The 4 Numbers That Could Dictate The Ravens vs Saints On Sunday

A week ago we suggested that the numbers were telling us the Ravens were going to embrace 11 personnel like never before in the Lamar Jackson era and activate the QB’s legs early and use Derrick Henry to run 20 times or so under center alone in a high-scoring win over the Colts.

I’m not sure we’ll be that prophetic every week, but we’ll certainly try.

After spending a week breaking down the Ravens and Saints all week here and at “The Daily Flock,” there are certain metrics and trends that just stand out more than others. And especially with the Ravens injury report appearing so daunting, the approach to this game will be imperative and the margins are a lot thinner than they appeared six days ago and they’d better not try to get too cute in rookie head coach Jesse Minter’s home debut.

These are the numbers that will tell the story of this Week 2 meeting:

27

That’s how many times Lions feature back Jahmyr Gibbs ran under center against the Saints Week 1, a cool 50% more than anyone else in the NFL. And it’s a number the Ravens should aspire to beat today, perhaps not just with Derrick Henry, at age 32, but with Lamar Jackson and even Justice Hill getting a look in some of those formations too (and I would have said Zay Flowers, too, but he is among the many who will miss this game).

The Ravens had serious pass protection issues last week – especially interior – and if left tackle Ronnie Stanley is hampered by a toe problem, this could become a desperate situation. Under center runs help out their suspect guard/center situation. If guard John Simson also doesn’t play, I’m truly going to be screaming to run the damn ball.

40

That’s how many times Saints QB Tyler Shough drops back per game in his 10 starts. Minter wants to take away splash plays above all else and the Saints are not afraid to chuck the ball all over the yard in search of them. If the Ravens are down their two best pass rushers – we know All-Pro defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike (neck surgery) is out; top edge rusher Trey Hendrickson (finger) could be too – then all the more reason to expect the Saints to be challenging downfield.

Yes, the secondary is the strength of the Ravens’ roster, but without sufficient pressure any defensive back could be in trouble. Could the Saints script a scenario where Shough drops 45 times and a third of those targets go to standout play maker Chris Olave? The Saints had a +4 explosive-play differential last week, tied for best in NFL, a key metric.

40

That’s how many snaps Ravens “Joker’’ Durham Smythe played last week, and we suspect they need to surpass that this week to win. The powerful blocking tight end does some of what all-Pro fullback Pat Ricard used to do, but also had a snap as a wide receiver in Week 1 and a bunch as a slot receiver and a handful in the backfield and his responsibilities were many and varied in this offense that borrows heavily from Broncos head coach Sean Payton (who explained why The Joker matters so much to us this spring).

The Ravens young tight ends are not offering much of anything in pass protection and last week Smythe and an extra tackle were on the field together for seven snaps. I could see that reaching double digits Sunday.

65.4

That’s what Daniel Jones’s passer rating was last week when the Ravens were in dime personnel (six defensive backs). While Shough has a 129 career rating against dime and just 75 against nickel, we suspect Minter leans into dime again. Getting as many of his talented defensive backs on the field at once makes a lot of sense, especially when he is short on coverage linebackers.

Minter was in dime nearly twice as much as any team last week – nearly 45% of the snaps. The Colts ran 23 plays for just 97 yards against it – 4.2/play(!) – and the Saints are certainly going to be more prolific than that but winning in dime is a Minter Mantra and how they perform in this coverage could dictate the game.

Subscribe To "The Daily Flock" For Elite Ravens Content And Coverage

Add us as a preferred source on Google