Saints Passing Game Has Opportunities vs. 49ers Pass Defense

Previewing a New Orleans passing game that should be productive against a disruptive 49ers pass defense, but must be consistent and avoid mistakes to pull off an upset.

Bob Rose | Nov 26, 2022

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New Orleans Saints

A 4-7 New Orleans Saints team tries for their first back-to-back wins of 2022 when they travel to play the 6-4 San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.

New Orleans ranks 10th in total offense, averaging 355 yards per outing. The Saints have also killed themselves with self-inflicted miscues. They've turned the ball over 19 times, ranking 30th in the NFL, and are among the league's most penalized offenses.

The Saints take on a 49ers defense that gives up only 284 yards per game, ranking fourth coming into Week 12. Opponents have had slightly more success through the air than on the ground against their top-ranked rush defense. However, that's also often led to mistakes and opens the game up to a fierce 49ers pass rush.

New Orleans will need to establish the run for success, but will certainly need to be effective with their aerial game to pull off the road upset.

Saints Passing Attack

-22.6 points per game (15th)

-237.5 passing yards/game (7th)

-19 touchdowns (5th)

-12 interceptions (31st)

-25 sacks

-40.3% 3rd Down Percentage (18th)

New Orleans Saints quarterback Andy Dalton (14) throws against the Arizona Cardinals. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Twelve-year veteran Andy Dalton is set to make his ninth start for the Saints this season. He's completed 67% of his throws for an average of 227 yards/game with 14 scores and 7 interceptions.

Dalton is typically most effective working a defense underneath, but can still hit deep shots. He's limited athletically, but is able to read defenses and get the ball to his playmakers quickly.

First-round WR Chris Olave is putting together a rookie season on par with the best in franchise history. He leads the Saints with 51 catches for 760 yards, which includes three 100-yard outings. Olave is an outstanding route runner with good running ability after the catch and the burst to blow by defensive backs.

New Orleans Saints receiver Chris Olave (12) against the Arizona Cardinals. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Alvin Kamara is the league's best receiving back. Kamara is second on the team with 43 catches for 385 yards. More than just a check-down option, Kamara can effectively split out wide and run routes like a seasoned wideout.

Third-year TE Juwan Johnson has blossomed into a legitimate offensive threat. Johnson already has a career-high 31 receptions for 349 yards and a team-high five touchdowns. A converted wideout, he has the athleticism to beat linebackers and the physicality to be a handful for safeties.

The return of veteran WR Jarvis Landry after a nearly six game injury absence has helped open up the offense. Landry has 21 receptions for 238 yards, although seven catches and 114 yards of that came in the season opener. Still, his experience and intermediate receiving ability gives Dalton another viable option.

Olave’s numbers are all the more impressive when you consider that Landry has missed significant time and Michael Thomas has been on injured reserve since Week 3. Veteran wideouts Marquez Callaway, Tre’Quan Smith, and Kevin White have been no threat at all. The three have combined for a paltry 34 catches and 496 yards.

One intriguing option for the stretch run is undrafted rookie WR Rashid Shaheed. An explosive threat, Shaheed has seven touches for 155 yards and two long touchdowns in limited action. Veteran RB Mark Ingram and TE Adam Trautman offer additional short-yardage options.

Taysom Hill saw his most snaps of the year (24) in last week's win over the Rams. Most of them were behind center, as the Saints work him more into their weekly game plan. Hill isn't exactly alternating quarterback snaps with Dalton, but his run-pass threat gives opposing defenses a different look to keep them off balance.

Injuries along the offensive line have caused some issues for run blocking and pass protection in the last three weeks. Some of that could be alleviated with the return of LT James Hurst, but C Erik McCoy is still on injured reserve and LG Andrus Peat (triceps) is a game-time decision for Sunday.

Josh Andrews will take McCoy's place at center, while Calvin Throckmorton will play guard if Peat can't go. The Saints hope for continued stability from much-improved RG Cesar Ruiz and RT Ryan Ramczyk.

