Is Ravens Star Due for Regression?

One of the Baltimore Ravens' breakout stars could come back down to Earth this season.

Dec 10, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens defensive tackle Justin Madubuike (92) celebrates a sack against the Los Angeles Rams during the first quarter at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jessica Rapfogel-USA TODAY Sports / Jessica Rapfogel-USA TODAY Sports

Out of all the NFL players who had breakout seasons in 2023, few burst onto the scene quite like Baltimore Ravens defensive tackle Justin Madubuike.

The Texas A&M product had some decent production prior to last season, but few predicted he would rack up 13 sacks on the year, the most among defensive tackles. That incredible season landed Madubuike his first career Pro Bowl nod, but more importantly, a hefty four-year, $98 million extension from the Ravens. So not only did he have a great breakout performance, but he picked the perfect time to do so.

After such a strong season, though, there are doubts over Madubuike ever matching that success. According to Anthony DiBona of Pro Football Network, Madubuike is the Ravens' top candidate for regression this season.

"Baltimore Ravens defensive tackle Justin Madubuike bursts onto the scene as an elite pass rusher last season. In his first three NFL seasons, Madubuike totaled just 8.5 sacks. But in 2023 — which was notably a contract year — he recorded 13. It’s fair to wonder if he’ll take a step back after earning amassive payday from the Ravens," DiBona writes.

There are countless cases of players regressing after landing a huge contract, and there will surely be more to come. Obviously, Madubuike regressing so badly that his contract becomes an albatross would be the worst-case scenario for the Ravens, doubly so since they're already tight on cap space.

However, regression can simply mean that he doesn't have as good of a season as last year, which doesn't necessarily equate to a "bad" season. Quite frankly, it's plausible that Madubuike never reaches 13 sacks again. If he can remain in the 8-10 sack range while remaining strong against the run, though, then it would be hard to complain about his production.

So yes, it is possible that Madubuike takes a step back in 2024, even likely. Still, he should be a big part of one of the league's best defenses.

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