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Alvin Kamara's Market Value, Pt. 2: Will the Running Backs' Market affect Kamara?

The current state of the running back market is in decline. Let's examine if the falloff for running backs will have any affect on Alvin Kamara going forward with the Saints.

Kyle T. Mosley

In February, I analyzed Alvin Kamara's market value in the NFL.  The current state of the running backs market is in decline. Let's examine if the falloff for running backs will have any affect on Alvin Kamara going forward with the Saints.

Should Kamara pressure the Saints for a contract extension in the current depressed market for running backs? A better question is if the team can afford not to offer Kamara a deal and lose an important piece to their offensive attack?

Saints Running Back Alvin Kamara at Rockets NBA Game
Feb 9, 2020; Houston, Texas, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara watches a game between the Houston Rockets and the Utah Jazz at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Kamara will have to deal with the current reality for a running back.  It's growing with apathy and on the decline.  Today's market value of running backs is not a premium for NFL teams. GMs and owners have devalued the running back position. Top tier running backs Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys) and Melvin Gordon (Chargers) were allowed to be holdouts in 2019. Only Elliott’s 41-day protest was effective and forced the Cowboys to bring a quick resolution.  Both sides came to terms and Elliott was offered a six-year, $90M contract extension. Meanwhile, Los Angeles Chargers’ running back, Melvin Gordon, held out for 64 days.  Gordon's protest did not persuade the Chargers and act kindly as the Cowboys did for Elliott. Instead, Gordon lost $3.2 M in salary and fines before returning to the team mid-season.

NEW SIGNS FROM NFL TEAMS

These two examples of NFL running backs' holdouts signifies a shift in the position’s importance. Yesterday, the Los Angeles Rams released Todd Gurley after five seasons with the club. Gurley would have earn millions if he remained with the Rams this season. For the Rams, it no longer was a matter that Gurley was their former first-round pick in 2015, 10th overall, and the 2015 AP OROY, 2017 AP OPOY.  Neither did it matter whether he was an NFL MVP candidate, 2x All-Pro, and 3x Pro Bowl player; the team wanted a change. The recent lack of game-time availability, low production, a chronic knee problem, including his high compensation were factors too glaring for the Rams to ignore.   

Atlanta Falcons Running Back Todd Gurley
Falcons Running Back, Todd Gurley, Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Today's NFL may be cold and indifferent to running backs, but oddly enough, Todd Gurley still drew interest.  Gurley located a new home this morning. The Atlanta Falcons signed Gurley to a one-year deal. Last week, Atlanta released former starter RB Devonta Freeman. Freeman’s injury struggles the past few seasons created the need for a consistent runner. The puzzling thing about Gurley’s signing is the fact he also has been plagued with injuries.

KAMARA'S BEST ADVOCATE 

There have been two running backs that received positive responses from their respective teams. First, the Tennessee Titans placed a franchise tag on RB Derrick Henry.  His tag is projected to be worth $12.36M.  Next, the Los Angeles Chargers offered RB Austin Ekeler a contract extension at 4 years and $24.5M. Ekeler’s contract may be where New Orleans would start their negotiations with Kamara.  Kamara may have another starting point in mind.  Kamara once stated that Ezekiel Elliott’s contract “set the bar” for other running backs.

“It was great to see that number and see a guy that has obviously worked hard and deserves it actually get it at a position that usually doesn’t get the recognition it deserves,” Kamara said. “Zeke set a bar, so we’ll see what happens.”   Mackenzie Salmon interview with Alvin Kamara

Saints Running Back Alvin Kamara versus the Vikings
Jan 5, 2020; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs the ball for a touchdown against the Minnesota Vikings during the second quarter of a NFC Wild Card playoff football game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

The former 2017 AP OROY and 3x Pro Bowler may find negotiating problematic this offseason.  The Saints are attempting to organize another Super Bowl contender with little cap space to maneuver.  One advantage for Kamara is his Head Coach, Sean Payton. NFL expert, Mike Detillier told me “Sean Payton wants to keep Kamara.” If Coach Payton wants his player, I am certain the Saints front-office will work to keep Kamara in New Orleans. Sean Payton recognizes Kamara’s importance to the New Orleans offense. It's questionable whether a deal gets done during this free agency period. 

DID EKELER SET THE TONE FOR KAMARA?

Let’s examine Alvin Kamara and Austin Ekeler. Both players are triple threats for their teams - running, receiving, and special teams. Kamara and the Charger’s Ekeler came into the league in 2017. If you compare their statistics, Kamara has the edge. He leads Ekeler in every major category. Kamara has more NFL honors and recognitions than Ekeler. This can be used in his talks with the Saints. I believe the Saints will point to Ekeler’s contract as their starting point.

During a Rapsheet+Friends interview ahead of Super Bowl 54, Kamara discussed his pending contract situation:

“I’ve thought about my situation...there might be something going on.”

I believe Kamara deserves a huge reward for his services. Without Kamara’s outstanding performances and heroics these three seasons, it’s doubtful New Orleans would have been a playoff team.  In my previous Kamara article, I mentioned:

Spotrac calculated Kamara’s current market value at $15.5M/year. If you compare the contract RB Ezekiel Elliott signed with the Dallas Cowboys averaging $15M/year...can the Saints afford him?  

Kamara was not himself and appeared “sluggish” on the field in 2019. Kamara referred to his production in a tweet - “On 1 leg… At 75%..but we back to 100.” Besides his leg injuries, Kamara recorded 797 rushing and 533 passing yards, 81 receptions, and 6 total touchdowns in limited play.

Do you believe Alvin Kamara’s negotiations will become an issue for the Saints this season? Or, can Kamara’s camp and the team work out an acceptable deal without holding out?

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Kyle T. Mosley
KYLE T. MOSLEY