Haskins Sophomore Surge?

Trying to find reasonable comparisons for Dwayne Haskins to shoot for in year number two for the Washington Redskins

Make no mistake, the Redskins' season starts and ends with Dwayne Haskins.

When the team selected the Ohio State Quarterback at 15th overall in the 2019 draft, the success of Haskins, and the future of the organization, became intertwined.

Heading into April, the Redskins were faced with a very rare opportunity, to alter the direction of the franchise as they deemed fit. For the third time since the inception of the modern NFL (1970), the team had the second overall pick. A slot typically reserved for selecting franchise quarterbacks.

As we know now, the team decided to double-down on Haskins and bypass the likes of promising prospects such as Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa.

Now it’s time for Haskins to deliver. But what is a realistic expectation for him? What would be considered a success? Since 2015, 16 quarterbacks were selected in the first round of the draft, with varying success. Today we are going to take a deep dive into quarterbacks during their sophomore seasons, and determine what constitutes a sophomore slump, or a sophomore surge.

Reflecting on the Quarterbacks

As stated above, since the 2015 season, 16 quarterbacks were selected in the NFL draft with varying degrees of success. We have seen the peak of the mountain-top (Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes) and complete wash-outs (Blake Bortles and Paxton Lynch).

But for the sake of this exercise, we are going to determine reasonable expectations for the Redskins’ second-year QB.

It wouldn’t be fair to compare Haskins to Mahomes and Jackson, who were already NFL MVPs at the conclusion of their sophomore seasons.

Conversely, I didn’t want to compare him to Josh Rosen who was traded and rode the bench behind a 37 year-old journeyman in Miami.

So I wanted to target three quarterbacks that Redskins fans should aspire Haskins to become. They were Carson Wentz, Deshaun Watson and Baker Mayfield. In my eyes, three signal-callers who meet the criteria of “franchise quarterbacks” and worth building around. Let’s take a look at their growth from year one and two, and determine reasonable benchmarks for Haskins’ second season.

Carson Wentz

Carson Wentz was the second selection in the 2016 NFL Draft. He was given the keys to the castle in Philadelphia, an established program with recent success.

In his rookie season, he took the very first snap for an Eagles offense crafted by Head Coach Doug Pederson and Offensive Coordinator Frank Reich (currently the head coach of the Indianapolis Colts). A situation many rookie quarterbacks would envy.

The Eagles didn’t hold anything back in terms of restrictions, for Wentz tossed the rock 607 times his rookie year. A staggering average of 38 times per game. The team finished the season 7-9, and he put up a rather pedestrian ratio of 16 touchdowns to 11 interceptions.

For his sophomore season, the Eagles scaled back Wentz’s pass attempts and asked him to be more efficient. That year, his average dropped to 27 pass attempts per game, but his “shots” were more lethal-- his passing yards per attempt (YPA) went up by 1.3. 

Year 1

Season    Pass Completions   Pass Attempts  Completion Percentage    Passing Yards

2016         379                           607                  62,4%                                    3,782

Passing Yards Per Attempt  Passing TDS      INTs

6.2                                         16                        14

Year 2 

Season      Pass Completions  Pass Attempts  Completion Percentage     Passing Yards

2017           265                         440                    60.2%                                  3296

Passing Yards Per Attempt              Passing TDS                INTs

7.5                                                      33                                 7

The information above is somewhat deceiving, since the quarterback missed three contests in 2017, his sophomore season. Wentz had the team at 11-2, and was a viable candidate for NFL MVP that year, before an ACL injury stripped him of his final three games. The Eagles won the Super Bowl that year, and Wentz’s 33 TDS largely contributed to that.

What the Redskins should take away from Wentz is that quarterbacks thrive when the situation is right for them. The team should not rely heavily on Haskins’ arm early in the season, especially with unproven weapons. The name of the game is efficiency, and Haskins would benefit from calculated shots as opposed to a reliance on his arm. Take what the defense is giving you, and rely on the play-action tendencies of coordinator Scott Turner.

Deshaun Watson

Deshaun Watson is an interesting case-study. When he was selected 12th overall in the 2017 draft, there were questions of whether his game would translate to the NFL level. In fact, he was the third quarterback selected that year behind Mitchell Trubisky and Patrick Mahomes.

Like Wentz, he was given the keys to drive from week one, but as most rookie QBs he started slow out of the gate. In his first two games, Watson threw one touchdown pass and he was sacked seven times. There were whispers that the Texans’ offensive line would ruin him. Then week three happened and Watson absolutely caught on fire.

Over the next four weeks Watson went on an absolute torrid pace and threw for 16 touchdowns. He was the talk of the league before an unfortunate knee injury occurred and shelved him for the last eleven games of the season. Regardless, the Texans saw something in their young star and knew they had their quarterback of the future.

