Saints May Again Lean on Passing Game at Packers

The Saints will likely need to again rely on their passing game for a road victory over Green Bay.

Derek Carr and the New Orleans passing attack have provided most of the offensive production through the first two weeks for a 2-0 Saints team. It hasn't always been pretty, but Carr is showing exactly why he was such a high priority for the team this offseason. The Saints have been a much more aggressive offense than the unit we've seen the last three years. 

New Orleans now travels to face the 1-1 Green Bay Packers. After finishing in the middle of the pack last season, the Packers rank 27th in total defense after two games. Most of their struggles have been against the run, where the Saints may also have issues because of a shorthanded backfield and underachieving offensive line. 

With backs Alvin Kamara (suspension) and Jamaal Williams (hamstring) out, New Orleans may again need to rely on Carr and the passing game. Here's how they match up against Green Bay's pass rush and secondary.

Saints Passing Attack vs. Packers Pass Defense 

Green Bay Pass Defense 

Sep 12, 2021; New Orleans Saints quarterback Jameis Winston (2) throws a pass under pressure from Green Bay Packers linebacker Rashan Gary (52). Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

A 17th ranked Green Bay pass defense has allowed 62.3% completion percentage and 212 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. It's also worth noting that those quarterbacks were Chicago's Justin Fields and Atlanta's Desmond Ridder, not exactly in the top echelon of passers.

The Packers have done a good job pressuring opposing quarterbacks. They've recorded five sacks along with 12 QB hits and an eye-popping 26 pressures. Second-year DE/DT Devonte Wyatt has four pressures and a team-high 1.5 sacks. Veteran DE/DT Kenny Clark is off to another strong start with a sack and six pressures. Nose tackle T.J. Slaton gets good interior push for the Packers 3-4 front, with rookie Karl Brooks providing excellent depth. 

Green Bay also has a trio of top-tier edge rushers. First-round pick Lukas Van Ness is off to an impressive start with a sack and three pressures, but may also be limited with an elbow injury. After a slow start to his career, 2019 first-round choice Rashan Gary has come on strong the last two seasons and has a half sack and four pressures so far. Reliable veteran Preston Smith remains a high-quality starter.

Off-ball linebackers Quay Walker and De'Vondre Campbell can be effective blitzers, but are more valued in coverage and open field pursuit. They have 21 tackles each, highest on the team, with Walker breaking up two passes and pulling in one of the team’s two interceptions.

Dec 25, 2022; Green Bay Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander (23) after intercepting a pass against the Miami Dolphins. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY

The Packers have one of the league's best cornerbacks in Jaire Alexander, who's coming off 14 passes broken up and a career-high five interceptions in 2022. Alexander is capable of locking up an opponent’s best wideout, but is dealing with a back injury that leaves him questionable for this game.

Seven-year veteran CB Rasul Douglas has been an ideal complement to Alexander. Douglas has 10 interceptions the last three years, including one this year while allowing just 58.3% completion percentage when targeted. With CB Eric Stokes on injured reserve and Alexander questionable, Keisean Nixon and seventh-round rookie Carrington Valentine are in line for more snaps against a talented trio of New Orleans wideouts. 

Former first-round pick Darnell Savage has developed into one of the league's better safeties. Savage has good range as a deep safety, but can also take on slot duties or man coverage against tight ends. Seventh-year journeyman Rudy Ford is the other safety, with Anthony Johnson and Jonathan Owens providing depth. 

New Orleans Passing Attack 

Sep 18, 2023; New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) passes the ball as Carolina Panthers linebacker Justin Houston (50) pursues. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY

Derek Carr has completed 63.8% of his passes for 533 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions through two games. He wasn't nearly as accurate against the Panthers as he was in Week 1, but still hit some crucial throws in the win.

Carr has the freedom to make changes at the line of scrimmage, something we haven't seen a lot of from this offense since Drew Brees retired. He's shown a nice grasp of the system already, but needs to hit some of the plays he missed early in the last two games.

