Are the Rams playoff contenders? Five questions with Football Outsiders

Analytics site believes the Los Angeles Rams could have bounce back season in 2020.

Vincent Verhei, an assistant editor for Football Outsiders was gracious enough to talk to Sports Illustrated and answer specific questions about the Los Angeles Rams prospects in the upcoming season. 

Football Outsiders is a stat-based web site created by Aaron Schatz dedicated to providing football-specific information on the NFL. The analytics web site just published their annual Football Almanac, which provides a wealth of detailed breakdowns like personnel trends and running success rates on each team in the league.

If you haven’t picked up one up already, it’s recommended reading in order to prepare for the upcoming season. You can find out more information on how to purchase this year’s almanac here.

Verhei wrote this year’s Rams chapter for the almanac.

The following are five questions I asked Verhei after reading over this year’s chapter:

Williams: This year’s Football Outsiders almanac has the Rams at an 8.4-win projection with a 48 percent chance of making the playoffs. This prediction seems more bullish than other analytics publications on the Rams bouncing back from last year’s slide. What’s your reasoning for L.A. being considered a potential playoff team?

Verhei: The biggest reason is that the Rams were a Super Bowl-caliber team in two of the past three years. They were second in our efficiency rankings in both 2017 and 2018 before falling to 12th last year. Our computers see a pattern like that and assume that last year was the anomaly, and they're likely to bounce back to their prior levels. That rebound ends up balancing out with the personnel losses and so the projection puts the Rams about where they were last year. Remember, they were very close to being a playoff team anyway, and probably would have won at least a wild-card berth if they played in the AFC. This year, they get a very soft schedule, getting to play the AFC East and NFC East. That should help them win a wild-card spot even if they don’t win the NFC West.

Williams: According to your report, the Rams were in base defense 34 percent of the time (No. 3 in the NFL) in 2019. And as you note, the Rams’ blitz percentage increased from 20.5 percent in 2018 to 27.7 percent in 2019. The rams were up-and-down defensively last season, which led to a parting of ways from longtime NFL defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. How do you see L.A. changing defensively with the addition of first-year defensive coordinator and Vic Fangio protégé Brandon Staley? Also, what does it mean for frontline players like Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey?

Verhei: A couple of stats about Fangio’s defenses stick out as meaningful for the Rams. One, even though he uses a base 3-4, he tends to get a lot of sacks out of his defensive ends -- Akiem Hicks in Chicago, and Shelby Harris and Derek Wolfe last year in Denver. That could be good news for Michael Brockers and Aaron Donald.

Two, he doesn’t like big blitzes -- his defenses have ranked 25th or lower in blitzes with six pass-rushers or more in each of the past three seasons. (They have been about average in frequency of five-man blitzes.) Three, he really likes nickel formations, ranking in the top ten in use of five-DB sets for three years in a row. He hasn’t used dime formations very much, but that could change in 2020 given the dire state of L.A.’s linebackers.

Williams: The Rams have run 11 personnel (1 RB, 1TE, 3 WRs) the most of any team over the last three seasons during the Sean McVay era. However, as you note, from Week 10 on the Rams more than doubled their use of 12 (1 RB, 2TEs, 2 WRs) or 13 (1 RB, 3TEs, 1WR) personnel formations to 31.6 percent of plays – up from 14.3 percent in the first eight games. With two talented tight ends in Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett at the team’s disposal, do you see the Rams using more two-TE sets this year?

Verhei: I think McVay in his heart wants to use 11 personnel, and that’s why they drafted Van Jefferson in the second round when they had more obvious needs on the offensive line and at linebacker. That said, Higbee’s breakout gives them more flexibility than the Rams have had in the past. You might see them go three-wide all day against a defense like Seattle Seahawks that love to use base personnel, then go with two tight ends against a dime-heavy scheme like the New England Patriots.

Williams: By most QB statistics, Jared Goff regressed in 2019. But with $110 million in guaranteed money left on his deal, Goff isn’t going anywhere. Looking at stats from previous seasons, how does McVay get Goff to play like he did the first two years in his offense?

Verhei: Goff needs better protection. The Rams were 12th or better in pressure rate allowed in both 2017 and 2018, but fell to 22nd last year. That need to prevent pressure is especially true given that Goff has historically suffered a greater drop-off in performance when under pressure than most quarterbacks.

Williams: The Rams averaged 3.7 yards per carry on first down runs last year, No. 28 in the NFL last season. How can the addition of rookie Cam Akers help L.A. improve in that statistic?

Verhei: Akers has a rare combination of size and speed, running a 4.47s 40 at the combine at 212 pounds. That gave him the third-best speed score (40-yard time, adjusted for weight) of any running back at the combine, behind Jonathan Taylor and AJ Dillon. However, he didn’t get a lot of big runs at Florida State, only averaging 4.9 yards per carry; that’s a good number in the NFL, but pretty lousy in the ACC. He figures to make his biggest impact as a rookie in the passing game -- he caught 69 passes in his Seminoles career.