Saints Must Protect Passer, But Could Have Major Advantages Over Panthers Defense
New Orleans Saints QB Derek Carr had a strong debut in his first game with the team. Carr completed 23 of 33 passes for 305 yards in a 16-15 opening week win over the Tennessee Titans. He threw the game's only touchdown and became just the second quarterback in franchise history to throw for over 300 yards in his first game with the team. Carr's 300-yard performance was also the first for the Saints in a winning effort since Drew Brees on Christmas Day in 2020.
It wasn't all roses. The Saints missed a few scoring opportunities that would have blown the game open. There were major pass protection issues throughout the game, often putting Carr under heavy duress. Still, this was leaps and bounds better than the passing game we've seen from the Saints over the previous three years.
New Orleans now travels to face NFC South rival Carolina Panthers on Monday night football. A listless Saints team was physically dominated by an inferior Panthers squad the last two times they've made this trip. New Orleans also turned the ball over five times (4 interceptions), were unable to protect their quarterback, and scored just 21 total points in those losses.
The Panthers (0-1) lost their opener on the road to Atlanta. They return most of the defensive personnel that caused New Orleans fits, but changed their base defensive scheme this offseason.
The Saints will need a balanced offense, but may still lean a little more towards the pass without suspended RB Alvin Kamara. Here's how they'll match up against Carolina's pass defense.
Saints Passing Attack vs. Panthers Pass Defense
New Orleans Passing Game
Sep 10, 2023; New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) throws the ball in the fourth quarter against the Tennessee Titans. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Nelles-USA TODAY Sports
Carr showed exactly why the Saints targeted him to take over this offseason. Despite heavy pressure, he remained composed and was able to make a few key throws on the run. He was off-target on a couple passes early on, but otherwise showed promising accuracy on intermediate and deep throws.
Carr also made several pre-snap calls at the line, showing both a good grasp of the system and the coaches trust in him. He may need to spread the ball around more going forward, but still showed the ability to hit the open man in critical situations.
Simply stated, the Saints offensive line was abysmal against Tennessee. Carr was sacked four times, all in the first half, as the Titans recorded nine pressures on the afternoon. Second-year LT Trevor Penning was responsible for three of those sacks and several hits, making journeyman DE/OLB Arden Key look like a perennial All-Pro.
New Orleans used a back or tight end to help Penning through most of the second half. Only making his second NFL start, the 2022 first-round choice must showcase his physical talents better and improve quickly. Penning wasn't the only problem. Guards James Hurst, Cesar Ruiz, and C Erik McCoy had issues with the twists and stunts the Titans ran at them inside. Normally reliable RT Ryan Ramczyk also had problems and gave up some alarming pressures.
Sep 25, 2022; New Orleans Saints receiver Chris Olave (12) catches the ball against Carolina Panthers cornerback CJ Henderson (24). Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Despite those inefficiencies, Carr showed outstanding chemistry with his wide receivers. Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Michael Thomas combined to catch 18 of 24 targets for 263 yards. Thomas showed up big early, establishing himself as a physical presence and opening chances up for his teammates later. He's a key target through the intermediate areas across the middle and along the sidelines.
Second-year WRs Olave and Shaheed were arguably the biggest factors in last week's victory, certainly on offense. Olave led all receivers with eight catches for 112 yards, with most of those crucial plays to keep drives alive. Most of Shaheed's five receptions for 89 yards and a touchdown also came at vital moments down the stretch.
Both Shaheed and Olave offer big-play threats, but each are also underrated route runners developing rapidly. Either are also lethal weapons in the open field on WR screens, plays we could see more of in Kamara's absence.
Without Kamara, the Saints didn't use their backs as receivers often against the Titans. This may change if rookie RB Kendre Miller can play this week. Miller missed Week 1 with a hamstring injury, but has valuable open field skills and pass catching agility if healthy. Starting RB Jamaal Williams is an adequate receiver on check-downs, but doesn't have the same receiving skills as Miller or certainly Kamara.
Versatile weapon Taysom Hill is also an underrated receiver, either on quick throws or when sneaking downfield. Hill can also present a matchup problem when lining up as a "wildcat" quarterback. He's obviously a terrific runner, but can also hit big throws if the defense overplays his rushing threat.
