NFL Mock Draft Simulator 3.0: Predicting the Saints' 7-round NFL Draft

This Saints mock draft aims to predict what the team may do this weekend and things kick off with their usual aggressive tendencies.

The NFL Draft is just days away and the New Orleans Saints will be on the clock holding pick No. 29 Thursday night. As Day 1 gets underway, there are sure to be surprises and unexpected moves throughout the evening. Where the Saints go at pick No. 29 feels sure in terms of position as the offensive and defensive lines could use some early attention. But what happens ahead of them could change everything.

This mock draft is meant to be predictive, what we believe the Saints may do this weekend based on their draft trends, familiarity with prospects and prototypes. Each pick will be with usual New Orleans way in mind and will be accompanied by Relative Athletic Scores (learn more about RAS here) for each player, how they fit the position's prototype, any notable connections to the team and an alternative selection based on opinion over prediction. 

This will effectively run like a dueling mock draft to make sure you are exposed to as many names as names as possible with no repeat selections. We will open this predictive mock with an aggressive move that matches the Saints' draft tendencies and allows them to invest their early the way they have every year since 2015: in the trenches.

Round 1 Pick 21 (via LAC) - Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson

Oct 8, 2022; Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts, USA; Clemson Tigers defensive end Myles Murphy (98) rushes against the Boston College Eagles during the second quarter at Alumni Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

Trade details: NO gets 1.21 and 2024 3rd | LAC gets 1.29 and 2024 2nd

This move and pick are right up the Saints' alley. They do carry an unwarranted reputation for trading up specifically for edge rushers in the first round since they have only done it once in recent past back in 2018 for Marcus Davenport. But their love for long pass rushers, first round trench selections and aggressively going after their guy are all easy to identify. And that is why this pick makes so much sense as the Saints' opening selection.

Murphy is 6-foot-4 and 268 pounds, making him the perfect size for the team's prototype (though they would surely love another inch or two taller). Murphy is a disruptive rusher that can help out in the run game and make an immediate impact on the defensive line. He brings with him an impressive 4.58 40-yard dash which should be a factor carrying weighty consideration for the Saints. With several mobile and dual-threat passers set to be on the schedule in 2023, having a guy that can stick his foot in the ground, change direction and chase down a scrambling quarterback is a big boost the defense.

Prototypes: Height, weight, length, athleticism, versatility and run support acumen.

SNN's Thoughts: Myles Murphy Scouting Report

RAS: 9.71

My pick: Stick and pick at 1.29 - Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan

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Round 2 Pick 40 - Cedric Tillman, WR, Tennessee

Sep 10, 2022; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Tennessee Volunteers wide receiver Cedric Tillman (4) reacts after scoring the game winning touchdown against the Pittsburgh Panthers in overtime at Acrisure Stadium. Tennessee won 34-27 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

No big trade here, but a big receiver is the pick. The Saints should have the patience to wait it out from round 1 to round 2 even if they stay and select at 29. So having them stick around at pick 40 does not feel like much of a stretch. The Saints invested all three of their top-100 selections in the 2022 NFL Draft at premier positions by selecting wide receiver Chris Olave and offensive tackle Trevor Penning in the first round and cornerback Alontae Taylor in the second.

Keeping that trend going, an edge rusher at 21 followed up by a big-bodied wide receiver at 40 feels similar. Tillman comes into the NFL at 6-foot-3 and 213 pounds with 4.54 speed and an explosive athletic profile. He matches the team's size prototypes has enormous 10-inch hands and has a unique quality to boot. 

Because of the nature of the Tennessee Volunteers offense, Tillman was asked to make choices when running routes based on the leverage surrendered by opposing defenders. That unique responsibility has now equipped him to be one of the best pre-snap and post-snap wide receivers in this year's class. Option routes are no stranger for the New Orleans offense and Tillman would fit in running them to perfection. He also has previous experience with Saints wide receivers coach Kodi Burns.

Prototypes: Height, weight, length, athleticism, and above-the-shoulders football.

