Saints Need to Convert More Critical Plays With Passing Attack at Colts

Despite gaudy statistics the last two weeks, the Saints passing game hasn't made a significant impact in 2023. This will likely need to change to pull out a road win at Indianapolis.

The New Orleans Saints return to action for the first time since last Thursday when they travel to face the 3-4 Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. New Orleans, also 3-4, has lost four of their last five contests. Most of that has been because of an offense that has been a major disappointment so far.

The Saints average 326 yards per game in total offense, ranking 17th. Their 19 points per outing comes in at just 21st. They've been awful on third downs (26th) and even worse in the red zone (28th) while failing to score over 20 points five times this season. 

Game plans have lacked imagination and coaches have shown zero ability to make in-game adjustments. However, the offensive players must also do a better job at executing their assignments. 

Hosting New Orleans is a 22nd ranked Indianapolis defense that surrenders 351 yards per game, but is 30th in points allowed at 27.3 per contest. The Colts are eighth on third downs, but only 23rd in red zone percentage. Both of their last two opponents have scored more than 35 points. 

New Orleans has thrown 105 passes in their last two games. They'd rather operate with much better balance, but here's how their passing game matches up against the Colts coverage and pass rush. 

Indianapolis Pass Defense 

Sep 17, 2023; Indianapolis Colts defensive end Kwity Paye (51) after sacking Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7). Mandatory Credit: Jenna Watson-USA TODAY Sports

The Colts rank 19th against the pass, surrendering 232.6 yards per game. They've allowed two 300-yard passers and 64.3% completion percentage while recording 20 sacks and 47 QB hits.

Samson Ebukam and Kwity Paye give the Colts an extremely quick pair of edge rushers. Ebukam has 11 pressures and four sacks, nearly equalling his career-best total with the 49ers and Rams. Paye, a 2021 first-round choice, is coming into his own with three sacks and 10 pressures. There's a drop-off from them to backups Dayo Odeyingbo and Tyquan Lewis, but both are high-motor players.

Eight-year DT DeForest Buckner is one of the league's best interior pass rushers. He has three sacks and nine pressures this year, but has averaged close to double-digit sack totals throughout his career. Taven Bryan (2 sacks, 3 pressures) was added as depth this offseason, but thrust into a bigger role because of a suspension to DT Grover Stewart and ankle injury to Eric Johnson. A 2018 first-round pick, Bryan has decent power but little impact as a pass rusher. 

Fourth-round rookie Adetomiwa Adebawore is a terrific athlete that can play inside or outside. He's seen little action so far (just 23 defensive snaps), but has a nice upside. He'll see more time if Johnson is unable to go on Sunday. 

Oct 15, 2023; Indianapolis Colts defensive end DeForest Buckner (99) sacks Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16). Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports

Indianapolis defensive coordinator Gus Bradley aggressively blitzes opponents, especially off the edge. The Colts have gotten five sacks and eight QB hits from linebackers or defensive backs. Sixth-year MLB Zaire Franklin, who leads the NFL in tackles, has 1.5 sacks and three pressures. He's also a good athlete that can get to the edge to cover backs or tight ends down the seam. 

Veteran LB Shaquille Leonard remains very good in coverage and a highly respected defender. Five-year veteran LB E.J. Speed has a sack, two pass breakups, and six tackles for loss and has been a pleasant surprise in coverage. 

Indianapolis has allowed four 100-yard receivers and three more with at least 70 yards. Rookie CB Julius Brents, a second-round choice, has intercepted one pass and broke up three others, but has given up nearly 67% completion rate when targeted. A big and physical corner, Brents left last week's game with a quad injury that leaves his Sunday status in question. 

Kenny Moore, the other starting corner, has allowed over 77% completion percentage while intercepting one throw and breaking up three others. Darrell Baker and Tony Brown provide depth at a cornerback position that doesn't have much athleticism and plays a lot of off-ball coverage. 

The Colts have two underrated and rangy safeties in Julian Blackmon and Rodney Thomas. Blackmon leads the team with two interceptions and has outstanding instincts. Thomas, a second-year seventh-round pick, led the Colts with four interceptions as a rookie and has added another this year.

New Orleans Passing Attack 

Oct 15, 2023; New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) looks to pass against the Houston Texans. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports

Derek Carr had his third 300-yard outing of the year and second in as many weeks last week against Jacksonville. However, things are far from efficient for a Saints passing game that has the third most attempts in the NFL but ranks just 12th in air yards.

