ESPN Predicts Ravens Ceiling - And Floor

The Baltimore Ravens appear to be one of the NFL's top teams once again.

Jan 20, 2024; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) runs the ball to score a touchdown against Houston Texans defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins (98) during the fourth quarter of a 2024 AFC divisional round game at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports / Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

With training camp now complete, the Baltimore Ravens are officially in the final stretch before the regular season. As a result, new record predictions for Baltimore, and every NFL team for that matter, are coming out every single day.

The thing is, predicting records is far from easy. There's so many variables to account for that even when most are certain of where they'll end up, there's still a chance for the season to take a wild turn.

To help mitigate that issue, ESPN used its Football Power Index (FPI) to predict each team's ceiling and floor for the upcoming season, with the difference usually being around five games.

Unsurprisingly, Baltimore ended up as one of the highest-rated teams with a ceiling of 13-4 and a floor of 8-9. ESPN also listed each team's biggest X-factor, and Baltimore's is, you guessed it, the new-look offensive line.

"The Ravens decided to go younger on the offensive line, letting guards Kevin Zeitler and John Simpson sign elsewhere and trading right tackle Morgan Moses to the Jets," ESPN's Jamison Hensley writes. "The three new up-front starters -- Baltimore has yet to officially name them -- will have a major impact, especially with their pass protection. When Lamar Jackson has been sacked four or more times in his career, Baltimore is 8-9 (.470). When Jackson is sacked three or fewer times, the Ravens are 50-10 (.833)."

It's a very simple equation really. If Jackson stays healthy and upright, the Ravens win. If he doesn't, they lose.

Baltimore fans saw this exact scenario play out in 2021 and 2022. Jackson missed the last five games of each season, and the Ravens' offense cratered without him. They finished the 2021 season 8-9 after losing their last six games, and while they made the playoffs with a 10-7 record in 2022, it was clear they weren't winning without their star quarterback.

Compare that to last season, when Jackson stayed fully healthy, led the Ravens to a league-best 13-4 record and won his second MVP award. He's simply a game-changer when he's on the field, but of course, he can't do his job effectively if the big men up front don't hold up their end of the bargain.

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