Derek Carr Listed Among Darkhorse Preseason MVP Candidates

Read why one national publication thinks that New Orleans QB Derek Carr could push for NFL MVP in 2023.

The NFL Most Valuable Player award is mostly a popularity contest almost automatically handed out to a quarterback each year. Quarterbacks have won the last 10 and 15 of the last 16 awards. Vikings RB Adrian Peterson was the last non-QB to get the award in 2012. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes won MVP honors last season.

According to Caesars Sportsbook and Casino, Mahomes is the betting favorite to take the award again this year. He tops the eight leading candidates of quarterbacks Josh Allen (Bills), Joe Burrow (Bengals), Jalen Hurts (Eagles), Justin Herbert (Chargers), Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars), and Aaron Rodgers (Jets).

Shocking. 

In an article for NFL.com on June 14, writer Adam Schein lists nine darkhorse MVP candidates to watch outside of the usual names. New Saints QB Derek Carr was listed among his top players.

Here's what Schein had to say about Carr's preseason candidacy:

As an Associated Press voter, I've already placed a vote for Carr as MVP -- back in 2016, when his season tragically ended with a broken leg on Christmas Eve, thus dooming a promising Raiders campaign. Since then, the Raiders have relocated to Las Vegas and Carr has relocated to New Orleans. And yet, I can imagine myself going back to the same well six months from now and placing another MVP vote for the criminally underrated quarterback.

Regular readers already know how bullish I am on the 2023 Saints. Back in March, I picked New Orleans as my Cinderella team for 2023. In a BOLD PREDICTIONS piece last month, I posited that the Saints could earn the NFC's No. 1 seed. This franchise has missed the playoffs in both seasons since Drew Brees' retirement; Carr re-raises the ceiling in the Big Easy. After being unceremoniously dumped by the Raiders in February, Carr has to be a man on a mission. With a franchise that believes in him -- SEE: four-year, $150 million contract -- Carr is poised to rampage through a lackluster NFC South and quite possibly do major postseason damage in a top-heavy conference.

A healthy Michael Thomas would obviously be huge. Regardless, I see Carr making sweet music with second-year stud Chris Olave. And more crucially, in terms of overall team success -- which is a big driver of MVP candidacy -- Carr will be supported by a legit defense for the first time in his career. In Carr's nine seasons with the Raiders, the D never finished higher than 20th in points allowed, ranking dead last twice. The Saints, on the other hand, have ranked in the top 10 in scoring and total defense in each of the past three seasons.

The Saints are going places in 2023 with Carr steering the ship.

Jun 13, 2023; New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) during passing drills during minicamp at the Ochsner Sports Performance Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Schein listed Carr with Cowboys QB Dak Prescott, Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa, Browns QB Deshaun Watson, Vikings WR Justin Jefferson, Rams QB Matthew Stafford, Seahawks QB Geno Smith, Lions QB Jared Goff, and 49ers QB Sam Darnold. 

All but Darnold make some sense, albeit with longshot odds. Among the nine darkhorse candidates, Carr's +4000 betting odds are tied with Goff and just behind Tagovailoa, Prescott, and Smith.

The 32-year-old Carr comes to New Orleans after nine seasons with the Raiders. He's missed only three regular season starts in a career of 64.6% completion percentage, 35,222 yards, 217 touchdowns, and 99 interceptions. Carr has thrown for over 4,000 yards four times, including a career-high 4,804 in 2021.

This is the best supporting cast Carr has ever played with, and is arguably the best weaponry among any of the darkhorse MVP candidates. New Orleans added RB Jamaal Williams and TE Foster Moreau while bringing in RB Kendre Miller and WR A.T. Perry through the draft. They'll join stars like RB Alvin Kamara, WRs Chris Olave and Michael Thomas, and up-and-comers WR Rashid Shaheed and TE Juwan Johnson. 

Jun 13, 2023; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) catches a pass from quarterback Derek Carr (4) during minicamp at the Ochsner Sports Performance Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY

No New Orleans player has ever won the MVP. It's still unfathomable that Drew Brees didn't get it after a record-shattering 5,476 passing yards in 2011. Brees broke Dan Marino's 30-year-old NFL yardage record, set a new mark for pass completions, and his 46 touchdowns were the fourth most in a season at the time. 

Ditto for WR Michael Thomas, who broke an 18-year old mark with an NFL-record 149 receptions in 2019. Thomas and Brees were both awarded the NFL Offensive Player of the Year honors in those seasons, an award Brees also won in 2008.

Even with a terrific season, Derek Carr will probably not be seriously considered for the NFL MVP. However, the Saints expect him to be the answer at quarterback they haven't had since Brees retired and vault them back into one of the top offenses in the NFL.