Saints Pass Offense vs. Chiefs Pass Defense

The return of quarterback Drew Brees sets up New Orleans to match Kansas City in a potential Week 15 shoot-out between championship contenders.

We expect the New Orleans Saints to have their legendary quarterback back behind center Sunday afternoon. Drew Brees has missed the last four games with a serious rib injury, but the Saints went 3-1 with Taysom Hill at quarterback and a balanced effort on both sides of the ball. 

New Orleans now sits with a 10-3 record but needs one more win to secure the NFC South title. They host the 12-1 Kansas City Chiefs this Sunday and look to rebound from an upset loss to the Eagles on the road last week.

The Saints rank 14th in total offense, averaging 370 yards per outing. They've scored over 30 points six times and average 28.3 points per game, seventh in the league. They are fifth in 3rd down conversions, ninth in red-zone efficiency, and have turned the ball over 14 times, seventh fewest in the NFL. The Saints typically have one of the league's better passing attacks, but they've had just as much success this season on the ground.

Dec 13, 2020; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Taysom Hill (7) passes the ball against the Philadelphia Eagles during the second quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY

Injuries to their receiving corps early in the year and being without Brees for the last month has caused the New Orleans passing game to slip to 21st in the league. That was more about the shift in offensive focus with Taysom Hill at quarterback over four games.

Hill completed 72% of his throws with four touchdown passes and two interceptions while averaging 230 yards passing in those four starts, but the Saints were more concerned about establishing a rushing game and tailoring to Hill’s strengths. This passing attack is a much bigger threat with Drew Brees back in the lineup. They will be without the NFL's best wide receiver, however, with All-Pro Michael Thomas being ruled out the rest of the regular season with an ankle injury.

CHIEFS PASS DEFENSE

Dec 13, 2020; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki (88) makes a catch over Kansas City Chiefs strong safety Tyrann Mathieu (32) during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY

Kansas City's defense ranks 17th in total yards, giving up 359/game, but the Chiefs have allowed just 21.6 points per outing. The Chiefs are last in red-zone defense and 20th on 3rd downs but have forced 20 turnovers, seventh highest in the NFL. They rank 14th against the pass, giving up 231 yards per game through the air. The Chiefs have allowed five 300-Yd passers this season, three of them in the last five games. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 62.4% of their attempts against them, but Kansas City has intercepted 15 passes, third most in the league.

All-Pro safety Tyrann Mathieu leads the Chiefs with 6 interceptions and has allowed 61% completion percentage and just two touchdowns when targeted. Daniel Sorensen is athletically limited at free safety, but is an instinctive player who has 3 interceptions. Second-year S Juan Thornhill (1 interception) adds quality play as a third safety.

Dec 6, 2020; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs strong safety Tyrann Mathieu (L) intercepts a pass intended for Denver Broncos wide receiver Jerry Jeudy (10) during the second half at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY 

The Chiefs have allowed ten players to have at least 80 yards receiving against them, with four outings of over 100 yards. Veteran CB Bashaud Breeland has allowed only 51% completion percentage when targeted and 2 interceptions in nine games. Rookie CB L'Jarius Snead has broken up four passes and allows 61% completion percentage against him without allowing a touchdown pass. Charvarius Ward allows just 58.3 % completion percentage, but has given up 4 touchdown passes. Rashad Fenton has an interception, but 63% completion percentage against him with two scores.

Linebackers Anthony Hitchens, Ben Niemann, and Willie Gay are used more as blitzers than in coverage and have been vulnerable against opposing tight ends in recent weeks. The unit has no interceptions and has broken up just four passes combined. Despite the amount of blitzing they do, the Chiefs have generated little consistent pressure on opposing passers. Kansas City's 24 sacks rank just 20th in the NFL, but they have some disruptive defenders up front.

