranteed moving forward. So, if you guys continue to play him, is that; 'Hey, we're sticking with him in the future?' Or are those all things that have to be talked about?

Coach McDaniels: "I mean, I think there are a lot of things that are going to go into that bucket once we kind of sort through after tonight. There are other things, too. I mean, we have guys – Divine [Deablo], is that worth playing, not playing coming off IR. The guys who got injured here this week or have some things that are nagging them. I think there are a lot of things that you start to talk about relative to taking care of the people who are dealing with things like that. Injuries or contracts, what have you, I think you've got to consider all that stuff. We just got back in this morning, so we're going through the game. We're going to coach the game and correct all the things that need to be corrected. The reality is, is we haven't had any conversations about those things yet. And as we go through the next 24-to-48 hours, I'm sure we'll sort through some of those things. But we're aware of all those things, too."

Q: Could there be a possibility of you doing that?

Coach McDaniels: "I think there's a possibility that we would do the right thing regardless of the position, just in terms of the team. So, like I said, Chandler [Jones] went down, Denzel [Perryman] went down. Rushing those guys back. Divine [Deablo] is another one. I mean, there are a lot of things that could go into this, so I'm not going to get up here and prognosticate everything at this point. Like I said, we're going to get in here and coach the game and correct that, and then I think in due time make the right decisions, hopefully, to protect those guys who we should protect relative to health, and then also do the right thing for the organization as we go forward."

So, Dan. Do I think Derek is the quarterback in 2023? No. Unless every plan to replace him falls apart, I expect another quarterback to lead the Silver and Black in 2023.

If you have a question you would like us to answer, please send us an email at SpartanNationMail@yahoo.com and put Raiders Q/A in the subject line.

The Raiders return to action next Sunday on New Year's Day, at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas versus the San Francisco 49ers. That game kicks off at 4:05 p.m. EST/1:05 p.m. PST and can be seen on FOX.

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