Rams vs. Saints Preview: Must-Win, Must-See TV?

The Los Angeles Rams have played themselves into a playoff race, making Week 16's edition of Thursday Night Football vs. the New Orleans Saints incredibly important.

Despite the preseason expectations, the litany of injuries, and the disappointing first half of the season, the Los Angeles Rams have made it to meaningful December football. That’s an accomplishment in itself, but no one in the facility is happy to settle.

On Thursday, the Rams will play host to the New Orleans Saints in a prime-time fight with massive playoff implications. Per the New York Times playoff simulator, Los Angeles currently holds (approximately) a 50-percent chance to make the NFC playoffs as a Wild Card team.

A win would boost those odds to about 70 percent with a matchup with the mediocre New York Giants on deck. A loss, however, would spell trouble. In an “any given Sunday” league, it’s never safe to assume, but Week 18 against the San Francisco 49ers – in Santa Clara – does not provide much optimism.

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) drops back to pass against the Los Angeles Rams during the first half at SoFi Stadium / Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The Rams need to go 2-1 to have a chance at mid-January football, and they control their destiny. If Los Angeles finishes 3-0, it will be a playoff team.

Needless to say, operating under the assumption that the 49ers win the final game of their regular season means the Rams cannot afford to fall on Thursday.

The Saints are scrapping for a spot, too. The lowly NFC South offers them a backdoor to the dance. Two divisional games to end the year affords them some breathing room, but a loss to kick off Week 16’s slate would give them about a 25-percent chance.

That’s a lot of stage-setting. As for the actual product, fans can expect to see this one come down to two factors: how well Los Angeles’ defense performs in the red zone, and how hot the offense can stay against an elite defense.

New Orleans currently holds the third-best defense in the league by expected points added per play and success rate. The unit is strong against both the run and pass, posing a legitimate threat to the hot streaks of quarterback Matthew Stafford and running back Kyren Williams.

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The Saints’ offense, however, struggles mightily in the red zone thanks to quarterback Derek Carr’s timid nature. The Rams secondary cannot be trusted to limit explosive plays, especially if receiver Chris Olave is healthy, but if they can make a tackle before a big play hits the end zone, they can give themselves a chance.

Playoff football came early this year – enjoy it.

WHAT: Los Angeles Rams (7-7) vs. New Orleans Saints (7-7)

WHERE: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA (70,240)

WHEN: Thursday, Dec. 21, 2023, 5:15 p.m. (PT)

TELEVISION: Amazon Prime Video

RADIO: ESPNLA 710 AM, Tu Liga 1330 AM

ODDS: Rams -4.5 (+100), -200 Moneyline, Total: 45.5 (o -118/u -110)