Potential Nightmare Scenarios for the Saints in the 2022 NFL Draft
After what feels like an eternity of speculation, the 2022 NFL Draft is finally here. The first round kicks off tonight. Rounds two and three will be tomorrow evening, while rounds 4-7 conclude the event on Saturday.
The New Orleans Saints are currently scheduled to have a total of seven choices. They possess four picks in the top 100, including three in the top-50 and two first round selections.
The Saints come into this draft with glaring needs at wide receiver and tight end. They also lost Pro Bowl LT Terron Armstead in free agency and have major depth questions at running back, linebacker, defensive tackle, and safety.
After a trade with Philadelphia, New Orleans has the 16th and 19th selections in tonight's first round. The Saints News Network has done three full mock drafts.
Saints Mock Draft 1.0 - Bob Rose
Saints Mock Draft 4.0 - Bob Rose
Saints Mock Draft 5.0 - John Hendrix
Draft boards rarely go as planned for NFL teams. The better franchises can adjust on the fly and still come away with good players. Here are three nightmare scenarios that the Saints could face in the opening round of tonight's draft.
SCENARIO #1
New Orleans Trades Both First Rounders to Move Up (especially if for a QB)
Pitt quarterback Kenny Pickett (8) runs with the ball as Virginia defensive tackle Aaron Faumui (94) chases. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
This is the only of the three scenarios that is in the Saints control. It’s also the one that provides the least improvement for the team in 2022.
There are very few players in this year’s draft that look worthy of the assets it would require to trade up. Especially at the quarterback position.
Essentially, that would mean that the Saints will have surrendered at least two first-round picks (2022 and 2023), a second round (2024), and a third-rounder (2022) for one player because of their previous trade with Philadelphia.
This seems a far-fetched scenario, despite some national projections. New Orleans simply has too many other needs to address on a roster capable of a deep playoff push. And to make the move to overdraft a quarterback in an average class at the position is on another level.
It would be an absolute stunner if the Saints made a move like this. Such confounding decisions are usually reserved for the consistent bottom dwellers of the NFL standings.
SCENARIO #2
A Run on Wide Receivers Comes Early
USC receiver Drake London (15) makes a catch over Arizona defensive back Rhedi Short (24). Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY
Even with the return of All-Pro WR Michael Thomas, this is the team’s biggest area of need. Failure to provide a reliable complement to Thomas cost New Orleans dearly when he missed the 2021 season with injury.
There are as many as seven wideouts that could be selected in the first round. Alabama's Jameson Williams and the Ohio State tandem of Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson are expected to be the first three off the board. Drake London of USC could also be in that mix.
This looks to be a fairly deep class of talented wideouts. However, it also looks like a significant drop in talent after Williams, Olave, and Wilson. Most projections have at least one of the three still on the board when New Orleans picks at Number 16. If true, the Saints would be wise to jump on the opportunity to greatly boost their offense.
But what if all three players are selected earlier?
London could be one option if he’s still on the board. He’s a big and physical receiver that the Saints usually prefer, but lacks big-play ability and might have trouble getting separation at the next level.
Georgia's George Pickens, Jahan Dotson of Penn State, Treylon Burks of Arkansas, and North Dakota State's Christian Watson are other first-round possibilities. They’d address an important need, but might be a bit of a reach at 16 or 19.
New Orleans could also go another direction in this scenario. Offensive tackle, best defensive players available, or even a quarterback are viable options with either or both first-round choices.
The Saints could wait to grab a wideout with a later pick, but that would be a huge gamble. Barring another trade, they’d have to wait 30 picks before their second-round selection at Number 49 overall.
SCENARIO #3
The Offensive Tackles Go Quickly
Mississippi State offensive lineman Charles Cross goes through drills during the 2022 NFL Scouting Combine. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Even with the loss of the often-injured Armstead, the Saints should still have a formidable offensive line. Reliable veteran James Hurst is a better fit at guard, but has starting experience at tackle and is a capable replacement.
In both of my mock drafts, I had the Saints selecting a wideout and, reluctantly, a quarterback. However, if a blue-chip prospect like Trevor Penning or Charles Cross are available, they might be too tempting to pass up.
The decision might be made for them.
Ickey Ekwonu of N.C. State, Cross of Mississippi State, Alabama's Evan Neal, and Penning of Northern Iowa are the top-rated tackles. All four might come off the board before Number 16. If they are, the Saints would be reaching at a lesser need with other game-changing talents likely still on the board.
Bernhard Raimann (Central Michigan), Daniel Faalele (Minnesota), and Tyler Smith (Tulsa) headline a group of tackles that could sneak late into the first round or be available on Day 2.
I believe that the Saints made the trade with Philadelphia to pick up an extra first-round pick specifically with a quarterback in mind. Trading up for one would still be foolish.
A first-round quarterback would have the opportunity to develop behind Jameis Winston for at least a year. An important fifth-year option would also be available to the Saints.
Winston, who is under a two-year contract, could still develop into the franchise passer he’s flashed the potential of being. A rookie quarterback would then be a valuable trade commodity in future seasons.
If Winston struggles, then the Saints could move on from him with no financial penalty in 2023 or 2024 and already have a replacement that knows the system in place.
New Orleans desperately needs another quality wideout. If a run on receivers, tackles, or both, happens earlier than expected, then don't be surprised to see them draft a top-rated defender with one first round pick and trade back with the other.
The Saints have rarely panicked in the draft. With General Manager Mickey Loomis and Assistant Jeff Ireland still in place, expect that same poise, even if their perceived draft plans go awry.