Saints wideouts Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Rashid Shaheed have been the recipients of most of Carr's passes. The three have combined for 35 receptions and 466 yards; 87% of Carr's yardage output. 

Olave leads the team with 14 catches and 186 yards. He's made some spectacular plays on all three levels and seems poised to move into the upper echelon of the league's receivers.

Thomas has been Carr's primary target early in games and has been dominant through the intermediate zones. He has 12 receptions for 116 yards and is very much playing like a player with something to prove. 

Sept. 10, 2023; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Rashid Shaheed (22) catches a touchdown against the Tennessee Titans. © Andrew Nelles / Tennessean.com / USA TODAY NETWORK

Shaheed has picked up where he left off from his surprising rookie campaign. He's pulled in nine of his 10 targets for 152 yards and has provided the knockout blow in both wins. Shaheed and Olave are both deep threats, but are equally effective on underneath routes and lethal open field threats. 

Tight end Juwan Johnson is off to a bit of a slow start with five catches for 49 yards. However, Johnson proved to be a matchup problem during his breakout year of 2022 and looked to have nice chemistry with Carr during training camp.

Number two TE Foster Moreau has been ruled out with an ankle injury. That should mean more looks for 13-year veteran Jimmy Graham, especially as a situational weapon or near the end zone. Keith Kirkwood or rookie A.T. Perry round out the depth chart at wideout. 

Sept. 12; 2021; Saints TE Juwan Johnson (83) pulls in a touchdown pass against the Green Bay Packers. 

Without suspended RB Alvin Kamara, the Saints have targeted their running backs very little in the passing game. This could change with rookie RB Kendre Miller finally active after missing the first two games. Miller is a much better receiving threat than Tony Jones Jr., but Jones looks more reliable in blitz pickups.

As always, Taysom Hill is the wild card for the offense. Hill led the team with 75 yards rushing last week, but also threw one pass for eight yards and caught another for a minimal gain. Most of his snaps are as a wildcat quarterback, which makes him a passing threat if defenses overplay the run.

New Orleans is still struggling with pass protection. Carr has been sacked four times in each of the first two games and pressured a total of 16 times. Second-year LT Trevor Penning was slightly better in Week 2, but the Saints often shifted an extra blocker to his side. Continued improvement from him, and quickly, is vital. 

Normally stout RT Ryan Ramczyk more closely resembled a human turnstile against Carolina pass rushers. Hopefully that was an anomaly rather than an ongoing trend. Guards James Hurst, Cesar Ruiz, and C Erik McCoy have been extremely vulnerable to inside twists and stunts.

What to Expect 

Oct 22, 2017; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas (13) pulls in a pass against the Green Bay Packers. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY

Even if Jaire Alexander (back) plays, it's tough to see how the Packers have enough quality coverage to handle Olave, Thomas, Shaheed, and Johnson. Look for the Saints to also test Green Bay LBs Walker and Campbell early with passes outside to Kendre Miller and WR screens. 

Michael Thomas has been the boxing equivalent to working an opponent’s body early in a fight, with Olave and Shaheed providing the knockout combinations in the second half. Don't be surprised if New Orleans flips that script this afternoon by taking shots to Shaheed and Olave early, then working Thomas and Juwan Johnson down the middle of the field. 

One player to watch closest is Taysom Hill. Most of Hill’s rushing success against Carolina came on QB draws up the middle. I look for the Saints to set up those same kind of plays, but instead have Hill take some downfield shots against the Packers secondary. 

Sep 18, 2023; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave (12) catches a deep ball against the Carolina Panthers. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Pass protection is obviously critical, but especially with running backs Kamara and Williams both sidelined. Green Bay has a potentially lethal combination of outside rushers in Gary, Van Ness, and Smith to go along with a disruptive inside rush of Wyatt and Clark.

How the New Orleans line responds to that challenge is probably the number one key to the outcome of the game.