Saints With the Most 'Boom or Bust' Potential in 2023

See which of the returning Saints players have the most upside but also have the biggest concerns entering 2023.

Plenty of attention will be paid to some of the new faces on the New Orleans Saints as they enter the 2023-24 season.

Derek Carr takes over at quarterback, a position where the Saints have started six different players in the 34 games since Drew Brees retired. Jamaal Williams will get plenty of touches at running back, especially with a pending suspension to Alvin Kamara. The defensive line also gets a makeover, as high draft picks Bryan Bresee and Isaiah Foskey join free-agent additions Nate Shepherd and Khalen Saunders up front with star DE Cameron Jordan. 

Don't forget that New Orleans has a ton of returning talent also. Jordan, Kamara, LB Demario Davis, CB Marshon Lattimore, RT Ryan Ramczyk, and S Tyrann Mathieu are among the league's best at their positions. Corners Alontae Taylor and Paulson Adebo, LB Pete Werner, WR Chris Olave, and C Erik McCoy are also viewed as rising young stars.

The Saints are also counting on several other returning players to play key roles. Some were established stars coming off injuries or down years, while others are looking to fulfill high expectations. 

Discounting the incoming rookies and new additions to the team, here are three returning players with the most 'boom or bust' potential for the Saints in 2023.

Trevor Penning, LT 

San Francisco 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa (97) rushes against New Orleans Saints tackle Trevor Penning (70). Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The second of two first-round picks by the Saints in 2022, Penning was expected to take over at LT for the departed Terron Armstead. Instead, he suffered a foot injury in the final preseason game that sidelined him for the first 11 weeks.

Upon his return, Penning served as an extra blocker until getting his first start in the season finale. He showed tremendous power as a run blocker, but was extremely raw in pass protection before suffering another foot injury. 

Boom Potential 

At 6'7" and 321-Lbs., Penning is a mauler with a mean streak reminiscent of former Saints OT Kyle Turley. He's penciled in as the starter at LT, allowing James Hurst to fill in as the sixth lineman. 

Penning will be an immediate influence for the rushing attack. However, he'll be tested by pass rushers early at one of the most critical positions in football. He has the quick feet and athleticism to excel, but will need to develop quickly. 

The best-case scenario is that Penning is the mauler for the running game as expected and that his sheer measurables are enough to provide good pass protection as he develops. New Orleans invested highly in Penning and he'll have the chance to show why immediately. 

Bust Potential 

Two major foot injuries in his first year is obviously a concern. It's only one season, but it would certainly be a disaster if Penning turned out to be an injury-prone player. Injuries or ineffective play would force the Saints to move Hurst, who's better suited at guard, back to tackle and thin out the depth of the entire line.

Already facing a big jump in competition from college at Northern Iowa, some scouts already had concerns with Penning in pass protection. He definitely has the ability, but if he struggles in that capacity it will handcuff the entire offense. 

Marcus Maye, S 

New Orleans Saints safety Marcus Maye (6) strips the ball from Atlanta Falcons quarterback Marcus Mariota (1) as safety Tyrann Mathieu (32) eventually recovers. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Maye was signed as a free agent by New Orleans during the 2022 offseason. He was brought in to replace the free-agent departure of Marcus Williams. 

A second-round pick by the Jets in the 2017 NFL Draft, Maye was coming off a torn Achilles that ended his season in 2021. Still, he had six interceptions and five fumbles forced or recovered over his first four seasons and was considered one of the league's better playmakers at the position. 

Instead, Maye wound up being one of the Saints bigger disappointments of 2022. He missed seven games with injuries, didn't record an interception or tackle for loss, and broke up just two passes. Additionally, Maye faces a probable league suspension for DUI charges stemming from his days with the Jets.

Boom Potential 

Both Maye and Tyrann Mathieu, another free-agent addition last offseason, performed below expectations. While Mathieu played much better at the end of the year, Maye made zero impact for the Saints defense. 

An otherwise outstanding New Orleans pass defense intercepted just 7 passes and caused 14 turnovers in 2022. Both numbers were the second fewest in the NFL. With ball-hawks in the secondary like Lattimore, Taylor, Adebo, Mathieu, and Maye, that number simply needs to go exponentially higher.

This will be the second season for Mathieu and Maye together and in the New Orleans defensive scheme. The best-case scenario would be if both safeties would display the playmaking skills that caused the Saints to sign them last year. Coupled with an outstanding trio of cornerbacks, it would give the team undoubtedly the best secondary in the NFL. 

Bust Potential 

Maye is already facing a probable four-game suspension. That's a bad enough blow for a thin safety spot that would be worsened if Maye's injury woes also continue.

The 30-year-old Maye must also make a bigger impact when he is on the field. New Orleans brought in S/CB Lonnie Johnson and used a fifth-round choice on S Jordan Howden. However, both are better in slot coverage roles, with a cast of unproven players, underachieving veterans, or special teamers behind them.

At their best, Maye and Mathieu are interchangeable safeties who make momentum changing plays. If Maye is out of the lineup or continues to not make an impact, it may also limit what the Saints can do with Mathieu’s versatility. 

Michael Thomas, WR 

New Orleans Saints receiver Michael Thomas (13) catches a pass over Atlanta Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell (24). Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY

Over his first four years, Thomas was the best wideout in football and perhaps it's most consistent offensive weapon. Over those four years, he had 508 receptions for 6.005 yards including postseason. He led the league in receptions twice, including breaking an 18-year NFL record with 149 catches in 2019.

Since 2020, Thomas has appeared in only 10 of a possible 50 contests because of foot and ankle injuries. He again looked dominant to start 2022, catching 16 balls for 171 yards and 3 scores in the first three games. Unfortunately, another injury shelved him for the last 14 outings. 

Boom Potential 

Thomas flashed the potential of a still-dominant receiver in a short stint last year. He's the NFL's most precise route runner, has sure hands, and physically dominates defensive backs. He won't have to do it alone this year either. 

In Derek Carr, Thomas has an extremely accurate intermediate passer, an area where he excels most. The Saints also have other offensive threats like Olave and Rashid Shaheed at wideout, TEs Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau, and a talented backfield to draw defensive attention. 

Don't expect another 140+ catch season from the 30-year-old Thomas, but he's still capable of taking over games if healthy. Additionally, expect an extremely motivated player. Thomas has always played with a chip on his shoulder and now has an incentive-laden one-year deal that he could parlay into another huge contract with a big year.

Bust Potential 

With Thomas out most of 2020 and all of 2021, the Saints passing attack was anemic. The team was slightly more equipped to handle his absence in 2022 with Olave’s presence and the development of Shaheed and Johnson. However, New Orleans still lacked a dominant interior presence. 

If injury issues for Thomas continue, the offense will still suffer. The receiving corps is still thin behind Olave and Shaheed. The perpetually disappointing Tre'Quan Smith, veteran journeymen Bryan Edwards and James Washington, and sixth-round draft choice A.T. Perry are a significant downgrade from what Thomas can do.

Both Olave and Shaheed are wideouts that work better in space. They'll have a lot more of that space to operate if Thomas can stay on the field and is even a fraction of the player that we saw between 2016 and 2019.