49ers Pass Defense

-17.3 points per game (4th)

-202.8 passing yards/game (11th)

-9 touchdowns (2nd)

-9 interceptions (8th)

-65.7% completion percentage

-32 sacks/71 QB hits

-42% 3rd Down Percentage (23rd)

San Francisco 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa (97) rushes against Seattle Seahawks offensive tackle Charles Cross (67). Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Fourth-year DE Nick Bosa is having a monstrous season. Bosa has 10.5 sacks, an eye-popping 28 QB hits, and 12 tackles for loss. Capable of wrecking offenses, Bosa is one of the NFL's top defensive linemen.

San Francisco has also gotten a combined 11.5 sacks and 28 QB hits from ends Samson Ebukam, Charles Omenihu, rookie Drake Jackson, and Kerry Hyder. They haven't been as productive at defensive tackle, where Javon Kinlaw and Maurice Hurst are on injured reserve and Arik Armstead will miss this week with a foot injury.

Kevin Givens and Hassan Ridgeway will take most of the interior reps, with one of the 49ers defensive ends sliding to tackle in some passing situations. The 49ers will also bring MLB Fred Warner (2 sacks, 7 pressures) on blitzes to add inside pressure.

Warner, who's also broken up six passes and is excellent in coverage, is one of an outstanding trio of versatile linebackers for San Francisco. Outside linebackers Dre Greenlaw and Azeez Al-Shaair are terrific in space. All three are athletic enough to lock onto opposing backs or tight ends in coverage.

San Francisco 49ers linebacker Fred Warner (54) breaks up a pass to Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Allen Robinson II (1). Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

Outside of Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes, who threw for 423 yards, no other quarterback has thrown for over 255 yards against 49ers coverage. San Francisco typically employs an off-ball scheme, with the goal of making immediate tackles and pressure forcing quarterbacks into poor decisions. The 49ers have allowed eight players to eclipse 90 yards against their secondary.

Fifth-year CB Charvarius Ward is the best cover corner for a position that lost Emmanuel Moseley and Jason Verrett for the year. Ward has an interception, leads the defense with nine throws broken up, and has given up 51% completion percentage when targeted. Deommodore Lenoir is a solid corner, but is rarely left in one-on-one coverage.

49ers safeties Talanoa Hufanga, Jimmie Ward, and Tashaun Gipson are a playmaking trio. Hufanga leads the team with 4 interceptions and has broken up seven throws. Ward will often take on slot duties, while the veteran Gipson typically provides deep support.

What to Expect

Dec 8, 2019; New Orleans Saints receiver Tre'Quan Smith (10) gets away from San Francisco 49ers defenders. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

Points have been hard-earned against the 49ers in 2022. They've held eight of their ten opponents under 20 points. Few teams have been able to run the ball against the top-ranked San Francisco run defense, but the Saints must establish balance for any chance at success.

New Orleans protection must hold up when they do throw, but look for Dalton to get rid of the ball quickly. Kamara will have a tough matchup against Warner and the 49ers linebackers, but we should see him heavily involved as a pass catcher. He caught 7 passes for 83 yards and a score in a 2020 matchup against Warner and Greenlaw.

Dec 8, 2019; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) and wide receiver Michael Thomas (13) reaches for a pass against the San Francisco 49ers. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY

When the 49ers play man coverage, they'll likely try to match up their best cover man, Charvarius Ward, on Chris Olave whenever possible. Olave should still make plays, but it's crucial that another New Orleans receiver has some production. Landry or Juwan Johnson seem the most likely candidates, but some plays from Shaheed, Callaway, or Smith would be a great benefit.

The Saints should be able to move the ball through the air, but they'll need to do so consistently. Dalton must make good decisions under pressure, find the open man decisively, and above all avoid mistakes. Doing so could spur New Orleans to a road upset and keep them in NFC South contention.

Saints Passing Attack

49ers Pass Defense

What to Expect

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