SNN's Thoughts: Saints May Dip Back into the Volunteer Pool in the 2023 Draft

RAS: 8.67

My pick: 2.40 - Steve Avila, OL, TCU

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Round 3 Pick 71 - Jartavius Martin, S, Illinois

Sep 22, 2022; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini defensive back Jartavius Martin (21) is congratulated by teammates after making an interception in the end zone against the Chattanooga Mocs during the first half at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

We highlighted everything you need to know about Martin this week, but his fit is so specific that it is hard to pass up in a predictive circumstance. At 5-foot-11 and 194 pounds he checks the size boxes. He has experience in Illinois' STAR position, which is a hybrid linebacker/nickel safety role that is charged with supporting run defense on early downs and operating in coverage in passing situations. The Saints successfully navigated the same positional transition for C.J. Gardner-Johnson from the Florida Gators' STAR role to their nickel defense.

Martin was also a team captain for the Fighting Illini, is a sound tackler and has shown an ability to take the ball away with his ball skills. Takeaways will undoubtedly be a big focus for the Saints this offseason, particularly interceptions. The Saints pulled in only 7 picks last year, which was the second-lowest total by just one count. Martin had 7 interceptions during his time with Illinois and added 30 passes defensed as well.

Prototypes: Height, weight, length, athleticism, 2022 Team Captain, versatility, slot production and visible confidence on tape.

SNN's Thoughts: Jartavius Martin Scouting Report

RAS: 9.29

My pick: 3.71 -Tyjae Spears, RB, Tulane

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Round 3 Pick 98 (via CLE) - Gervon Dexter, DT, Florida

Florida Gators defensive lineman Gervon Dexter Sr. (9) celebrates his interception that lead to a touchdown in the first half at Steve Spurrier Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, September 10, 2022. [Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun] Ncaa Football Florida Gators Vs Kentucky Wildcats

Trade details: NO gets 3.98 | CLE gets 4.115 and 2024 4th

The Saints are never shy about moving up for their guys and Dexter has "Saints guy" written all over him. 6-foot-5, 310 pounds, remarkable athleticism with raw traits that makes NFL scouts fall in love. He will need some development when it comes to focusing his rush approach, but with his already established connection with Saints defensive line coach Todd Grantham (former Gators defensive coordinator), that should come along pretty easily.

Dexter's connection with Grantham is a solid reason to expect that he will be on the team's radar in this year's draft. But his versatility along the interior, premier athleticism and 4.88 speed are pretty hard to ignore as well. If the Saints want to become a more attacking interior along the defensive line, Dexter is a Day 2 prospect that could help get it done. His experience operating in a rotation is massively helpful as well.

New Orleans would not be in a situation in which they are playing it fast and loose with future draft capital either. Keep in mind that the Saints are currently in line for multiple 2024 compensatory selections. Because of that, they may be more willing to move picks in the fourth through sixth rounds to help them navigate this year's draft.

Prototypes: Size, athleticism, coaching familiarly, versatility and motor.

RAS: 9.53

My pick: 3.98 - Luke Schoonmaker, TE, Michigan (TRADE: 4.115 and 5.146)

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Round 4 Pick 119 (via MIN) - Kendre Miller, RB, TCU

Oct 22, 2022; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs running back Kendre Miller (33) celebrate scoring a touchdown against the Kansas State Wildcats in the fourth quarter at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Trade details: NO gets 4.119 | MIN gets 5.146 and 5.165

Miller was one of the Saints' top-30 visits this offseason. It was tough to pick between him and Georgia running back Kenny McIntosh. Both would be excellent fits with New Orleans. What sells with Miller is what kept McIntosh out of the conversation, athletics testing. Ironic too because Miller was not able to participate in the NFL Scouting Combine nor TCU's Pro Day due to the same right knee injury that kept him out of the Horned Frogs' National Championship matchup against the Georgia Bulldogs. But even without drills and work outs, it is plenty easy to see that Miller packs a lot of athleticism.

Perhaps a favorite note when looking through Miller's time at TCU comes with his consistency at breaking open explosive plays. Dane Brugler of The Athletic laid out in his annual draft guide that Miller accounted for at least one explosive run (20+ yard gain) in 12 games in 2022. That would mean all but two matchups. Miller has an explosive streak in him, he is a willing pass blocker, has shown that he can catch out of the backfield and is a patient and precise runner. 