Jan 3, 2021; New Orleans Saints TE Juwan Johnson (83) after a catch against the Carolina Panthers. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY
New Orleans tight ends weren't a big part of the game plan last week. Juwan Johnson caught three balls for 36 yards, but neither Foster Moreau or Jimmy Graham were targeted. That may change drastically against Carolina.
Johnson, Graham, and Moreau all present matchup problems. They are each capable blockers, but all three are legitimate receiving threats even down the field. If the Saints go with an extra tight end or even a jumbo package, these three still give Derek Carr bona-fide receiving threats anywhere on the field.
Carolina Pass Defense
Sep 25, 2022; New Orleans Saints quarterback Jameis Winston (2) looks to pass under pressure from Carolina Panthers defensive end Brian Burns (53). Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY
After ranking 22nd against the pass in 2022, the Panthers gave up only 115 passing yards to Falcons QB Desmond Ridder in Week 1. It's also important to note that Ridder only attempted 18 throws, completing 15, with a touchdown and no interceptions. The Panthers also sacked Ridder four times and recorded six QB hits.
Carolina didn't deal with anything close to a top-tier quarterback or receiving corps when facing Atlanta. This is largely the same Panthers coverage unit from last year that allowed 66% completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks and six 100-yard receivers, with nine more of at least 70 yards.
With Panthers CB Jaycee Horn (hamstring) on injured reserve, the secondary will be even thinner. Sixth-year CB Donte Jackson is their best remaining cover option. Jackson has 14 interceptions over his first five seasons, but has allowed over 68% completion percentage when targeted the last two years.
Horn's absence will probably force the Panthers to use versatile S Jeremy Chinn in more corner responsibilities. Chinn is a playmaker and valuable chess piece, but not a prototypical corner. Carolina's other cornerback options are nine-year veteran backup Troy Hill and wildly inconsistent former first-round choice C.J. Henderson.
In addition to Chinn, the Panthers have two other very good safeties in cagey veteran Xavier Woods and former Saint Vonn Bell. Woods isn't used much in slot coverage, but has the instincts to give him good range on the back end. The versatile Bell is an asset in slot coverage, as a blitzer, and in a deep safety role.
Jan 8, 2023; Carolina Panthers linebacker Frankie Luvu (49) blocks a pass from New Orleans Saints quarterback Andy Dalton (14). Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
Carolina inside linebackers Shaq Thompson and Frankie Luvu play different, but equally important roles in the team's new 3-4 base alignment. Luvu is adequate in coverage, but is far more effective and disruptive rushing the passer. Thompson is usually used in zone duties, but can be erratic in man responsibilities.
Even though they're listed as outside linebackers, former DEs Brian Burns and Yetur Gross-Matos still play essentially the same role. The Panthers also added veteran Justin Houston this offseason to give them a potentially lethal trio of edge rushers.
Burns had two sacks against Atlanta and may thrive in new defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero's scheme. It may also suit the athleticism of the inconsistent Gross-Matos, while Houston has put up big numbers in this system before.
Former Number one pick Derrick Brown needs better production for this team up front. Former Saints DT Shy Tuttle serves as the nose tackle on a front line thin on big bodies and production.
What to Watch
Jan 7, 2018; New Orleans Saints receiver Michael Thomas (13) catches a pass against the Carolina Panthers. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY
The first thing that the Saints must do is protect both their quarterback and the football. In their last two trips to Carolina, New Orleans quarterbacks have thrown four interceptions and have been pressured 30 times while being sacked five.
This is a different quarterback in Derek Carr, but big questions remain on the offensive line. Burns, in particular, has destroyed New Orleans blocking. He and Derrick Brown will likely be lined up on Penning's side most of the time, so expect the Saints to shift help over that direction.
Expect the Saints to try and establish the run and operate a quick rhythm passing game to protect Carr. If they can protect him, New Orleans wideouts and tight ends look to have a big advantage against the Carolina secondary.
The Panthers may open with a softer coverage because of their shortages at cornerback and to protect against big plays from Olave and Shaheed. If so, look for increased opportunities underneath for Michael Thomas, Juwan Johnson, and Jimmy Graham.
Olave, who had nine catches for 207 yards in two meetings against the Panthers last year, and Shaheed will also be used on screens and quick throws underneath in the open field. New Orleans will have to withstand the test of the Panthers edge rushers, but offensive success in Week 2 should again come down to Carr and his receiving weapons.
