Saints Pass Defense vs. Panthers Passing Attack
At 7-8, the New Orleans Saints need to win their final two games and get a little help for their fifth straight playoff appearance. The first of those two games is this afternoon at home against the 5-10 Carolina Panthers.
This is a rematch of a week two contest where the Saints lost 26-7 at Carolina. In that game, New Orleans made Panthers QB Sam Darnold look like the next Joe Montana.
Darnold, the Number 3 selection in the 2018 NFL Draft, threw for 305 yards and 2 touchdowns against a Saints defense powerless to stop him that day.
After some early season stumbles against mediocre quarterbacks like Darnold and Daniel Jones of the Giants, the Saints have relied on their defense to keep them in playoff contention.
New Orleans ranks fourth in points allowed and 12th in total defense, giving up 20 points and 332 yards per game. They are among the league's best against the run for the fourth consecutive year, ranking fifth. They're also among the NFL's best in the red zone and on third downs.
Carolina comes into this game having lost five straight and 10 of their last 12. A promising offensive start for the Panthers deteriorated into one of the worst units in the league. Carolina ranks 28th offensively, averaging only 18.5 points and 306 yards/game.
Another season-ending injury to RB Christian McCaffrey was a huge blow to the Panthers production. His absence not only affected their 19th ranked running game but also robbed the offense of a productive receiver.
The Saints playoff hopes depend on reversing the success that the Panthers had against them through the air in their September meeting.
New Orleans Pass Defense
The Saints rank 17th in pass defense, giving up an average of 237.5 yards/contest. They've allowed four 300-yard passers this season, but two of those were to the worst quarterbacks in the league in Darnold and Jones.
Opposing passers have completed just 60% of their throws against New Orleans coverage. The Saints have surrendered 19 touchdown passes and have 16 interceptions, both among the top marks in the NFL.
Pro Bowl CB Marshon Lattimore is among the finest in the league and has had another outstanding year. Lattimore shadows the opponent's best receiver and has allowed just 55.7% completion percentage when targeted. He leads the team with 3 interceptions and is among the NFL leaders with 19 passes broken up.
Rookie CB Paulson Adebo has been an ideal complement to Lattimore. A physical defender with the fluid athletic ability to match, Adebo has 2 interceptions and five passes broken up. Despite being targeted heavily, he's allowed 61% completion rate when targeted.
Veteran CB Bradley Roby gives the Saints three starting quality corners. Safeties Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and P.J. Williams handle slot duties. Gardner-Johnson, Roby, and Williams have a collective 6 interceptions and 15 passes broken up between them.
Safeties Marcus Williams and Malcolm Jenkins handle deep support. The two have a combined 3 interceptions and 13 passes broken up. Williams, who has outstanding range, was just activated off the Reserve-Covid list on Saturday. He's questionable to be cleared for game time.
The Saints have a terrific trio of athletic linebackers who are effective in coverage and disruptive blitzers. Demario Davis is the defensive leader and one of the league's best all-around players. Davis has 3 sacks, 9 QB hits, 6 pass breakups, and leads the team in tackles for loss and total stops.
Kwon Alexander and rookie Pete Werner are just a notch below Davis in effectiveness. Both linebackers are sideline-to-sideline playmakers who can blanket tight ends or chase down opposing backs.
The Saints have 36 sacks and 96 QB hits for coordinator Dennis Allen's aggressive scheme. They need more interior pressure, but defensive tackles David Onyemata and Shy Tuttle have the ability to cause disruption inside.
New Orleans is also a bit thinner on the edge, with Tanoh Kpassagnon and Payton Turner both on injured reserve. Ends Cam Jordan and Marcus Davenport are a lethal duo for opposing offenses. Carl Granderson is the primary backup and provides quality pass rush on the edge.
Davenport has developed into a nearly unblockable force, whether facing a double-team or single blocker. In just nine games this season, Davenport has 7.5 sacks, 18 pressures, and two forced fumbles.
Eleven-year veteran Jordan has played some of his best football after a slow start. He leads the team with 8 sacks and 28 pressures while forcing two fumbles and batting down four throws. Four of Jordan's sacks have come in the last two games.
Carolina Passing Game
The Panthers have averaged 196 yards/game passing, ranking 29th in the NFL. They've managed just 12 touchdown passes and have thrown 19 interceptions, both next-to-last in the league.
Panthers QB Sam Darnold re-assumed starting duties last week after missing five games. Darnold started the year strong and had three 300-yard outings in the first four weeks. His play has deteriorated since, leaving the team with major offseason issues at the position.
Darnold averages 217 yards/game. However, he’s completed only 58.3% of his passes and has only 7 touchdowns against 11 interceptions. In his fourth year, Darnold continues to crumble when pressured and makes poor decisions with the football.
Veteran QB Cam Newton was brought back when Darnold was hurt. The 32-year-old quickly proved that he’s not the answer to the Panthers quarterback woes. Since his return, Newton has thrown five interceptions and four touchdowns while completing less than 55% of his passes.
Carolina's struggles behind center has wasted the receiving talent the team has. Losing McCaffrey hurts, but the Panthers still have two capable receivers out of the backfield with rookie Chuba Hubbard and Ameer Abdullah.
Fourth-year WR D.J. Moore is one of the NFL's most underrated stars. Moore leads the Panthers with 83 receptions for 1,041 yards and four touchdowns. A precise route runner with deep speed, Moore has four outings of at least 80 yards.
Veteran WR Robby Anderson has been the biggest victim of poor quarterback play. Despite not missing a game, he has just 44 catches for 459 yards, but four scores. Those are his worst numbers since his rookie year of 2016. Like Moore, Anderson has the ability to burn defenses anywhere on the field.
Rookie wideouts Terrace Marshall and Shi Smith have flashed potential, but have also suffered from inconsistent quarterback play. Another promising rookie, TE Tommy Tremble, will miss today's game with injury. Athletic but inconsistent TE Ian Thomas will see most of the reps at tight end.
The Panthers continue to have major problems with pass protection. Carolina quarterbacks have been sacked 43 times this season and are often under heavy duress.
Making matters worse, the Panthers will be down to their third center today because of Covid protocols and LT Cameron Erving is doubtful with a calf injury.
What to Watch
The Saints need to get heavy pressure on Darnold, who typically makes crippling mistakes when hurried. It’s something New Orleans was unable to do in the September meeting between these teams.
The New Orleans secondary must also find an answer for D.J. Moore, who has 27 receptions and has averaged 96 yards with 5 scores in his last five matchups against them. Marshon Lattimore has shadowed Robby Anderson in their last few meetings. If that happens again, Adebo and Roby will be counted on to contain Moore.
New Orleans had a mind-numbing defensive letdown when they faced Carolina in week two. The Saints offense seems incapable of winning a game without help. If New Orleans is to keep playoff hopes alive, their defense will need to shoulder the responsibility of a week 17 win.