What Recent History Tells Us About C.J. Stroud-Puka Nacua Rookie of the Year Race

Will Los Angeles Rams receiver Puka Nacua or Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud win Offensive Rookie of the Year? There's a recent example that may tell us that answer.

A few weeks ago, Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud seemed like a lock to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year, perhaps in unanimous fashion. 

But between a concussion sidelining Stroud and a late-season push by Los Angeles Rams rookie receiver Puka Nacua, the race appears to at least be open again.

Nacua -- a fifth-round pick out of BYU -- had nine catches for 164 yards and a touchdown in a 30-22 Rams win over the New Orleans Saints on Thursday Night Football. On the season, Nacua now has 96 catches for 1,327 yards and five touchdowns.

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While quarterback Matthew Stafford, receiver Cooper Kupp and defensive tackle Aaron Donald remain the core of the Rams -- along with the excellent coaching of Sean McVay -- there's no question Nacua's addition has helped the Rams to rebound from a disappointing 5-12 season. The Rams are now 8-7, and currently in playoff position in the NFC.

At the same time, the Texans -- a 3-13-1 team a year ago -- are an even more shocking playoff contender this season. Coach DeMeco Ryans, receiver Tank Dell and pass rusher Will Anderson Jr. deserve credit for an 8-6 start, but obviously, Stroud's strong rookie season is the biggest difference for the Texans from a year ago.

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Stroud has tossed 20 touchdowns to five interceptions, racking up 3,631 passing yards and adding three touchdown scampers. It's been a remarkably efficient season for any quarterback, let alone a rookie. 

But Stroud suffered a concussion during a 30-6 loss to the New York Jets in Week 14. He missed a 19-16 win over the Tennessee Titans in Week 15, and has again been ruled out for Week 16 against the Cleveland Browns. 

Quarterback Case Keenum will start in his place again. Right or wrong, you do wonder whether Stroud's case will be hurt if the Texans win two consecutive games without him, although Keenum wasn't particularly impressive against the Titans.

The best way to break down this Rookie of the Year race may be to look back to 2020. Minnesota Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson caught 88 passes for 1,400 yards and seven touchdowns, but still only finished second in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting.

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Had Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow not torn his ACL in November, Jefferson may have finished third. As is, Jefferson lost out to Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, who tossed 20 touchdowns to seven interceptions, while throwing for 3,134 yards.

It can certainly be argued that Jefferson was more dominant from a statistical sense. By the time Nacua wraps up his rookie season, he may have a similar case. 

Ultimately, though, when a star quarterback emerges in their first season, they almost always win the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. 

Assuming Stroud does indeed return during the regular season, the guess here is he'll edge out Nacua. At least that's what recent history leads us to believe.