Analyst Makes Bold Ravens Playoff Claim

Would an AFC North title give the Baltimore Ravens' best path to the Super Bowl?

Dec 25, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) rushes against the Houston Texans in the second half at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images / Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

The Baltimore Ravens can wrap up their second-straight AFC North title with a win over the Cleveland Browns in Week 18, but that may not necessarily give them their best path to the Super Bowl.

If the Ravens are AFC North champions, then they'll take the No. 3 seed and host the conference's No. 6 seed, which will likely be the Los Angeles Chargers but could also be the Pittsburgh Steelers. If they miss out on the division title, which can happen with a loss and a Steelers win, then they'll be the No. 5 seed and travel to face the No. 4 seed Houston Texans, who they just demolished 31-2 on Christmas Day.

Due to that result, Houston's recent struggles in general and Los Angeles' recent surge, ESPN's Dan Graziano believes Baltimore would actually be better off as a wild card team rather than a division champion.

"Houston is leaking oil right now and could be as vulnerable as any team — at home or on the road — in the wild-card round of the playoffs," Graziano wrote. "A loss next week in Tennessee — which is possible, since the Texans are locked into the No. 4 seed and could rest their starters — and we're looking at a 9-8 AFC South champ coming off three straight losses (and four in its past six). The Texans' only win against a team with a winning record all season came in Week 5 against the Bills. They also are missing two of their top three receivers in Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, and their offense is sputtering.

"The Chargers, meanwhile, just got top running back (and former Raven!) J.K. Dobbins back and are riding some seriously positive vibes into the postseason. Whichever team — Baltimore or Pittsburgh — ends up not winning the division could be getting a really nice first-round consolation prize with a matchup against Houston."

In a vacuum, sure, the Texans look like an easier opponent. The Ravens also defeated the Chargers this season, but that was a far more competitive game than the absolute beatdown they put on the Texans.

In the big picture, though, this argument pretty much falls apart.

First, the Ravens would lose the home-field advantage that has served them so well over the years. Second, if they do beat the Texans, then they'd likely have to go on the road to face the No. 1 seed Kansas City Chiefs in the divisional round. Kansas City has won five of six games against Baltimore with Lamar Jackson at quarterback, including last year's AFC Championship Game, and are looking to become the first team to three-peat in the Super Bowl era. It's likely that the Ravens will have to go through the Chiefs at some point, but avoiding them as long as possible might be critical to a deep playoff run.

Then again, saying that one team would prefer to play another is definitely more of a fan and media thing. If one were to ask the Ravens for their opinions, they'd likely have the same thoughts no matter who's in front of them.

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