Dec 13, 2020; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones (95) sacks Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) for a safety during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY

All-Pro DT Chris Jones leads the Chiefs with 6.5 sacks and 37 pressures. Jones can play inside or on the edge, but is one of the NFL's most talented interior defensive players. Pro Bowl DE Frank Clark is an outstanding pass rushing complement to Jones and has 5 sacks with 21 pressures. Tanoh Kpassagnon and former Saint Alex Okafor man the other defensive end spot but have combined for just two sacks, while the Chiefs get little pressure inside from anyone other than Jones.

SAINTS PASS OFFENSE

Oct 12, 2020; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9) throws against the Los Angeles Chargers during the first quarter at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY 

The Saints have allowed 26 sacks this season. However, 13 of those, and five against the Eagles, were in the last four weeks with Taysom Hill holding on to the ball too long and unable to read defenses as quickly as Drew Brees. 

Left tackle Terron Armstead played poorly last week in his first action back after missing two games following a positive COVID test. Expect a better performance this week from Armstead, who teams with RT Ryan Ramczyk to form the league's best tandem of offensive tackles.

A bigger concern for is the recent abysmal performance of LG Andrus Peat, who has been a sieve in pass blocking. Rookie RG Cesar Ruiz has also struggled in that capacity this season, but the Saints will be without guard Nick Easton for this game with a concussion. Center Erik McCoy had his worst outing of the year against Philadelphia but has had a campaign worthy of Pro Bowl consideration.

Nov 1, 2020; Chicago, Illinois, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9) passed to running back Alvin Kamara (41) during the second half against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

Drew Brees leads the NFL with a 73.5% completion percentage, the fourth straight year he’s led the league in that category. The Saints have averaged 265 passing yards in the eight full games that Brees has played, with the quarterback throwing for 18 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions with five outings of at least 280 yards. Brees will jump-start the New Orleans passing attack, but he must do it without All-Pro WR Michael Thomas, who will miss the rest of the regular season with an ankle injury.

Dual-threat RB Alvin Kamara leads the Saints in receiving with 77 catches for 699 yards while catching 4 touchdowns. Kamara is more than just a check-down option or valuable weapon on screens, he threatens defenses from everywhere along the offensive formation. He was sparingly used as a receiver during the four games with Hill behind center, catching only 10 passes for 51 yards during that span.

Oct 25, 2020; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints tight end Jared Cook (87) catches a touchdown over Carolina Panthers free safety Tre Boston (33) during the first quarter at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Tight end Jared Cook leads the team with 6 touchdown receptions and has 28 catches for 350 yards. He hasn't been as productive as a year ago but still provides the team with a mismatch advantage down the field. Rookie TE Adam Trautman (12 receptions, 121 yards) has been a bigger contributor in recent weeks, and veteran TE Josh Hill is a trusted target on short yardage situations.

Without Thomas, veteran Emmanuel Sanders steps back into the role of top wideout. Sanders has 44 receptions for 504 yards and 4 touchdowns with one 100-Yd outing in 11 games. Third-year WR Tre'Quan Smith, who has 4 touchdowns and a career-high 33 catches for 423 yards, will also be counted on to step up. 

All-Pro kick returner Deonte Harris, who had missed the last three games, joins Thomas and rookie WR Marquez Callaway on injured reserve. Having Brees back means that the team will also get back another pass catching target. Taysom Hill has 25 receptions for 304 yards and 7 scores over the last two years.

Oct 12, 2020; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders (17) runs past Los Angeles Chargers linebacker Kyzir White (44) and linebacker Kenneth Murray Jr. (56) during the second half at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Kansas City has scored 30 points or more eight times this season, but has proven to be vulnerable defensively against balanced offenses that don't turn the ball over. Protecting Brees is obviously crucial, even more so than usual. The Saints would like to avoid a high-scoring game if possible. Even without Thomas and Harris, with Brees back behind center, New Orleans has the offensive firepower to match the Chiefs point for point if this showdown turns into just that.