Year - 1

Season       Pass Completions   Pass Attempts   Completion Percentage    Passing Yards

2017           126                           206                   61.8                                     1699 

Passing Yards Per Attempt        Passing TDS                 INTs

8.3                                               19                                 8 

Year - 2

Season       Pass Completions   Pass Attempts   Completion Percentage   Passing Yards 

2018            345                           505                      68.3%                               4165

Passing Yards Per Attempt           Passing TDS                             INTs 

8.2                                                     26                                          9

In 2018, Watson returned healthy and solidified his stance as a franchise QB. He was selected to his first Pro Bowl and led the Texans to an AFC South Crown with a 11-5 record. He increased his completion percentage by 6.5% and maintained a healthy 8.2 YPA while passing it 30 times a game.

Watson produced dividends and tangible success his second year in the NFL. Something the Redskins hope Haskins will eventually display. He is now the unquestioned face of the franchise of the Texans, and will likely reset the market when his contract is up after the 2021 season.

Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield is an interesting subject to reflect on, because of the three quarterbacks touched upon in the article, he’s the only one who regressed. But if you dive deeper, it’s no surprise.

Mayfield has had many challenges thrown at him, several of which have striking similarities to the Redskins’ quarterback.

For example, the head coach he had his rookie season, Hue Jackson, didn’t believe he was ready and elected to start the season with a veteran quarterback, Tyrod Taylor. After eight games, Jackson was fired mid-season and an interim head coach had to take his place (Greg Williams). Post Jackson era, Mayfield began to show promise. Sound familiar?

Also similar to Haskins, Mayfield has had a different offensive coordinator each of his first two seasons. What should have been an easy transition from Freddie Kitchens the OC, to Kitchens the Head Coach, didn’t sit too well with Mayfield. 

He struggled under OC Todd Monken and threw 21 interceptions his sophomore season. Kitchens and Monken are no longer with the team. And the Browns are now on their third head coach and offensive coordinator in three years.

Year -1 

Season       Pass Completions       Pass Attempts      Completion Percentage Passing Yards

2018          310                               486                        63.8 %                               3725

Passing Yards Per Attempt          Passing TDS           INTs

7.7                                                  27                           14

Year - 2

Season          Pass Completions  Pass Attempts Completion Percentage Passing Yards 

2019               317                           534                    59.4%                               3827

Passing Yards Per Attempt               Passing TDS                       INTs

7.2                                                        22                                      21

The lesson learned is that the Redskins need to provide stability for their rookie passer and foster his growth. As seen in the Mayfield example, a promising quarterback’s growth has severely been hampered due to instability off the field. A situation Redskins fans know all too well.

It appears that Redskins Owner Dan Snyder is “all-in” on head coach Ron Rivera, and has allowed autonomy in how he runs his program. Will it stay that way? That’s the major question in D.C. Haskins’ success is largely dependent on stability, something that has been elusive in the nation’s capital.

How does this apply to Haskins?

As seen from the situations above, the Redskins need to fully foster Haskins and put him in an optimal position to succeed. That means allowing him to start every game, creating stability with his coaches, and tailoring an offense that matches his skillset as well as the team.

Considering the inexperience of the wide receiving corps, it’s fair to think that the Redskins will rely heavily on the run game this season to protect Haskins. Which isn’t a knock, and could actually increase his efficiency as seen in the case with Wentz. The Eagles quarterback threw the ball on-average ten fewer times per game from year one to two, but his yards per attempt (YPA) increased and so did his touchdowns.

What appears to be a sweet spot for quarterbacks is a YPA of about 7.5 yards and 30 passing attempts per (PA) game and a completion percentage of 63%. All measures Haskins failed to achieve his rookie season. He averaged 6.7 YPA and 27.6 PA and 58.6%.

If Haskins can extrapolate these averages over a 16 game season, the quarterback will solidify himself as someone to build around. Here’s a chart with the aforementioned criteria projected into 2020. 

Year - 1 

Season     Pass Completions        Pass Attempts    Completion Percentage Passing Yards

2019        119                                 203                     58.6%                                1365 

Passing Yards Per Attempt           Passing TDS                    INTs

6.7                                                  7                                       7

Year - 2*

Season   Pass Completions  Pass Attempts   Completion Percentage      Passing Yards 

2020*      302*                        480*                    63%*                                     3,600*

Passing Yards Per Attempt          Passing TDS                     INTs 

7.5*                                                27                                     12*

With 3,600 passing yards, Haskins would rank 16th in the league, three yards behind coincidentally, Viking Quarterback Kirk Cousins. And if his 27 touchdown passes come to fruition (a number determined by the average of Wentz, Watson and Mayfield during their second year), he would be just in front of Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan at 8th in the league.

27 touchdowns and 12 interceptions would be a solid baseline for the sophomore QB. It would solidify his stance as a starting quarterback, and bring a sense of optimism as he develops in future years.

Let’s hope that this abbreviated off-season hasn’t hampered his development too much, and the team provides the stability and support he needs to thrive. 

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George Carmi is an editor/contributing writer to FullPressCoverage.com or @FPC_Redskins. He is a native of the DC metropolitan area and is an avid fan of DC Sports. A former journalism major at the University of Maryland, his focus is now in public education. His earliest memories consist of Darrell Green, "The Posse" and Super Bowl XXVI. Follow him on twitter @Gcarmi21