Carr has completed 63.9% of his throws, but has just six touchdown passes against four interceptions. Too often, he's held onto the ball too long, misses open targets, and has been inaccurate or hesitant throwing into tight coverage. 

Carr's indecisiveness has exacerbated an already major issue with pass protection for an offensive line that's often been human turnstiles this season. If there's a bright side, it's that RT Ryan Ramczyk (concussion) and G/T James Hurst (ankle) have a good chance at returning from injuries that caused the Saints to start two backups and play another out of position against the Jaguars. 

Second-year LT Trevor Penning has been benched for the past two games for ineffective play. Even with Ramczyk and Hurst out, the Saints elected to promote Cam Erving from the practice squad, play Andrus Peat at LT, and Max Garcia at LG. Starting C Erik McCoy and RG Cesar Ruiz have been equally bad for a line that hasn't handled interior stunts and has made average edge rushers look like All-Pro players.

Since his return from suspension, RB Alvin Kamara has averaged nearly 10 targets and 9 receptions in four games. Kamara, the league's best receiving back, has just 177 yards through the air. However, he's a huge matchup advantage for the offense anywhere around the formation. 

Veteran RB Jamaal Williams has just two catches for seven yards and is little more than an emergency check-down option. Rookie RB Kendre Miller has seven receptions for 71 yards in five games of limited duty. While inexperienced, he's flashed big-play ability as a receiver. 

The Saints have used their tight ends little as receivers, often forced to keep one in as an extra pass blocker. Converted wideout Juwan Johnson has missed the last four games with a calf injury, but provides a mismatch once he's back in the lineup.

Foster Moreau is the only traditional in-line tight end of the group. He has 10 catches for 92 yards. Thirteen-year veteran Jimmy Graham isn't nearly what he once was, but still has great hands, good routes, and expertly uses his body to shield defenders. Inexplicably, offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael seems to have forgotten he's even on the roster. Graham has been targeted only twice, catching one pass for eight yards and a touchdown. 

Taysom Hill is well-known for his contributions as a runner. Hill can also throw the ball to keep defenses off balance and is starting to become a much bigger factor as a receiver. He's caught 15 passes, including 11 catches for 99 yards in the last two games. 

Sept. 24, 2023; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave (12) catches a pass against Green Bay Packers cornerback Corey Ballentine (35). © Wm. Glasheen/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin

The Saints have an outstanding wideout trio with Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Rashid Shaheed. Olave leads the team with 39 catches for 471 yards. He's a good route runner with great speed, but recent on-field behavior has led to questions about his maturity and work ethic. 

No such questions exist about Thomas, who has 34 receptions and 371 yards. Thomas has elite route precision and dominates defenders with his physicality and sure hands. Why he's not used in the middle of the field more remains one of the most baffling and infuriating questions about this offense. 

Shaheed threatens defenses with his speed and deep skills. Additionally, he's an underrated route runner that also doesn't get used often enough, but has had 14 targets the last two weeks. Shaheed has 20 catches for 326 yards and a team-high two touchdowns on the year. He's also added a 75-yard score and averages an NFL-high 18.3 yards as a punt returner. 

What to Expect 

Dec 16, 2019; New Orleans Saints receiver Michael Thomas (13) after a catch against the Indianapolis Colts. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

New Orleans must find a way to contain edge rushers Paye and Ebukam, along with Buckner on the interior and the additional rushers Indianapolis will bring via the blitz. Obviously a better performance from the offensive line is needed, but Carr could help himself by making more decisive decisions and throwing his receivers open.

New Orleans could, and should, attack the Colt linebackers with screens to Kamara and quick passes to their wideouts. If Indianapolis plays looser coverage, then there could be room to maneuver underneath. 

The Saints had success against Jacksonville by going up-tempo on a few second half drives. They SHOULD revisit that strategy, but also need to do a much better job with receiver spacing, using motion, and allowing their best players a chance to make plays in open space. 

New Orleans receivers look to have a major advantage against Colts corners. Indianapolis disguises coverages well, but they've been vulnerable all year in the middle of the field. It's not an area that the Saints have used often enough. If the fortunes of this struggling offense is to change, this is just one of many adjustments that New Orleans must make.