The Saints need help in the backfield regardless, but with starting running back Alvin Kamara set to face a potential suspension in 2023, it can turn from need to must rather quickly. Miller would help to alleviate that loss with a dynamic back to complement Jamaal Williams and Eno Benjamin in the meanwhile.

Prototypes: Size, athleticism, pass protection, versatility and a lot of tread left on the tires (only 361 career carries).

RAS: N/A

My pick: - Stick and pick at 5.146. Viliami "Junior" Fehoko, DE, San Jose State

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Round 5 Pick 173 (via SF) - Sidy Sow, OL, Eastern Michigan

Mar 5, 2023; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Eastern Michigan offensive lineman Sidy Sow (OL42) during the NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Trade details: NO gets 5.173 | SF gets 7.1257 and 2024 5th

Addressing the offensive line is getting more and more imperative for the Saints in this year's draft. After not diving in early, trading up late to get a prospect they know fits their scheme might become a necessity. Sow is a big guard measuring in at 6-foot-4 and 323 pounds but he moves incredibly well. His 40-time clocked in at 5.07, among some of the fastest times for offensive linemen at the Combine. 

He has a ton of experience at the college level as well notching 55 career starts, is an absolute people-mover in the run game and uses his olympic weight-lifting training to erase pursuing defenders. While there would be a lot of hype around Sow to potential unseat Andrus Peat as the team's starting left guard in 2023, time to completely further before 2024 is no disappointing alternative.

Eastern Michigan is a small school so competition level will be a question mark. But he has been playing the game for a while. Despite being a Canadian-born prospect, he has been playing the game since he was 10 years old and has experience on both sides of the line.

Prototypes: Size, speed, run blocker prowess, and experience.

SNN's Thoughts: Saints Draft Prospects: Offensive Line Easter Eggs

RAS: 9.72

My pick: - 5.173 Bryce Ford-Wheaton, WR, West Virginia

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Round 7 Pick 227 - Mohamoud Diabate, LB, Utah

The Saints lost their versatile and threatening linebacker in Kaden Elliss this offseason after he took off in 2022. Diabate could be the next developmental piece at the second level of the Saints defense. His role would be that of a coverage backer who can blitz the rusher, though early on his special teams acumen will have to seal his spot on the roster.

At 6-foot-3 and 225 pounds, the Utah linebacker definitely has the frame to add more weight, which could go a long way for him. He is a great downhill defender and with a little more size could begin to pack a wallop, endearing him to Saints fans on kick and punt coverage reps. But success in those reps may allow him the opportunity to contribute on defense as well.

Diabate will have the trust of Grantham, who recruited and coached him at Florida before he transferred to the Utes for his final season. During that season, he piled up career highs in tackles for a loss (13.5) and sacks (5). Head coach Dennis Allen's defense is all about versatility and the Auburn, Ala. native brings that quality with him without much question. 

Prototypes: Height, speed, versatility, experience, coaching familiarity, Team Captain and pass rush ability.

RAS: 9.11

My pick: - 2.227 Ben VanSumeren, LB, Michigan State

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Predictive Draft

Pick	Player Name	Player Position	Player School
1.21 (LAC)	Myles Murphy	DE	Clemson
2.40	Cedric Tillman	WR	Tennessee
3.71	Jartavius Martin	S	Illinois
3.98 (CLE)	Gervon Dexter	DT	Florida
4.119 (MIN)	Kendre Miller	RB	TCU
5.173 (SF)	Sidy Sow	OG	Eastern Michigan
7.227	Mohamoud Diabate	LB	Utah

My Draft

Selection	Player Name	Player Position	Player School
1.29	Mazi Smith	DT	Michigan
2.40	Steve Avila	OG	TCU
3.71	Tyjae Spears	RB	Tulane
4.98 (from CLE)	Luke Schoonmaker	TE	Michigan
5.146	Viliami "Junior" Fehoko	DE	San Jose State
5.173 (SF)	Bryce Ford-Wheaton	WR	West Virginia
2.227	Ben VanSumeren	LB	Michigan State

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